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AI drives surging memory demand, prompting capex revisions. However, limited cleanroom space and a shift to advanced tech over raw capacity will constrain future bit output growth. Equipment vendors are optimistic, yet memory tech hurdles rise.
DRAM prices are surging across contract and spot markets due to severe supply constraints. Capital expenditure shifts to advanced products, limiting traditional bit growth.
4Q25 mobile DRAM contract prices have risen sharply due to tight supply-demand and competitive bidding among chipmakers, with smartphone applications seeing particularly large increases. This upward trend is expected to continue into 2026. The recent steep DRAM price rises may force up retail prices of end products and weigh on demand.
Strong CSP demand is driving server DRAM prices significantly higher, with 4Q25 increases revised upwards. CSPs are proactively securing 2027 supply, incentivizing manufacturers to boost capacity, signaling a sustained upward price trend.
Besides the mainstream product segments of the DRAM market, TrendForce’s research now encompasses specialty (consumer) DRAM products as well. Analyses in this area pertain to product development plans and production outputs of suppliers, price trends, etc.
Driven by tight original manufacturer supply and aggressive PC OEM procurement, 4Q25 PC DRAM contract prices are projected to rise 25-30%, with spot prices also surging.
CSP demand and panic buying are propelling DRAM price surges, creating a seller's market. Consumer DRAM supply tightens next year due to major manufacturer exits and capacity shifts, ensuring continued price increases.
AI servers lead growth; cloud build-outs lift ODMs/thermal. AMD ramps; TPU up; shift to L2L cooling. Supply chain heat-up end to end.
Supply bottlenecks and migration curb NAND output; enterprise SSD crowds out eMMC/UFS, lifting prices into next year.
Tariffs and policy changes kept early demand cautious, but cloud expansion and AI investment have lifted memory demand and pricing, tightening DRAM supply. The DDR5 uptrend is established, with profitability likely to surpass HBM3e; vendors’ capacity allocation and pricing strategies will reshape the market landscape.
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