TrendForce shows AI-driven DRAM demand surge, creating supply tension. Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron plan to expand DRAM production through 2026.

Key Highlights

• AI-Driven Demand Growth: Increasing AI applications have spurred Server's demand for DRAM, including DDR5 and HBM.
• Capacity Shortfall: High demand has led to tight DRAM wafer production capacity, with manufacturers transitioning NAND Flash facilities to DRAM.
• Samsung's Expansion Plan: Samsung is reducing NAND Flash production to expand DRAM outputs, gradually enhancing P4L fabs' capacity.
• SK hynix Strategy Adjustment: SK hynix is converting Cheongju fab space to HBM capacity and building a new M15X fab to boost DRAM production.
• Micron’s Strategy and Challenges: Facing limited cleanroom space, Micron plans to expand capacity in the US and increase DRAM output from Taiwan’s Taichung fab.
• Market Forecast: Though DRAM output is set to rise, demand growth ensures a supply-demand imbalance, with DRAM supply expected to fall short in 2026.

Table of Contents

1. Three Major DRAM Suppliers Are Accelerating Process Upgrades to Increase Output, but DRAM Supply Shortage Will Persist in 2026 Due to Soaring Growth of CSPs’ Procurement Demand
2. Samsung Adjusts Production Capacity Distribution with a Focus on DRAM in Pyeongtaek, Engaging New Fab Construction and Production Line Conversion Simultaneously
   • Samsung’s DRAM and NAND Flash Wafer Starts
3. M15X to Become Main Driver for New Wafer Starts as Demand for HBM Triggers Capacity Expansions
   • SK hynix’s DRAM and NAND Flash Wafer Starts
4. Micron Awaits Contributions from New US Fab for Momentum of Expansions Due to Restricted Space of Clean Rooms
   • Micron’s DRAM Wafer Starts
   • Capacity Plans for New Fabs among the Three Major Suppliers
   • Per-Wafer ASPs of HBM and DDR5
   • Supply and Demand Bits and S/D of DRAM

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