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According to a TrendForce investigations, memory pricing began to decline from 4Q21 due to weakening demand for certain consumer electronics. Coupled with the impact of rising inflation, the Russian-Ukrainian war, and pandemic policies, demand in peak season was weak, resulting in inventory pressure that has extended from the buyer side to manufacturers. In response to the aforementioned situation, Micron announced last week that it would cut production of DRAM and NAND Flash, becoming the first major memory manufacturer to officially reduce its capacity utilization plan. In terms of NAND Flash, the market situation is more severe than that of DRAM. As the average contract price of mainstream capacity wafers has fallen to their cash cost and is approaching the periphery of selling at a loss for various manufacturers, Kioxia also announced that it will reduce NAND Flash capacity utilization by 30% from October on the heels of Micron’s announcement.
According to TrendForce research, due to steady weakening of overall demand for consumer electronics, inventory pressure has increased among downstream distributors and brands. Although there are still sporadic shortages of specific components, the curtain has officially fallen on a two-year wave of shortages in general, and brands have gradually suspended stocking in response to changes in market conditions. However, stable demand for automotive and industrial equipment is key to supporting the ongoing growth of foundry output value. At the same time, since the creation of a marginal amount of new capacity in 2Q22 led to growth in wafer shipments and a price hike for certain wafers, this drove output value among top ten foundries to reach US$33.20 billion in 2Q22. Quarterly growth fell to 3.9% on a weakening consumer market.
According to TrendForce research, NAND Flash is currently oversupplied. Buyers started focusing on destocking and greatly reducing purchases in 2H22 while sellers began offering rock-bottom prices to shore up purchase orders, causing wafer pricing to drop by 30-35% in 3Q22. All types of NAND Flash end products remain weak and factory inventory increased rapidly, resulting in a 15-20% decline in NAND Flash pricing in 4Q22. Most manufacturers’ NAND Flash product sales will also officially cross over into loss territory before the end of this year, which means that certain suppliers under pressure from operating at a loss will likely reduce production as a way to reduce losses.
According to TrendForce research, rising inflation has weakened demand for consumer products, flattening the peak of peak season. In 3Q22, memory bit consumption and shipments continued to exhibit quarterly decline. Due to a significant decline in memory demand, terminal buyers also delayed purchases, leading to further escalation of supplier inventory pressure. At the same time, the strategies of various DRAM suppliers to increase their market share remain unchanged. There have been cases of "consolidated Q3/Q4 price negotiations" or "negotiating quantity before pricing" in the market, which are the reasons leading to a ballooning of declining DRAM prices to 13~18% in 4Q22.
On the evening of September 17, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.4 on the Richter scale occurred in Guanshan Township, Taitung. Yesterday (9/18) afternoon, an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.8 on the Richter scale occurred in Chishang Township, Taitung. Following up on these recent powerful earthquakes, TrendForce’s investigation into their impact on Taiwan's semiconductor and panel industries is as follows: