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The upward trend in memory prices persists into 1Q26, with no clear signals of a cessation appearing so far for the year. Amidst this super-cycle of price hikes, although smartphone brands have struggled to maintain operations through retail price adjustments and product mix optimization, total production volumes have shifted to a year-on-year decline, with the magnitude of the drop continuing to widen. It is worth noting that despite the pessimistic outlook, brands remain hesitant to breach the Long-Term Agreements (LTAs) established with suppliers, aiming to avoid facing tighter supply and even higher procurement costs in the future.
TrendForce offers you a complete analysis on DRAM industry supply/demand sufficiency, cost analysis and price forecast.
TrendForce offers you a complete analysis on NAND Flash industry supply/demand sufficiency, cost analysis and price forecast.
Since the second half of 2025, the smartphone market has been trapped in a closed cycle: tight memory supply and skyrocketing costs have forced up end-device prices, subsequently weakening demand. To cope with this adverse environment, smartphone brands are expected to revise production volumes downward and adjust product specifications and price bands. While brands have not yet significantly lowered their production targets for 1Q26, they are bound to scale back subsequent production plans if the decline in demand exceeds expectations.
This report will show surveys of the mainstream smartphone panel sizes' quote prices, which will be categorized by including different resolutions, specifications, modules or product formations such as cell or glass. Prices will be also presented by their high-, low- and average-price levels for customers' references. Besides, smartphone panel price forecast is newly added, it could keep clients updated on smartphone panel price trend in the year to come.
Starting in 3Q25, memory prices are expected to experience a significant surge, with this upward trend projected to persist through at least 1Q26. This rally is substantially inflating Bill of Materials (BOM) costs and forcing increases in end-device pricing. Consequently, TrendForce has further downgraded its forecast for 2026 global smartphone production volumes; should costs continue to rise or economic conditions deteriorate, the year-on-year decline may expand further. Future market trends will be subject to rolling adjustments based on brands' strategies regarding margin absorption, price fluctuations of other components, the extent of specification downgrades, and price sensitivity across various segments. Notably, entry-level products currently face the most severe pressure and risk of elimination.
Quarterly Smartphone Market Status Update tracks on global smartphones market trend. Through the discussion of market scale, trend of panel spec, cost and price changes as well as the movement of capacity and utilization of smartphones, TrendForce keeps its clients up to date to the smartphone market’s potential development.
In 4Q25, memory price increases for Chinese smartphone OEMs surpassed those for US OEMs, prompting suppliers to implement "catch-up" price hikes for US clients in 1Q26 to balance regional price disparities. While initial estimates suggest absolute pricing for Chinese clients may remain slightly lower than for US clients, the possibility of expanded hikes due to delayed or combined negotiations with 2Q26 remains. This wave of memory price increases has far exceeded expectations, significantly driving up smartphone BOM costs. Under this immense pressure, brands are compelled to raise prices on new devices, scale back promotions, or accelerate the EOL of older models to maintain operational quality and cash flow.
Memory price surge continues into 1Q26, pushing BOM cost to a critical point. Brands freeze price cuts and downsize specifications, facing severe sales challenges.
Mobile DRAM revenue surged due to peak season demand and soaring contract prices, intensified by supplier bidding wars. While smartphone production saw a slight short-term upward revision, rising memory costs are eroding low-end brand profitability, threatening future output. The accelerated shift to high-end specifications continues to drive prices upward amid supply tightness.
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