HBM4 Validation Expected in 2Q26; Three Major Suppliers Poised to Shape NVIDIA Supply Landscape, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest analysis of the HBM industry reveals that as the ongoing expansion of AI infrastructure continues to fuel GPU demand, NVIDIA’s upcoming Rubin platform is expected to become a major catalyst for HBM4 adoption once mass production begins. The three leading memory suppliers—Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron—are now in the final stages of HBM4 validation, with completion anticipated by 2Q26.

Samsung, supported by its strong product stability, is projected to secure certification first. SK hynix and Micron are expected to follow shortly thereafter, forming a three-supplier ecosystem for NVIDIA’s HBM4.

TrendForce notes that the rapid expansion of inference AI use cases—particularly among North American CSPs racing to capture early AI agent opportunities—has significantly strengthened demand momentum since late 2025. NVIDIA remains cautiously optimistic about the commercial outlook for its next-generation Rubin platform as CSPs accelerate the deployment of AI servers, reinforcing positive expectations for HBM4 bit demand growth.

On the supply side, however, the broader memory shortage has intensified. Prices for conventional DRAM have surged sharply since 4Q25, narrowing HBM’s historical advantage in profitability. Memory vendors are therefore recalibrating capacity allocation between HBM and conventional DRAM to balance overall revenue growth and customer commitments. Under such conditions, NVIDIA’s reliance on a single supplier could hinder the ramp-up of the Rubin platform.

For suppliers, sustained growth in GPU demand—coupled with HBM’s complex design and validation uncertainties—requires memory makers to continuously advance product roadmaps across generations to avoid missing market opportunities. An optimistic outlook on HBM4 demand, the inability of any single supplier to fully satisfy Rubin requirements, and the strategic need for vendors to maintain multi-generation market share mean TrendForce expects NVIDIA to incorporate all three major suppliers into its HBM4 supply chain.

Samsung currently leads in terms of validation progress and is expected to begin phased mass production following completion in 2Q26. SK hynix continues to advance steadily and is likely to retain a competitive edge in bit allocation, supported by its longstanding HBM partnership with NVIDIA. Micron, while progressing at a relatively slower pace, is also expected to complete validation by 2Q26.

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