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Driven by robust demand for AI servers and high-performance computing, the memory market has entered a super-cycle of price hikes starting from 2H25. Escalating memory costs are forcing brands to raise end-device prices and scale back low-end models to cope with cost pressures. Against this backdrop, the year-on-year decline in global smartphone production for 2026 could widen to approximately 15%, or potentially even higher, under a pessimistic scenario. However, given the absence of signals indicating a halt in price increases and persistent supply tightness, most brands are choosing to maintain their established procurement volumes with suppliers to secure resource allocations. It is noteworthy that this wave of memory price increases is driving up the retail prices of various electronic devices, further evolving into a broader risk of consumer electronics inflation.
AI infrastructure upgrades are driving structural memory demand, making DRAM and NAND Flash critical resources. Heavy CSP investment is pushing prices and revenue to record highs. With persistent shortages giving suppliers pricing power, the market is poised for sustained long-term growth.
As global majors exit the MLC market for advanced processes, a supply cliff has driven prices up. However, persistent demand from high-reliability sectors has transformed MLC into a high-margin niche. Macronix is strategically cutting NOR Flash output to boost MLC supply, filling the gap and solidifying its key supplier role.
CSP AI investment fuels robust server growth.
The US may permit NVIDIA H200 exports to China to hinder full localization. As a strategic compromise, the H200 aims to fill the void left by H20. While facing competition from domestic policies, it remains attractive to Chinese tech giants, prompting supply chain adjustments.
The global satellite market is expected to reach $392 billion in 2026. Competition will intensify as Starlink continues expanding satellite broadband and direct-to-cell (D2C) services into emerging markets, prompting MEO/HEO/GEO satellite operators to accelerate multi-orbit deployment strategies to counter Starlink’s growing influence.
Meanwhile, early-stage 6G deployment is underway. As global satellite service markets rapidly scale, Taiwanese manufacturers are shifting production bases to Southeast Asia while increasing shipments of key satellite components.
TrendForce shows AI-driven DRAM demand surge, creating supply tension. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron plan to expand DRAM production through 2026.
Server DRAM prices are projected to surge due driven by tight supply and robust cloud service provider demand. To secure supply, clients are aggressively negotiating long-term agreements, incentivizing manufacturers to expand capacity. Manufacturers are shifting production focus to high-margin DDR5. Market anticipates persistent undersupply, with substantial new capacity taking years to come online, while process upgrades accelerate short-term. PC DRAM also rises, but less significantly.
AI's evolving demands shift storage from HDDs (high latency) to SSDs (speed, low latency). SSDs offer superior performance and TCO benefits, accelerating their adoption in AI infrastructure.
AI drives surging memory demand, prompting capex revisions. However, limited cleanroom space and a shift to advanced tech over raw capacity will constrain future bit output growth. Equipment vendors are optimistic, yet memory tech hurdles rise.
