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Since 2H25, accelerated AI infrastructure buildouts by CSPs have surged HBM demand and crowded out conventional DRAM capacity, pushing the broader DRAM market into shortage. Constrained by annual pricing mechanisms, HBM per-wafer output value and margins fell below DDR5 RDIMM in 1Q26. As 2027 HBM4 supply negotiations launch in 2Q26, TrendForce expects suppliers to push through substantial contract price hikes, reflecting acute supply-demand imbalance and rising next-generation manufacturing costs.
As technical iteration narrows the capability gap between models, Chinese open-source models are expanding their global presence by compensating weaker hardware with software optimization and scale. Under compute constraints, Chinese models can still maintain solid performance and a strong price–performance advantage, based on a fundamental reshaping of “model design and system engineering.” The launch of DeepSeek‑V4, the first Chinese model to achieve domestic substitution in the inference stage, has become a flagship example, and is driving China’s AI industry to further deepen an integrated “AI hardware–software co‑design” development path.
On April 23, 2026, TSMC unveiled at the 2026 North America Technology Symposium its Compact Universal Photonic Engine (COUPE) platform built on Co-Packaged Optics (CPO) technology, with mass production targeted for the second half of 2026. However, CPO testing is the critical technology that must be mastered before COUPE can move into a mass production phase. As a result, not only international giants such as FormFactor, ficonTEC, and Keysight, but also Taiwanese players including MPI, Chroma ATE, Hon Prec, Enlitech, and MSS have all rolled out corresponding solutions, hoping to capture share in this new incremental market.
This report mainly provides an in-depth analysis of: (1) demand drivers for CPO test equipment; (2) technical bottlenecks and testing challenges of CPO; (3) CPO test insertion levels; and (4) Taiwan-based CPO test equipment suppliers. The goal is to map out the growth drivers and technology development of CPO testing, and to take stock of the current state of Taiwan's CPO test equipment supply chain.
As U.S. export controls extend from chips to AI infrastructure, the traditional optical interconnect industry is undergoing supply chain restructuring. While optical modules are not subject to blanket bans, they are now governed by system‑level controls. By leveraging its semiconductor ecosystem and investing in SiPh, CPO, advanced packaging and testing capabilities, Taiwan can capture North American supply‑chain de‑risking demand and reposition itself as a strategic AI partner.
The semiconductor industry is undergoing a structural shift in 2026, with competition moving beyond process node scaling toward system-level architecture. On the technology front, 2nm gate-all-around (GAA) structures offer ultra-low leakage through full gate control, addressing key challenges in edge AI. Meanwhile, advanced packaging technologies such as CoWoS have evolved into a strategic focal point for defining overall system performance.
On the application front, the need for inference is driving the rapid growth of ASICs, as companies like Amazon Web Services, Google, Meta, and Alibaba develop their own architectures and co-optimized software and hardware to regain control over compute resources. At the same time, AI-powered EDA tools are removing productivity hurdles and promoting design democratization, opening new avenues for IC innovation and encouraging wider ASIC adoption.
Intensifying global geopolitical conflicts are driving up defense spending, and warfare is pivoting toward asymmetric and information warfare, making low-cost unmanned vehicles (UAVs) crucial. China is deepening military-civilian integration to break through technology controls, while Taiwan is fully developing localized UAV and AI defense supply chains to strengthen resilience.
In AI inference, MoE architectures and long-context processing have sharply increased memory-capacity requirements for model weights and KV cache, shifting the bottleneck from insufficient compute to limited memory capacity. As warm data grows rapidly, this will drive a restructuring of the storage hierarchy, where HBM will handle hot data, while HBF will carry warm data to optimize cost–performance. However, commercialization of HBF still needs to overcome challenges in advanced packaging processes and the inherent characteristics of NAND flash.
With the generative AI market expanding at a CAGR of over 35%, data throughput for a single large language model (LLM) training task has reached the exabyte (EB) level. As transmission speeds evolve toward 1.6Tbps, traditional copper cables are hitting a “physical wall,” limiting transmission distances to under one meter and creating a massive energy drain. Leveraging cross-domain technologies like TSMC’s Compact Universal Photonic Engine (COUPE) advanced packaging and Micro LED mass transfer, Taiwan’s supply chain has built a comprehensive ecosystem—spanning wafer foundries and ASIC design to photoelectric testing. Consequently, Taiwan has become an indispensable strategic hub in the global AI computing infrastructure.
For the current year of 2026, TSMC plans to establish a trial production line CoPoS through its subsidiary, VisEra, with trial production scheduled for 2027. Consequently, this year will be a critical window for product validation and deliveries for related equipment and material providers. To address the warpage issues inherent in large-area panel-level packaging (PLP), specialty chemical suppliers such as AMC, WaferChem, and Everlight Chemical showcased corresponding solutions at Touch Taiwan 2026, drawing significant market attention.
Accordingly, this report provides an in-depth analysis of: (1) the background of the material technology PLP and its market outlook; (2) the causes of warpage and potential solutions; and (3) warpage-suppressing materials and key suppliers. The objective is to clarify the demand drivers for PLP, the mechanisms behind panel warpage, viable countermeasures, and the emerging business opportunities for Taiwan-based companies.
In 2026, power semiconductors have evolved from conventional components into strategic enablers reshaping the global energy landscape. SiC and GaN technologies are entering a phase of large-scale deployment across global infrastructure as AI data centers confront the “power wall” bottleneck and EVs accelerate the adoption of 800V high-voltage architectures.
