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Memory price surge continues into 1Q26, pushing BOM cost to a critical point. Brands freeze price cuts and downsize specifications, facing severe sales challenges.
Driven by price hikes rather than volume, holiday sales mask weak demand, leading to a conservative Q1 outlook and strict inventory control. However, strong demand for AI chips (e.g., TPUs) boosts high-end MLCCs. Suppliers are expanding in SE Asia and prepping capacity for future AI growth.
CapEx figures, production capacity figures, and inventory levels of MLCC suppliers are constantly being tracked and updated on a regular basis. TrendForce also provides analyses on the price trends and inventory statuses of production-related materials.
With slowed global growth and weak demand in consumer and automotive markets, AI infrastructure drives MLCC profit; polarization ahead as high-end product demand rises, impacting vendor strategies.
Soaring memory prices increase system costs and retail prices, hurting the consumer market. TrendForce thus lowered 2026 shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks, and game consoles. Game console makers may abandon price cuts due to costs, shifting to high-price, profit-preserving strategies.
Driven by mobile and AI demand, leading MLCC suppliers maintained stable performance; consumer and automotive segments face pricing pressure.
Seasonal stocking falls short, 1Q26 MLCC demand weakens, ODM shipments decline. Consumer markets in China and US weaken, orders for mobiles and laptops fall, DRAM prices rise. Suppliers control production, MLCC demand soft. AI demand steady, major suppliers expand capacity.
Memory is entering a strong upward cycle, driving a significant rise in overall device BOM cost. To maintain profit margins, brands are adjusting their high-, mid-, and low-tier product mixes and implementing tiered hikes on retail prices. Soaring memory prices, coupled with a weak macro economy, create dual headwinds that will suppress production and shipment momentum for consumer electronics in 2026.
Q4 sees a polarized demand in the electronics sector：consumer weak, AI strong. Holiday stocking cools; suppliers pivot to 2026 AI. NVIDIA's new architecture boosts MLCC use. Capacitor price hikes change BOM; MLCC wins.
Weak seasonal demand prompts conservative ODM stockpiling. US government shutdown and weak consumer sentiment dampen spending. China/global electronics orders slump; only AI server/MLCC orders hold. Consumer MLCC prices bottom at cost, amid supplier cost cuts, production adjustments.
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