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Supply bottlenecks and migration curb NAND output; enterprise SSD crowds out eMMC/UFS, lifting prices into next year.
Tariffs and policy changes kept early demand cautious, but cloud expansion and AI investment have lifted memory demand and pricing, tightening DRAM supply. The DDR5 uptrend is established, with profitability likely to surpass HBM3e; vendors’ capacity allocation and pricing strategies will reshape the market landscape.
Micron's capacity shift to high-margin products sharply boosted its quotes by limiting standard DRAM supply. SK hynix saw a milder rise. The spot market price increased due to strong demand and stock withholding, signaling tight supply.
Global AI server market stays strong as major cloud providers expand infrastructure and platforms; GPU and self-developed ASIC demand rises amid regional dynamics.
Contract DRAM prices are expected to surge significantly, with Micron leading. Spot market sellers are holding back due to strong outlook, causing DDR4 scarcity and DDR5 price hikes. AI's evolution from training-centric HBM to agent-driven CPU and conventional server DRAM demands will broadly boost the memory market.
TrendForce forecasts a structural memory price hike by 2026. Strong AI server demand and profit-first supplier strategies lead to capacity shifting towards high-margin applications, driving widespread DRAM and NAND Flash price increases, despite weak consumer demand.
The server market notes North American cloud providers as the growth engine, with enterprise OEMs cautious, and AI servers plus efficient cooling as priorities. Key players like Compal and Supermicro focus on AI servers and new cabinet offerings, eyeing Middle East opportunities and regional capacity, while shipment timing is influenced by regional plant starts.
The DRAM market is robust, with prices surging across contract and spot sectors, firmly establishing a seller-driven environment due to tightening supply. Micron's AI-driven performance and HBM leadership are stellar, with continued price increases expected as supply remains constrained.
Sep consumer DRAM contract price growth slowed. Looking ahead, strong CSP server demand displaces capacity, pushing 4Q25 consumer DRAM to double-digit hikes, with the rally extending into 1H26.
2025 DRAM contract prices are rising. Manufacturers prioritize strong server demand, tightening PC DRAM supply. OEMs may adjust procurement strategies to counter future price hikes.
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