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TrendForce reports a pivotal shift in the NAND Flash market for 3Q23, primarily driven by Samsung’s strategic decision to reduce production. Initially, the market was clouded by uncertainty regarding end-user demand and fears of a subdued peak season, prompting buyers to adopt a conservative approach with low inventory and slow procurement.
Looking ahead to Q4, while suppliers are firmly set on price hikes, with DRAM contract prices expected to rise by approximately 13–18%, demand recovery will not be as robust as in previous peak seasons. Overall, while there is demand for stockpiling, procurement for the server sector remains tentative due to high inventory levels, suggesting limited growth in DRAM industry shipments for Q4.
TrendForce’s latest research into the HBM market indicates that NVIDIA plans to diversify its HBM suppliers for more robust and efficient supply chain management. Samsung’s HBM3 (24GB) is anticipated to complete verification with NVIDIA by December this year. The progress of HBM3e, as outlined in the timeline below, shows that Micron provided its 8hi (24GB) samples to NVIDIA by the end of July, SK hynix in mid-August, and Samsung in early October.
Despite strong shipments of NVIDIA’s high-end GPUs—and the rapid introduction of compliant products such as the H20, L20, and L2—Chinese cloud operators are still in the testing phase, making substantial revenue contributions to NVIDIA unlikely in Q4. Gradual shipments increases are expected from the first quarter of 2024.
TrendForce reports that global demand for MLCCs is set to experience a period of slow growth from 2023 to 2024. With limited opportunities for industry growth, the demand for MLCCs in 2023 is estimated to be around 4.193 trillion units, with a modest annual growth rate of about 3%.