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US policy shifts ease chip export bans, boosting AI server shipments growth; major tech firms expand AI data centers globally.
Recent DRAM contract talks stalled; DDR5 gains moderating, DDR4 spot stabilizing. Looking ahead, supply and demand growth will significantly slow. Elevated inventory and weak end-demand point to contract price pressure in the early part of next year.
Contract price rises are slowing, and spot market gains are limited. Suppliers are reducing LPDDR4X supply while mid-range smartphone demand remains strong, leading to panic buying. Although some production cuts may slow, the market trend is towards new-generation products.
This issue highlights server ODMs, CPUs, GPUs, and key changes in the thermal supply chain. AI servers are the focus, CSPs keep ordering, ODMs prep for new platforms, Meta and Google push in-house CPUs, with rising cooling needs. Geopolitical risks still impact the outlook.
MRDIMM addresses high-core CPU and AI needs, enhancing memory efficiency, but standards, cost, and support limit adoption.
The contract market focus shifts to the next quarter, with legacy products seeing clear price increases. Spot market transactions center on DDR4, with prices under pressure but no obvious oversupply. Inventory trends favor buyers, PC and module makers stock up, supply tightness persists for some items, while enterprise and smartphone inventories diverge.
LPDDR4X supply has tightened rapidly due to reduced production and EOL plans by major suppliers, driving prices sharply higher. Under dual pressure from supply constraints and price surges, smartphone brands are accelerating the shift to LPDDR5X, though entry- and mid-tier models face challenges converting due to processor limitations.
DRAM contract prices steadily rise, DDR4 tight supply drives migration to new-gen products. Micron outperforms, shifts to value-added focus.
PC DRAM contract prices in Q2 2025 continue to rise, with DDR4 outpacing DDR5 due to changing supply-demand dynamics. Reduced supply, early procurement, and increased Nanya participation all contribute to higher prices, with DDR4 surpassing DDR5 in Q3.
The DDR4 EOL notice sparked a buying spree, causing significant spot and contract price hikes, especially for DDR4 8/16Gb. Supply-demand imbalance persists with further contract price increases expected. Consumer DRAM faces shortages, while DDR3 remains price stable due to ample supply.
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