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Global Server Market Trends and Outlook for 2H25
The global server market sees moderate growth driven by AI investments and major cloud providers adopting advanced AI chips amid trade uncertainties.
DRAM contract prices rise in late August, spot market slows, suppliers’ inventory down, and market dynamics diverge by segment.
In 2Q25, global smartphone production reached approximately 300 million units, up 4% quarter-over-quarter and 4.8% year-over-year. In terms of market share, Samsung maintained its leading position, benefiting from stable demand for its A series and proactive inventory buildup in response to U.S. tariffs, achieving improved production compared to the previous year. Apple ranked second globally; while facing challenges in China due to Huawei’s resurgence and setbacks in AI-related topics, it managed to sustain first-half sales in China at last year’s level through price reductions and subsidy strategies. Xiaomi maintained steady growth and ranked third worldwide, relying on expansion into emerging markets and benefiting from favorable policies in China.
In the mobile DRAM market, price disparities among different applications remain significant. Due to greater-than-expected increases in 3Q25 contract prices, pricing negotiations in the PC and smartphone sectors have progressed slowly, while prices for consumer products are being updated frequently. The volatility in mobile DRAM prices is increasing end-product costs and may dampen future sales momentum.
3Q25 DRAM contract prices has been set in Aug., DDR5 rising modestly while the shipments increasing. Spot market stays calm, DDR4 is influenced by potential Samsung EOL delay. TrendForce update on CXMT’s focus includes capacity expansion, high-value products, and technological advancements.
Geopolitical and tariff risks accelerate US local server ODM production, with strong growth in AI server shipments driven by NVIDIA and AMD platforms; cooling technology advances boost supplier growth amid stable capacity and cautious demand.
Contract negotiations see Samsung under pressure, while spot prices hold due to tight supply. Samsung's call highlights HBM3e oversupply and likely price declines. Despite higher mature DRAM prices, Samsung remains committed to advanced process and HBM investment, with its strategy unchanged despite market fluctuations.
In 2025, the electronics industry sees diverging trends: strong AI demand, weak consumer devices, early pull-in erases seasonality, and future growth slows.
In the second half of 2025, DDR4 faces structural shortages and soaring prices due to limited capacity and robust demand, with supply prioritized for servers. PC and consumer markets struggle with high prices and low availability, accelerating DDR5 adoption amid unresolved supply tension.
PC DRAM contract prices rose this quarter, with DDR4 increasing more than DDR5. Tight supply, strong Nanya output, and overall price consolidation are observed, with DDR4 showing higher prices on lower volume.
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