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Driven by Server DDR5 shortages and rising AI demand, DDR5 profitability now rivals HBM. With suppliers regaining pricing power and buyers increasing orders, the forecasted 2026 HBM3e price decline has significantly narrowed.
North American CSPs' expanded investment in AI and general servers has confirmed a DRAM industry upcycle. With supplier inventory bottoming out and buyers actively restocking, prices and revenue are surging. As AMD and Arm gain share and CSPs increase CAPEX, strong growth in server and memory demand is expected to continue.
Microsoft and Meta are accelerating AI infrastructure. Microsoft balances capacity constraints via leasing, trading margins for growth. Meanwhile, Meta shifts to an aggressive strategy, leveraging rapid deployment and open-source models to secure future dominance.
The global server market is expanding, driven by robust AI infrastructure investments from CSPs and a general server replacement cycle. Major tech giants like Alibaba, Oracle, and Google are increasing capex and deploying next-gen GPU platforms to meet soaring AI computing demands.
North American CSPs' expanded investment in AI and general servers has confirmed a DRAM industry upcycle. With supplier inventory bottoming out and buyers actively restocking, prices and revenue are surging. As AMD and Arm gain share and CSPs increase CAPEX, strong growth in server and memory demand is expected to continue.
Memory price surge continues into 1Q26, pushing BOM cost to a critical point. Brands freeze price cuts and downsize specifications, facing severe sales challenges.
The US may permit NVIDIA H200 exports to China to hinder full localization. As a strategic compromise, the H200 aims to fill the void left by H20. While facing competition from domestic policies, it remains attractive to Chinese tech giants, prompting supply chain adjustments.
Google and Amazon leverage custom chips for superior AI cost-efficiency. Google pursues aggressive infrastructure expansion to meet demand, while Amazon uses retail cash flow to sustain high capital intensity, solidifying data center dominance.
US data centers drive DDR5 and HBM demand. Rising DDR5 prices boost profitability. Future growth relies on HBM4 and standard DRAM synergy. Revenue mix will shift as standard memory prices recover against HBM dynamics.
CSP self-developed chips and NVIDIA's platforms are driving Arm adoption, eroding x86 dominance in server markets.
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