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Quarterly Smartphone Market Status Update tracks on global smartphones market trend. Through the discussion of market scale, trend of panel spec, cost and price changes as well as the movement of capacity and utilization of smartphones, TrendForce keeps its clients up to date to the smartphone market’s potential development.
1Q26 Mobile DRAM contract prices were fully finalized in mid-March, with the QoQ increase being the most moderate among all applications. However, to maintain a profitability balance across different applications, TrendForce believes that suppliers are highly likely to initiate a pronounced "catch-up price hike" for smartphones in 2Q26. Under extreme cost pressure, Chinese brands have, in a rare move, begun retroactively raising the retail prices of older models, while non-Chinese majors are facing a similarly severe test in their end-device pricing strategies. Overall, a further downward revision of the total global smartphone production volume for 2026 is virtually inevitable.
AI demands and chip upgrades drive smartphone storage growth despite high costs. Brands raise base specs, making large capacities the new standard.
Mobile DRAM revenue hit new highs driven by surging contract prices, confirming a seller-driven super cycle. Major manufacturers shifting capacity to AI applications has tightened supply, allowing CXMT to expand in mature nodes. Looking ahead, sharp price hikes will boost supplier profits, but high costs are forcing smartphone brands to cut production, leading to a market of rising prices and shrinking volumes.
Market Flash is a dedicated membership program that provides clients with access to special reports on display-related markets, offering timely insights and exclusive research updates through a secure delivery platform. Reports are typically provided in PDF format and released on an ad-hoc basis.
Propelled by surging contract prices, Mobile DRAM revenue broke the $10 billion mark in 4Q25, a quarterly jump of over 30%. Entering the off-peak 1Q26, while bit demand is expected to contract, the significant hike in contract prices should still drive revenue to new highs. In terms of market structure, a highly concentrated "Big Four" landscape has formed, comprising Samsung, SK hynix, Micron, and China’s CXMT. Meanwhile, Taiwan’s Nanya and Winbond have seen revenue surge as major players exit the low-density market, though their overall market share remains limited.
As the mid-to-long term development remains an uncertain perspective of the market intelligence analysis, the Trendforce research team focuses on the five major applications, TV, monitor, NB, tablet, and smartphone, and projects the demand trend for the next five years while taking into account macroeconomics and technology upgrades. In addition, the penetration rate forecast of key product spec is also included as a reference for long-term operation.
Global smartphone production showed moderate growth in 2025, with Samsung and Apple tying for the top spot in market share. However, driven by sharply rising memory prices, overall production volume is projected to see a significant downward revision in 2026. Brands will experience polarization based on their differing product portfolios. Overall, the memory price supercycle will be the key variable reshaping the global smartphone market landscape in 2026.
Mobile DRAM and Mobile NAND Flash latest market supply/demand update.
The 1Q26 DRAM price rally is led by Server and PC applications, while a compensatory price increase for smartphone LPDRAM cannot be ruled out for 2Q26. With conservative NAND Flash capacity expansion and market inventory at low levels, conditions remain favorable for continued price increases in 2Q26. Although continuous sharp increases in memory prices have caused a decline in demand for consumer end-products, the overall memory market is expected to remain in shortage, underpinned by strong demand for AI servers. Simultaneously, impacted by significantly rising manufacturing costs, the reshuffling of the smartphone market will accelerate, with high-end brands standing to benefit relatively more.
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