In this release, TrendForce provides its forecast of 10 key trends in the tech industry for 2021.
On October 4, 2020, SMIC made formal announcements assessing the Commerce Department’s notification to SMIC's suppliers that they will be restricted from shipping certain U.S.-originated equipment, components, and raw materials to the Chinese foundry, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. U.S.-based semiconductor equipment suppliers, including Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA, are expected to bear the brunt of the impact from the latest sanction against SMIC, while Netherlands-based ASML will be affected as well, since its machines contain U.S.-originated key components. By contrast, TrendForce’s preliminary analysis indicates that the export restrictions will likely have less of an impact on suppliers of silicon wafers and other raw chemical materials for semiconductors, since these suppliers are mostly Japanese and European companies.
Due to server ODMs’ higher-than-expected inventory of server barebones in 3Q20, additional server orders from the ODMs’ clients came to a screeching halt, therefore resulting in a QoQ decrease in overall server orders for the quarter, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. As ODMs gradually destock their inventories of server barebones in 4Q20, data center operators are expected to step up their server procurement activities as well, albeit to a far lesser extent than 2Q20. However, given the excess inventory of server barebones, one to two quarters are needed to correct this situation, meaning ODMs will be unlikely to restart their procurement of server DRAM and server components until late 2020 or early 2021. In light of the fact that server manufacturers still hold a relatively high inventory of server DRAM, TrendForce is now forecasting a 13-18% QoQ decline in server DRAM prices for 4Q20.
The global spread of the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in WFH and distance education becoming the new tenets of everyday life, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. The resultant booming stay-at-home economy has not only galvanized an explosive double-digit growth for NB (notebook computer) shipment this year, but also benefitted the graphics card market, whose remarkable shipment performance that began in 2Q20 is expected to persist in 2H20.
Spot prices have risen for certain types of memory chips recently, leading to significant market speculations on whether the entire memory industry could see a turnaround in the near future.