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The global NAND Flash industry will see an annual increase of just 6% in its total wafer capacity in 2017, according to analysis by DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. As the pace of the industry-wide transition to 3D-NAND architecture accelerates, supply of 2D-NAND memory will drop sharply, leading to shortages next year. Furthermore, many suppliers are still working on the mass production of 3D-NAND memory. Until the industry in general is able to apply 64-layer 3D-NAND solutions to OEM storage products, the market supply for 3D-NAND memory will remain tight. In the meantime, NAND Flash prices will continue to go up and boost suppliers’ revenues.
China’s National Integrated Circuitry Investment Fund (here referred to as “National IC Fund”) has committed to invest nearly RMB 70 billion into the domestic semiconductor sector since its creation in 2015. Approximately 60% of the committed investment amount has been allocated to building semiconductor wafer fabs, according to TrendForce’s analysis. After finishing providing capital for projects related to semiconductor manufacturing, the National IC Fund is expected to concentrate its investments on the development of the domestic fabless IC design industry.
The global DRAM market has been on a roller coaster ride during 2016. Prices were on a steep slide in the year’s first half due to weak demand. However, the pickup in notebook shipments and the strong sales of Chinese branded smartphones since the start of the third quarter have not only reversed the price downtrend but also caused average selling prices of DRAM to make big jumps. Looking ahead to 2017, DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that DRAM bit supply will expand by less than 20% annually. This growth rate will also be a new historical low for the industry. Assuming that there will be no significant weakening of demand, DRAM supply will generally remain tight next year. Thus, suppliers should continue to reap profits during the entire 2017 on account of rising prices.
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the global shortage of NAND Flash has reached its most severe phase for 2016 in this fourth quarter. Factors that aggravate the shortage include strong smartphone shipments, growing SSD demand and the increase in the average memory density of eMMCs and eMCPs.
Prices in the contract and spot markets for PC DRAM kept climbing between October and November, according to DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. The average contract price of PC DRAM 4GB modules increased by 2.86% monthly to arrive at US$18 in November, while the average spot prices of DDR3 and DDR4 4Gb chips respectively rose 6% and 2% monthly to reach US$2.6 and US$2.53. The general state of the PC DRAM market in November suggests that the upward price trend will continue in the future.
