1Q26 Mobile DRAM contract prices were fully finalized in mid-March, with the QoQ increase being the most moderate among all applications. However, to maintain a profitability balance across different applications, TrendForce believes that suppliers are highly likely to initiate a pronounced "catch-up price hike" for smartphones in 2Q26. Under extreme cost pressure, Chinese brands have, in a rare move, begun retroactively raising the retail prices of older models, while non-Chinese majors are facing a similarly severe test in their end-device pricing strategies. Overall, a further downward revision of the total global smartphone production volume for 2026 is virtually inevitable.
AI demands and chip upgrades drive smartphone storage growth despite high costs. Brands raise base specs, making large capacities the new standard.
Mobile DRAM revenue hit new highs driven by surging contract prices, confirming a seller-driven super cycle. Major manufacturers shifting capacity to AI applications has tightened supply, allowing CXMT to expand in mature nodes. Looking ahead, sharp price hikes will boost supplier profits, but high costs are forcing smartphone brands to cut production, leading to a market of rising prices and shrinking volumes.
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Propelled by surging contract prices, Mobile DRAM revenue broke the $10 billion mark in 4Q25, a quarterly jump of over 30%. Entering the off-peak 1Q26, while bit demand is expected to contract, the significant hike in contract prices should still drive revenue to new highs. In terms of market structure, a highly concentrated "Big Four" landscape has formed, comprising Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and China’s CXMT. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Nanya and Winbond have seen revenue surge as major players exit the low-density market, though their overall market share remains limited.
As the mid-to-long term development remains an uncertain perspective of the market intelligence analysis, the Trendforce research team focuses on the five major applications, TV, monitor, NB, tablet, and smartphone, and projects the demand trend for the next five years while taking into account macroeconomics and technology upgrades. In addition, the penetration rate forecast of key product spec is also included as a reference for long-term operation.
Global smartphone production showed moderate growth in 2025, with Samsung and Apple tying for the top spot in market share. However, driven by sharply rising memory prices, overall production volume is projected to see a significant downward revision in 2026. Brands will experience polarization based on their differing product portfolios. Overall, the memory price supercycle will be the key variable reshaping the global smartphone market landscape in 2026.
The 1Q26 DRAM price rally is led by Server and PC applications, while a compensatory price increase for smartphone LPDRAM cannot be ruled out for 2Q26. With conservative NAND Flash capacity expansion and market inventory at low levels, conditions remain favorable for continued price increases in 2Q26. Although continuous sharp increases in memory prices have caused a decline in demand for consumer end-products, the overall memory market is expected to remain in shortage, underpinned by strong demand for AI servers. Simultaneously, impacted by significantly rising manufacturing costs, the reshuffling of the smartphone market will accelerate, with high-end brands standing to benefit relatively more.
This report will show surveys of the mainstream smartphone panel sizes' quote prices, which will be categorized by including different resolutions, specifications, modules or product formations such as cell or glass. Prices will be also presented by their high-, low- and average-price levels for customers' references. Besides, smartphone panel price forecast is newly added, it could keep clients updated on smartphone panel price trend in the year to come.
Quarterly Smartphone Panel Shipment keeps track on global major panel makers’ shipment scale and movement on smartphone panels. This report specially provides analysis on ranges of delivered panel sizes, take close control on the movement of smartphone sizes development.
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