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Soaring memory prices increase system costs and retail prices, hurting the consumer market. TrendForce thus lowered 2026 shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks, and game consoles. Game console makers may abandon price cuts due to costs, shifting to high-price, profit-preserving strategies.
In 3Q25, the smartphone industry benefited from the traditional peak season and the launch of new device models. Smartphone production registered both QoQ and YoY growth. However, moving into 4Q25, the sharp increase in memory costs is expected to significantly impact the profitability of low-end smartphone brands, potentially causing these brands to make downward revisions in their quarterly production volumes. Additionally, the trend of increasing differentiation between the high-end and low-end segments continues. Therefore, the successful implementation of AI features and effective cost control measures will be critical for competitive advantage.
Global smartphone shipments in 2025 are expected to see only slight year-on-year growth, with the Chinese market accounting for nearly one quarter of the world’s total. This market also exhibits a high level of brand concentration, with the top five brands collectively capturing over 80% market share. Looking ahead to next year, the Chinese market may face a decline as the effects of subsidies diminish or are eliminated.
Revenue of mobile DRAM was driven by the increase of contract prices in 3Q25, and accomplished a QoQ growth of nearly 30% in market value. Revenue is looking to continue ascending in 4Q25 after another significant hike of contract prices. With that said, suppliers may shift their resources to product lines of higher profitability or better strategic positions under constraints of capacity, which would further tighten the supply of mobile DRAM and subside the scale of delivery, thus generating negative interferences to the market value of mobile DRAM.
Memory is entering a strong upward cycle, driving a significant rise in overall device BOM cost. To maintain profit margins, brands are adjusting their high-, mid-, and low-tier product mixes and implementing tiered hikes on retail prices. Soaring memory prices, coupled with a weak macro economy, create dual headwinds that will suppress production and shipment momentum for consumer electronics in 2026.
CXMT, through expansions and yield improvement, has once again taken the crown for YoY growth of output bit for 2026. The supplier’s major product, mobile DRAM, highly corresponds to DRAM products required by China, the largest production base of smartphones in the world. China’s subsidy policy, as well as the shortage of LPDDR4X generated by production shift among South Korean and US suppliers, have facilitated a swift expansion of CXMT’s market share.
The 4Q25 contract negotiations for mobile DRAM used in smartphones are expected to conclude only after mid-November. Conversely, quotes for NAND Flash products are relatively certain. Due to production capacity crunch, the price differences of mobile DRAM products for different applications are shrinking. Looking ahead, the structural shortage of the whole memory market is likely to persist until the end of 2026.
CXMT, through capacity expansions, yield improvement, and related policies, has emerged swiftly in the LPDDR4X market. Its production capacity has helped replenished the supply void left behind by major South Korean and US suppliers, who shifted to advanced processes, as well as restructured the supply structure of mobile DRAM for smartphones. CXMT is now also involved in development of new-gen processes and products, but remains uncertain pertaining to G5 and LPDDR6 under restricted exports of US equipment.
Negotiations for 4Q25 contract prices of both Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash are currently undergoing, and risk of price hikes has risen due to confined market activities and price competitions among suppliers.
The 6th to 10th spots of global smartphone ranking for 2025 are occupied by Transsion, Honor, Lenovo, Huawei, and Google in sequential order. Among which, Transsion has slightly dropped in share due to exacerbated competitions of sales markets and memory shortages, while Honor has somewhat declined in overseas sales also due to the interference from memory shortages. Pertaining to memory, both Samsung and Micron are looking to increase their prices higher than the market’s anticipation, whereas SK hynix and CXMT are still on the fence.
Market consolidation in the smartphone industry will persist in the short term, though brand rankings may shift. Apple is set to gain share on strong new model sales, Xiaomi’s in-house chip advances will reinforce its position, and Vivo may rise as Transsion declines.
For memory, Mobile DRAM is expanding into PCs, servers, and automotive sectors with its low power and high-speed advantages, intensifying competition and narrowing price gaps across applications.
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