Global shipment volume of optical transceivers is projected to more than triple from 26.5 million units in 2023 to over 92 million units by 2026, according to TrendForce’s latest AI infrastructure research. This massive market opportunity—combined with geopolitical factors—is driving a restructuring of the global optical communications supply chain. It is also accelerating outsourcing strategies among U.S. vendors in Southeast Asia, creating an entry point for non-traditional technology players to move into AI optical communications.
TrendForce’s latest foundry industry findings point out that AI demand has surged rapidly since 2023, leading to capacity bottlenecks in 3 nm–2 nm wafers and 2.5D/3D advanced packaging. The shortage of CoWoS has persisted, extending upstream to production equipment and downstream to substrates, packaging materials, and other critical components.
TrendForce’s latest research shows that the MLCC market in 2Q26 is showing a clear split between robust AI-driven demand and soft consumer demand. The U.S.–Iran conflict has pushed up oil and natural gas prices, driving higher energy and transportation costs. Consumer price indexes (CPI) across major economies rose in March, with inflation expected to intensify and weigh on end-market demand and corporate capital spending.
TrendForce’s latest research indicates that the global market for AI-focused optical transceivers has entered a phase of rapid growth, with market size projected to expand from US$16.5 billion in 2025 to $26 billion in 2026, representing over 57% YoY growth. This surge is driven not only by specification upgrades but also reflects a broader structural reshaping of the optical communications supply chain amid accelerating AI data center deployment.
Although AI demand will continue to drive both general-purpose servers and AI servers in 2026, suppliers are prioritizing capacity allocation to higher-market AI server products, according to TrendForce’s latest server industry findings.
