Restrictions on Export of AI Chips from NVIDIA and AMD to China Will Weaken Sales Momentum and Prompt Supply Chain to Assess Extent of Impact

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2025-04-17

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TrendForce reports the US now requires export licenses for AI chips like NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 to China, effective immediately. This forces NVIDIA and AMD to recognize potential multi-billion dollar losses. Aimed at preventing supercomputer use, licenses might still be granted for general AI applications. H20 China shipments could fall 20-30% in 2025, impacting the supply chain and risking downward revision for HBM demand (H20/MI308 originally ~5%). The restriction accelerates China's move to domestic AI solutions (e.g., Huawei Ascend), deepening US-China supply chain divergence.

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