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The server market is experiencing robust growth, exceeding prior forecasts, fueled by surging AI-driven demand from North American and Chinese CSPs. This has led to increased server orders, particularly for AI servers and high-capacity DRAM modules. Geopolitical factors are also influencing procurement strategies. TrendForce projects a stabilization of server DRAM (DDR5) prices in Q2 2025, with potential price increases in Q3, driven by strong demand and limited supply, partly due to HBM production. Suppliers like SK hynix, Samsung, and Micron are adjusting production and pricing strategies accordingly. The overall outlook is positive, with server DRAM leading a potential broader DRAM market recovery. Key factors to watch include consumer demand recovery and HBM market dynamics.
TrendForce reports that server DRAM revenue grew by 8.0% QoQ and 84.4% YoY in 4Q24, driven by continued growth in DDR5 shipments and prices. While overall bit shipments saw a slight increase, individual supplier performance varied. Micron saw significant revenue growth due to aggressive shipments of DDR5 and HBM products. Looking ahead to 2025, AI server demand will continue to grow, but CSPs' slower transition to advanced processes may limit the supply of certain products.
TrendForce reports that global smartphone production grew by 9.2% QoQ in 4Q24, driven by Chinese local government subsidies and Apple's new device launches. Apple took the top spot with new model production, while Samsung declined due to intensified competition. For the full year 2024, global smartphone production increased by 4.9% YoY. Looking ahead to 2025, overall production is expected to maintain slight growth, despite uncertainties from a sluggish economy and political variables.
1. Foundry Market Overview
2. Impact of Capacity Supply and Geopolitical Factors
3. AI-Driven Growth in the Foundry Industry
4. TRI’s View
TrendForce reports that despite a 9.2% QoQ increase in global smartphone production in 4Q24, mobile DRAM demand declined due to conservative stocking strategies by Android brands and the end of peak stocking for new Apple devices. This resulted in shipment and revenue declines for suppliers. Mobile DRAM revenue is expected to continue declining in 1Q25 due to weak demand and falling prices.
TrendForce indicates that TSMC is expanding its US investment to US$165 billion, establishing six advanced process fabs, two advanced packaging plants, and an R&D center in Arizona. Geopolitical tensions have accelerated supply chain fragmentation, with countries actively building local capacity. The US share of global advanced foundry capacity is projected to rise to 22% by 2030, but this will also increase cost pressures, potentially leading to higher end-product prices.
TrendForce reports that the total revenue of the global top 10 foundries climbed 9.9% QoQ to a new record in 4Q24, driven by strong wafer shipments from advanced nodes (3nm and 5/4nm). TSMC maintained its leadership position with significant revenue growth from its 3nm node. Looking ahead to 2025, AI servers and edge AI will continue to be the key growth drivers, and the global top 10 foundries are expected to see further revenue gains.
TrendForce indicates that CSPs continue to actively invest in in-house AI ASICs, and the emergence of DeepSeek will further catalyze this trend. Although NVIDIA GPUs remain the mainstream for AI servers, both North American and Chinese CSPs are accelerating in-house ASIC development to improve performance, reduce costs, and lessen reliance on external suppliers. ASIC AI servers are projected to reach a 29% market share by 2028, with a market value of US$41 billion.
TrendForce reports that NVIDIA's data center business revenue exceeded 90% of its total revenue for the first time in FY4Q25, driven by the quarterly ramp-up of the Blackwell platform. Strong demand for high-end GPUs (including Hopper and Blackwell series) from hyperscale CSPs and enterprises fueled NVIDIA's overall revenue growth. The rise of DeepSeek will promote the development of edge AI inference servers and expand the scope of AI applications.
TrendForce has revised up its server shipment forecast for 2025 to nearly 7% YoY growth, driven by CSPs' expansion of cloud data centers and AI demand. North American CSPs are increasing orders for general-purpose servers, while Chinese CSPs are actively procuring AI servers. As a result, server ODM's motherboard SMT line utilization rates have risen significantly. The development of technologies like DeepSeek will further drive the growth of the AI server market.
