PC DRAM quarterly contract prices continue to rise, though gains have narrowed, leaving buyers and sellers locked in a stalemate. Crowded out by server demand, original manufacturers' future supply is expected to shrink significantly. On the demand side, rising end-market retail prices are suppressing consumer spending, leading to a sharp drop in notebook shipments. While buyers are highly price-sensitive and actively resisting steep price hikes, manufacturers retain bargaining power, with rigid baseline demand continuing to support resilient prices.

Key Highlights

• Price Trends & Negotiation Stalemate: Quarterly contract prices continue to rise, though price growth has slowed. Opposing price stances between buyers and sellers have led to a stalemate, with projections pointing toward low-to-moderate growth for the entire quarter.
• Supply-Side Structural Tightening: Manufacturers are prioritizing capacity to meet cloud server demand, leading to expected negative growth in future PC DRAM supply and a drastic reduction in die allocation for module makers.
• Demand & Inventory Status: Higher end-product prices are suppressing retail momentum, causing double-digit QoQ and YoY declines in notebook shipments. As buyers' inventory levels rise slightly, their purchasing approach has turned cautious.
• Negotiation Mindset & Strategic Response: Facing severe cost pressures, buyers are aggressively resisting steep price hikes. Meanwhile, original manufacturers hold the upper hand in bargaining due to minimal inventory clearing pressure, prompting buyers to adopt down-spec dies to manage costs.
• Spot & Die Market Support: Original dies remain scarce. Coupled with steady baseline purchasing and high visibility in server application demand, rigid buying power provides strong support for price firmness.

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