AI drives surging memory demand, prompting capex revisions. However, limited cleanroom space and a shift to advanced tech over raw capacity will constrain future bit output growth. Equipment vendors are optimistic, yet memory tech hurdles rise.

Key Highlights

• Strong AI demand is leading to upward revisions in memory capital expenditure, despite initial conservative outlooks.
• DRAM investments prioritize advanced processes and HBM capacity expansion, though cleanroom space limitations constrain bit output growth.
• NAND Flash capex shifts towards hybrid bonding and higher layer counts, with varying strategies among suppliers.
• NAND Flash demand, fueled by AI storage and cloud provider shifts, represents a structural shortage; however, manufacturers remain cautious about immediate expansion.
• Memory equipment suppliers are optimistic about AI-driven demand, highlighting the increasing complexity and high technical hurdles in advanced memory.
• Overall industry investment is transitioning from traditional bit capacity expansion to process upgrades and high-value products, resulting in limited future bit growth.

Table of Contents

1. Memory Industry Still Maintains Conservative Capex Outlook for 2026 as AI Drives Demand Surge; There Is Potential for Upward Revisions
   • Major DRAM and NAND Flash Suppliers’ Respective Capex Figures
2. Overview of DRAM Capex: Focus Will Be on Migrations to 1C and 1-Gamma Processes and HBM-Related Capacity Expansions
   • DRAM Industry’s Annual Capex and Supply Bit Growth
   • DRAM Suppliers’ Fab Expansion Plans
3. Capex on NAND Flash – Overall Level Remains Conservative with Priority Set for Higher Layers and QLC
   • NAND Flash Industry Capex and Supply Bit Growth
4. Equipment Providers Optimistic on AI-Driven Demand; Technical Threshold of Memory to Elevate Continuously in the Future
5. DRAM and NAND Flash Restricted in Bit Growth for 2026 as Investment Shifts to Mostly Advanced Technologies

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