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"TrendForce's 2024 OSAT report highlights packaging's rising importance due to Moore's Law limits and chip complexity. Asian firms dominate, with Taiwan maintaining leadership via technology and capacity advantages. China OSATs are rapidly rising, fueled by policy support and domestic demand, showing significant growth and challenging the established order. US players hold strategic value. Advanced packaging (AI-driven) and geopolitics are key influencing factors. The market shows stable mature leaders coexisting with strongly emerging regional forces, particularly from China, setting the stage for the next phase of industry competition.
Since Donald Trump's first election as President of the United States, the US has consistently and systematically employed various policy tools to strictly limit China’s access to advanced semiconductor products and related manufacturing technologies. This has created significant obstacles to China's industrial upgrading and its ability to compete in high-end markets. By 2025, the accumulated impact of multiple tariffs has brought this trade competition to a new peak. In response to external pressures, China has adopted a series of policy measures to accelerate its self-reliance process and maintain certain export resilience. This report will examine the complex interactions between the US and Chinese semiconductor industries under continuous US policy pressure, China's coping strategies, and explore the implications of this dynamic for the future of bilateral economic and trade relations.
TrendForce reports explosive AI computing demand drives CSPs to accelerate in-house ASIC development for cost control and competitiveness. Global AI server shipments are projected ~25% YoY growth in 2025. US CSPs are taking the lead in AI ASIC development: Google (TPU leader), AWS (fastest growth at 104% YoY), Meta (MTIA), and Microsoft (Maia) are actively advancing next-gen chips. Concurrently, US restrictions have prompted major local Chinese CSPs (e.g. BBAT) to accelerate their R&D on in-house AI ASICs in order to lower dependency on US chips. In-house developed ASICs are now a key CSP strategy focus.
"TrendForce reports the US now requires export licenses for AI chips like NVIDIA's H20 and AMD's MI308 to China, effective immediately. This forces NVIDIA and AMD to recognize potential multi-billion dollar losses. Aimed at preventing supercomputer use, licenses might still be granted for general AI applications. H20 China shipments could fall 20-30% in 2025, impacting the supply chain and risking downward revision for HBM demand (H20/MI308 originally ~5%). The restriction accelerates China's move to domestic AI solutions (e.g., Huawei Ascend), deepening US-China supply chain divergence.
Geopolitical instability has fostered the rising consciousness of sovereign AI in 2025, thus prompting the US, Europe, China, and Japan to successively revitalize their domestic chip industries. These efforts will focus on the development and production of autonomous chips and advanced packaging technologies. This report probes into the technical challenges and opportunities on restructuring the industry chain, as well as the profound global impact on the semiconductor landscape under this trend, whilst analyzing the key strategic positions in the new AI chip competition.
"TrendForce reports US tariff policy shifts are impacting the memory market. A 90-day grace period announced in April spurred a Q2 surge in DRAM and NAND Flash orders as buyers and sellers rushed transactions to mitigate future uncertainty. This is expected to drive larger-than-anticipated Q2 contract price hikes. However, this demand pull-forward may weaken market momentum and subsequent price increases in H2 2025. The ultimate direction of US tariff policies remains the key variable for the H2 memory market supply, demand, and pricing.
"TrendForce reports that the introduction of new US tariffs, particularly the 20% ""fentanyl tariff"" on China-made goods, has significantly disrupted the smartphone industry, pushing brands to accelerate supply chain diversification away from China. Apple, which holds a dominant market share in the US and still sources a large portion of its US-bound phones from China, is expected to face the greatest challenges, despite its ongoing efforts to expand production in India.
In contrast, Samsung is better positioned during the 90-day grace period, benefiting from its pre-existing diversified production network in Vietnam and India. However, Lenovo (Motorola), with its heavy reliance on China, faces potential supply bottlenecks and heightened vulnerabilities.
While China remains the core global production hub—accounting for the majority of smartphone manufacturing—the shift toward diversification has become unavoidable. Nevertheless, this transition is not without its challenges, as it introduces higher costs and increased management complexity to global supply chains.
TrendForce reports Mexico remains a key location for server and AI production, particularly for US-bound orders, leveraging USMCA exemptions despite US tariff volatility. The new policy favors USMCA-compliant Mexican exports but restricts China-sourced components. ODMs adopt a ""division of labor"" strategy: Mexico for system assembly, Southeast Asia for modules. While direct tariff impact on AI servers appears manageable (due to US value clause & USMCA), policy uncertainty and economic risks could lead to conservative customer procurement. Mexico's role as a core server supply chain hub is strengthened short-term, but ongoing policy monitoring is crucial.
"TrendForce reports new US ""reciprocal tariffs"" suppress investment and consumer demand, prompting a downward revision of the 2025 global end-product outlook. While semiconductors are currently excluded, ambiguity surrounding the ""US value"" exemption clause increases supply chain costs and recession risks. This uncertainty is expected to weaken annual shipment momentum for AI systems, servers, smartphones, and notebooks. TrendForce presents two scenarios: a base case with slowed growth across product lines, and a worst case involving potential trade war escalation leading to severe recession and demand contraction.
As the global market expands its investment in AI computing and the development of related applications, humanoid robots are expected to become the largest AI application by market size. The introduction of torque and inertia sensing technology by manufacturers is critical for humanoid robots to walk flexibly and mimic human behavior in various scenarios. These two sensor systems need to work perfectly in sync, driving robots from simple programmed actions towards more natural human behavior. Humanoid robots need to operate in complex and variable environments and possess reaction speeds similar to humans. Their sensing systems must accurately perceive and respond to their surroundings. Currently, several robot manufacturers are specializing in improving their walking performance.
