Popular Keywords
- About Us
-
Research Report
Research Directory
Semiconductors
LED
Consumer Electronics
Emerging Technologies
- Selected Topics
- Membership
- Price Trends
- Press Center
- News
- Events
- AI Agent
TrendForce indicates that the updated US export controls announced on January 15th, 2025, will impact CXMT's process technology, wafer input, yield rates, and market deployment. US equipment suppliers have begun withdrawing personnel from CXMT's fabs since mid-February, affecting its 2025-2026 development plans. The new regulations cover all of CXMT's process nodes, impacting not only its G4 and G4B processes but also the already mass-produced G3 process. This will lead to a downward revision of CXMT's bit output and affect its position in the server DRAM and mobile DRAM markets. In the long term, CXMT's development in the LPDDR5X and DDR5 markets will be hindered.
TrendForce forecasts that despite continued oversupply in 1Q25, the NAND Flash market will see significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics in 2H25, leading to a price rebound. This is driven by suppliers' proactive production cuts, growing AI-related demand, and faster inventory depletion. Chinese government subsidies, AI server demand, and AI PC/smartphone demand spurred by DeepSeek will contribute to the NAND Flash market recovery.
DeepSeek’s rapid rise not only highlights the role of algorithm optimization in balancing model performance and hardware efficiency but also signals a shift in AI development toward inference-driven applications. AI agents are expected to become the primary form of such applications, gradually evolving into systematic Agentic AI, enabling greater automation and goal-oriented task execution.
TrendForce forecasts uncertain growth for AI server shipments in 2025, influenced by US export controls, the rise of DeepSeek, and GB rack preparation progress. The base case projects 28% growth; the worse case, 20-25%; and the bullish case, nearly 35%. While DeepSeek may reduce demand for high-end AI training servers, it will drive edge AI inference server development and encourage CSP investment in custom ASICs, benefiting long-term AI market growth. AI inference is expected to gradually approach a 50% market share.
TrendForce indicates that DeepSeek and other Chinese AI companies are challenging the hardware-centric AI development model by focusing on operational efficiency, potentially prompting CSPs to reassess their AI infrastructure investments. While CSP capital expenditures will remain high in 2025, investments in in-house ASICs will increase to reduce costs and reliance on NVIDIA GPUs. US export controls will further accelerate the development of indigenous chips and algorithms in China's AI sector. In the long term, DeepSeek's emergence may lead to a downward revision in AI GPU demand and shift AI development towards efficiency-focused strategies.
TrendForce forecasts a continued slump in the NAND Flash market in 2025, driven by weak demand and oversupply, leading to price declines. To stabilize the market, Micron has initiated production cuts, with other suppliers expected to follow. Suppliers will reduce capacity utilization and delay process upgrades. While these cuts may stabilize prices short-term, long-term market consolidation will accelerate. Suppliers need to focus on innovation and explore new markets, while competition from Chinese suppliers will intensify.
1. Wi-Fi 7: Development and Market Outlook
2. Wi-Fi 7: Applications
3. Wi-Fi 7: Key Technical Features
4. Wi-Fi 7: Chips and Market Outlook
5. Major Wi-Fi IC Design Houses’ Deployment
6. TRI’s View
TrendForce indicates that the US export control updates on January 16th extend KYC review standards to packaging technologies and expand controls to logic ICs at 16/14nm and below, 3D NAND with 128+ layers, and specific DRAM specifications. New measures require stricter due diligence from foundries and OSATs and establish ""Approved IC Designers"" and ""Approved Manufacturing and OSAT Companies"" lists. While non-AI chip production may continue, these measures will increase difficulties for Chinese customers and could impact TSMC's revenue by 1-3%.
TrendForce indicates that NVIDIA will increase shipments of Blackwell GPUs featuring CoWoS-L in 2025, while US trade restrictions may reduce demand for CoWoS-S. NVIDIA's adjusted CoWoS order allocation strategy will shift 60% of demand from CoWoS-S to CoWoS-L, despite tight CoWoS-L capacity. Potential delays in GB Rack shipments and US export controls on AI chips could lead to NVIDIA revising its CoWoS demand downward.
TrendForce indicates that foundry capacity utilization in 1Q25 is exceeding expectations due to geopolitical risks and Chinese subsidies. Despite weak end-market demand for consumer electronics, the supply chain is stockpiling to mitigate potential tariffs and capitalize on Chinese subsidies, leading to increased utilization rates for mature nodes at Tier-2 foundries. This early stockpiling, however, may reduce future demand, potentially slowing capacity utilization growth in 2H25.
