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TrendForce offers you a complete analysis on DRAM industry supply/demand sufficiency, cost analysis and price forecast.
TrendForce offers you a complete analysis on DRAM industry supply/demand sufficiency, cost analysis and price forecast.
Looking ahead to 2026, major global CSPs are significantly increasing capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, focusing on high-density GPU racks and self-developed ASICs to optimize costs. North American giants are leading the adoption of NVIDIA solutions and proprietary chips, driving the share of AI servers and ASICs. Meanwhile, OEMs like Dell and IEIT are aggressively deploying AI solutions amidst intense competition and geopolitical challenges.
In 2026, the HBM market continues to grow, with SK hynix maintaining its lead and Samsung recovering significantly via HBM3e and HBM4 contributions. Micron also expands aggressively. While HBM3e dominates and HBM4 adoption begins, overall growth momentum slows due to chip upgrade delays and inventory buildup, leading to a converging supply-demand scenario.
Global Server Market – Trends and Outlook for 1Q26
NVIDIA and CSPs drive sustained AI growth through aggressive investment in GPUs, ASICs, and rack-scale infrastructure. Geopolitics reinforce ecosystem trends, benefiting supply chains. Surging AI workloads boost HBM demand and pricing premiums, with Samsung potentially leading the next-gen HBM4 race.
Server DRAM prices are set for a sharp surge in early 2026 driven by critical shortages. Suppliers retain strong leverage, with Korean makers delaying quotes to maximize hikes. Despite capacity reallocation, significant supply gaps persist as the market shifts to higher-speed specifications.
Google integrates TPU v7/v8, Ironwood racks, and Apollo OCS into a unified fabric, shifting the scaling unit from servers to racks. This drives 800G+ optical module penetration above 60% by 2026. Supply chain focus has shifted to laser chips and MEMS capacity. Strategic decisions must now track 800G/1.6T transceiver deployments, alongside GPU/TPU shipments, to accurately gauge the AI compute cycle.
Persistent DRAM supply shortages have empowered suppliers, driving sharp upward revisions in contract prices. High-margin Server DRAM now leads profitability, prompting capacity shifts. Consequently, pricing trends remain strong with limited negotiation room for buyers.
Driven by the AI Agent boom and Nvidia’s new DPU, Enterprise SSD demand has exploded. With suppliers prioritizing DRAM, severe shortages have triggered panic buying and record-breaking price hikes. As high-capacity SSDs become critical for AI, supply constraints and rising costs are expected to persist.
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