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"TrendForce reports that as memory products evolve, DDR4 modules are nearing end-of-life (EOL), leading to rising prices. Major suppliers like Micron, Samsung, and SK hynix have announced EOL plans for DDR4 with final shipments in early 2026. Some PC OEMs have stockpiled DDR4, driving up average selling prices. Robust demand for enterprise SSDs is supporting memory prices in Q3. DDR4 contract prices have already increased by over 20% in Q2 and may rise another 10% in Q3. Continued demand could keep DDR4 prices up in the second half of the year, but tariff pauses and other factors might mitigate this rise.
"According to TrendForce, the NAND Flash market has maintained equilibrium in early 2025 due to conservative capacity strategies by suppliers. However, sudden US tariffs disrupted this balance, leading some PC OEMs to stockpile, but overall shipment momentum was weak. The retail market's declining demand and uncertain outlook for enterprise and consumer applications have led suppliers to remain cautious on capacity expansion. Entering Q3 2025, the enterprise SSD market is expected to experience a substantial demand increase, driven primarily by North American cloud service providers' investments in AI. The rising demand is not only from Chinese AI deployments but also expanding in North America, supporting the global growth of enterprise SSD and leading to higher NAND Flash prices in 2025.
"As demand for AI servers rises, the adoption of HBM4 memory is set to increase costs, with estimated price premiums exceeding 30%. HBM4 features significant changes, including doubling IO channels to 2048 and using logic chip architecture, leading to higher data transfer rates and reduced latency. However, these advancements also raise manufacturing costs, with wafer costs reaching $7000-8000, making it 3-4 times more expensive than traditional DRAM. In 2026, total HBM shipments are forecasted to exceed 30 billion Gb, with SK hynix expected to maintain over 50% market share. Samsung and Micron need to improve yield rates and production capacity to compete in the HBM4 market.
"TSMC's North America Technology Symposium unveiled a roadmap for advanced packaging solutions, showcasing the 3DFabric® platform, which includes wafer level 3D stacking and advanced packaging technologies. These innovations address bottlenecks in traditional single-chip designs, driven by HPC and AI's rising demand for computing power. Notably, the SoW technology, expected by 2027, aims to boost AI computing power by 40 times. While challenges such as technology maturity, supply chain stability, and high R&D costs exist, TSMC's advanced packaging roadmap and comprehensive strategy underline its commitment to advancing semiconductor technology in the post-Moore's Law era..
"According to the latest supply chain survey from TrendForce, new US export regulations starting in April 2025 will require licenses for exporting semiconductor chips like NVIDIA H20 and AMD MI308 to China. This requirement will significantly impact NVIDIA's ability to sell their H20 and similar chips to China’s AI market, driving the market towards domestic alternatives and a clearer division between the AI server supply chains in China and the US.
In response to these restrictions, Chinese CSPs and OEMs are expected to increasingly rely on domestic suppliers for AI accelerators. Major Chinese CSPs such as Baidu, ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent are anticipated to boost their investments in developing in-house AI chips. As a result of the new export controls, the share of externally purchased AI chips (e.g., from NVIDIA and AMD) in China’s AI server market is projected to drop from 63% in 2024 to 41.5% in 2025.
Huawei and Cambricon lead the domestic AI chip sector and are expected to drive the adoption of local chips in 2025. Additionally, Chinese CSPs like Alibaba and Baidu are actively developing their ASICs to replace NVIDIA GPUs. Overall, geopolitical risks are expected to expedite China's autonomy in the AI supply chain.
"TrendForce's 2024 OSAT report highlights packaging's rising importance due to Moore's Law limits and chip complexity. Asian firms dominate, with Taiwan maintaining leadership via technology and capacity advantages. China OSATs are rapidly rising, fueled by policy support and domestic demand, showing significant growth and challenging the established order. US players hold strategic value. Advanced packaging (AI-driven) and geopolitics are key influencing factors. The market shows stable mature leaders coexisting with strongly emerging regional forces, particularly from China, setting the stage for the next phase of industry competition.
Since Donald Trump's first election as President of the United States, the US has consistently and systematically employed various policy tools to strictly limit China’s access to advanced semiconductor products and related manufacturing technologies. This has created significant obstacles to China's industrial upgrading and its ability to compete in high-end markets. By 2025, the accumulated impact of multiple tariffs has brought this trade competition to a new peak. In response to external pressures, China has adopted a series of policy measures to accelerate its self-reliance process and maintain certain export resilience. This report will examine the complex interactions between the US and Chinese semiconductor industries under continuous US policy pressure, China's coping strategies, and explore the implications of this dynamic for the future of bilateral economic and trade relations.
TrendForce reports explosive AI computing demand drives CSPs to accelerate in-house ASIC development for cost control and competitiveness. Global AI server shipments are projected ~25% YoY growth in 2025. US CSPs are taking the lead in AI ASIC development: Google (TPU leader), AWS (fastest growth at 104% YoY), Meta (MTIA), and Microsoft (Maia) are actively advancing next-gen chips. Concurrently, US restrictions have prompted major local Chinese CSPs (e.g. BBAT) to accelerate their R&D on in-house AI ASICs in order to lower dependency on US chips. In-house developed ASICs are now a key CSP strategy focus.
"TrendForce reports the US now requires export licenses for AI chips like NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 to China, effective immediately. This forces NVIDIA and AMD to recognize potential multi-billion dollar losses. Aimed at preventing supercomputer use, licenses might still be granted for general AI applications. H20 China shipments could fall 20-30% in 2025, impacting the supply chain and risking downward revision for HBM demand (H20/MI308 originally ~5%). The restriction accelerates China's move to domestic AI solutions (e.g., Huawei Ascend), deepening US-China supply chain divergence.
Geopolitical instability has fostered the rising consciousness of sovereign AI in 2025, thus prompting the US, Europe, China, and Japan to successively revitalize their domestic chip industries. These efforts will focus on the development and production of autonomous chips and advanced packaging technologies. This report probes into the technical challenges and opportunities on restructuring the industry chain, as well as the profound global impact on the semiconductor landscape under this trend, whilst analyzing the key strategic positions in the new AI chip competition.
