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TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that the implementation of the U.S. “reciprocal tariffs” on April 9th—followed by a 90-day grace period for most regions—has prompted buyers and suppliers to adjust their strategies in response to policy uncertainty. Avril Wu, Senior Research Vice President at TrendForce, noted that with both sides rushing to complete transactions and shipments within the grace period to mitigate future policy risks, memory market activity is expected to pick up notably in 2Q25.
On April 2nd, the U.S. announced a new round of reciprocal tariffs, followed by a provision allowing exemption for goods with more than 20% “U.S. value”. TrendForce’s latest observations reveal that the lack of macroeconomic improvement since 2024, coupled with the inflationary and recessionary risks posed by these new tariffs, has prompted a downward revision of the 2025 shipment outlook for several end-device markets—including AI servers, servers, smartphones, and notebooks.
TrendForce reports that NAND Flash suppliers began reducing production in the fourth quarter of 2024, and the effects are now starting to show. In anticipation of potential U.S. tariff increases, consumer electronics brands have accelerated production, further driving up demand. Concurrently, inventory restocking is underway across the PC, smartphone, and data center sectors. As a result, NAND Flash prices are expected to stabilize in the second quarter of 2025, with prices for wafers and client SSDs projected to rise.
TrendForce’s latest findings reveal that U.S. tariff hikes prompted most downstream brands to frontload shipments to 1Q25, accelerating inventory reduction across the memory supply chain. Looking ahead to the second quarter, conventional DRAM prices are expected to decline by just 0–5% QoQ, while average DRAM pricing including HBM is forecast to rise by 3–8%, driven by increasing shipments of HBM3e 12hi.
TrendForce’s latest findings on the AI server supply chain have revealed that NVIDIA is expected to launch the GB300 chip ahead of schedule in 2Q25. However, due to its improved computing performance, memory capacity, networking, and power management compared to the GB200, ODM partners will require additional time for testing and customer validation.
