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The 1Q26 DRAM market has entered a seller-driven super-cycle fueled by robust AI demand. Capacity crowding is triggering broad price surges, with forecasts being revised upward. As manufacturers prioritize high-margin server orders, the PC and consumer sectors face severe shortages and soaring costs.
Driven by strong demand from US and China CSPs, 2026 AI server shipments will surge. Key drivers include NVIDIA and Google's ASICs, accelerating liquid cooling adoption. While general server refresh cycles aid growth, supply chain lead times remain a potential bottleneck.
Driven by robust AI demand, the memory market has shifted to a seller's market. Manufacturers are prioritizing server capacity, causing severe shortages and low inventory for consumer electronics. Structural imbalances are driving up prices, forcing consumer sectors to face supply constraints and specification downgrades, with shortages expected to persist.
TrendForce combines its expertise in memory market and leverage it to provide a multi-faceted study of server market in this report. The content of it is as follows:
1. Server CPU Market: State of Competition and Market Shares
2. Server Procurement by Cloud Service Providers in North America and China
3. Projection on Shipments of Server Storage Products
4. Projection on Server Shipments for Current Year
5. Major ODM Partners of Critical Server Brands
6. Changes on Volumes in Server DRAM Procurement
7. Trends in SSD Procurement and Projections on Storage Form-Factors and Interfaces
8. Shares of Enterprise and Hyperscaler Servers in Memory Consumption.
Driven by supply constraints from the shift to DDR5 and suppliers' reluctance to sell, DDR4 prices have surged. DDR3 prices followed suit due to reduced output. Strong spot market performance suggests Consumer DRAM contract prices will continue their upward trend in the coming quarter.
Server DRAM prices surge due to depleted inventory and robust AI demand. HBM expansion squeezes standard supply, causing shortages. Suppliers prioritize major CSPs, cutting allocations for others. Significant price hikes are expected to continue as buyers scramble to secure stock.
Led by Samsung, DRAM contract prices are rising significantly, driven primarily by Server DRAM. The spot market remains strong despite year-end factors, with DDR4 supply tightening. Suppliers hold leverage with low inventory, while most buyers—except for top-tier brands—face declining stocks and severe procurement challenges, highlighting a polarized supply shortage.
PC DRAM contract prices surged significantly in late 2025. Manufacturers prioritized strategic clients due to tight capacity, raising costs for OEMs relying on modules. Anticipated hikes boosted demand. With a solidified seller's market, price growth is expected to accelerate further next quarter.
AI demand drives a 1Q26 seller's market. Capacity shifts to servers cause shortages. DRAM and NAND Flash prices rise broadly despite weak consumer demand.
The recent Taiwan earthquake caused brief stoppages and minor wafer scrap in northern fabs. With no major facility damage and spare capacity available for makeup, operations are recovering strictly. The overall financial and operational impact is assessed as minimal.
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