With mobile DRAM inventory restocking largely completed and demand starting to soften, the urgency of procurement negotiations has diminished, and 3Q26 contract price settlements are likely to be pushed back further. On the pricing front, Samsung’s hikes have clearly moderated this quarter, as its previous quotes were already at elevated levels; by contrast, if SK hynix and CXMT aim to close the pricing gap, their increases will appear relatively more pronounced. TrendForce projects that the overall quarterly hike will narrow from last quarter to around 8-13% QoQ.
Looking ahead to 4Q26, under the combined pressure of weak end demand and elevated inventory levels, price increases are expected to further converge. However, the ongoing trend of suppliers shifting capacity toward server and HBM applications will remain intact, providing key support for keeping quarterly contract prices from falling back.
Server DRAM contract prices are trending upward. Supply shortages and HBM crowding effects strengthen vendor pricing power. High-capacity module premiums are narrowing due to stable yields and demand shifts. Despite temporarily rising inventory levels, long-term market tightness is expected to intensify as processor supply recovers.
PC DRAM quarterly contract prices continue to rise, though gains have narrowed, leaving buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate. Crowded out by server demand, original manufacturers' future supply is expected to shrink significantly. On the demand side, rising end-market retail prices are suppressing consumer spending, leading to a sharp drop in notebook shipments. While buyers are highly price-sensitive and actively resisting steep price hikes, manufacturers retain bargaining power, with rigid baseline demand continuing to support resilient prices.
Although consumer demand is weakening due to cost pressures—causing spot prices to invert below contract prices—structural supply shortages persist as major manufacturers reallocate capacity toward high-performance and server applications. Supported by automotive, industrial, and networking demand, memory contract prices remain on an upward trajectory, though price growth is moderating toward a more tempered pace.
Besides the mainstream product segments of the DRAM market, TrendForce’s research now encompasses specialty (consumer) DRAM products as well. Analyses in this area pertain to product development plans and production outputs of suppliers, price trends, etc.
DRAM suppliers are holding firm on pricing, but weaker buyer acceptance has stalled contract negotiations, and spot trading remains thin. Despite softening consumer demand, buyers continue to stockpile defensively on supply constraints and shortage expectations, leaving the market in a wait-and-see standoff: prices consolidating at elevated levels while inventories build.
Driven by strong demand from cloud service providers, the demand for HBM and server modules has surged. However, constrained by long equipment lead times and capacity reallocation, supply growth continues to lag behind. As traditional memory is severely squeezed, the market supply deficit remains difficult to resolve, keeping prices elevated. Consequently, capital expenditures and procurement strategies require continued close attention.
Driven by robust AI server demand and capacity displacement from HBM, combined with delayed output from new fabs, DRAM supply remains tightly constrained, sustaining a seller's market. Conversely, boosted by the rollout of new capacity alongside weak consumer demand, NAND Flash is shifting toward a looser supply-demand structure and will face downward price adjustment pressure in the second half of the year, underscoring a clear divergence in their market cycles.
Global Server Market – Trends and Outlook for 3Q26
In 2027, supply–demand dynamics for DRAM and NAND Flash are expected to diverge. On the one hand, strong pull ins from AI servers will further widen the supply gap for DRAM. On the other hand, for NAND, weak consumer side demand combined with higher bit output driven by process migrations is likely to push the sufficiency ratio from negative to positive, placing downward pressure on prices in 2H27. However, if only NAND prices correct, the overall relief on total component costs for consumer products will remain quite limited. Overall, the pricing trajectory in 2027 still carries a high degree of uncertainty.
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