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Memory is entering a strong upward cycle, driving a significant rise in overall device BOM cost. To maintain profit margins, brands are adjusting their high-, mid-, and low-tier product mixes and implementing tiered hikes on retail prices. Soaring memory prices, coupled with a weak macro economy, create dual headwinds that will suppress production and shipment momentum for consumer electronics in 2026.
CXMT, through expansions and yield improvement, has once again taken the crown for YoY growth of output bit for 2026. The supplier’s major product, mobile DRAM, highly corresponds to DRAM products required by China, the largest production base of smartphones in the world. China’s subsidy policy, as well as the shortage of LPDDR4X generated by production shift among South Korean and US suppliers, have facilitated a swift expansion of CXMT’s market share.
The 4Q25 contract negotiations for mobile DRAM used in smartphones are expected to conclude only after mid-November. Conversely, quotes for NAND Flash products are relatively certain. Due to production capacity crunch, the price differences of mobile DRAM products for different applications are shrinking. Looking ahead, the structural shortage of the whole memory market is likely to persist until the end of 2026.
CXMT, through capacity expansions, yield improvement, and related policies, has emerged swiftly in the LPDDR4X market. Its production capacity has helped replenished the supply void left behind by major South Korean and US suppliers, who shifted to advanced processes, as well as restructured the supply structure of mobile DRAM for smartphones. CXMT is now also involved in development of new-gen processes and products, but remains uncertain pertaining to G5 and LPDDR6 under restricted exports of US equipment.
Negotiations for 4Q25 contract prices of both Mobile DRAM and NAND Flash are currently undergoing, and risk of price hikes has risen due to confined market activities and price competitions among suppliers.
The 6th to 10th spots of global smartphone ranking for 2025 are occupied by Transsion, Honor, Lenovo, Huawei, and Google in sequential order. Among which, Transsion has slightly dropped in share due to exacerbated competitions of sales markets and memory shortages, while Honor has somewhat declined in overseas sales also due to the interference from memory shortages. Pertaining to memory, both Samsung and Micron are looking to increase their prices higher than the market’s anticipation, whereas SK hynix and CXMT are still on the fence.
Market consolidation in the smartphone industry will persist in the short term, though brand rankings may shift. Apple is set to gain share on strong new model sales, Xiaomi’s in-house chip advances will reinforce its position, and Vivo may rise as Transsion declines.
For memory, Mobile DRAM is expanding into PCs, servers, and automotive sectors with its low power and high-speed advantages, intensifying competition and narrowing price gaps across applications.
Samsung leads in smartphone market share, but mid-to-low-end shipments decline due to economic factors and competition. In 2026, select flagship models will feature Exynos 2600, segmenting markets. LPDDR4X supply is tight, likely driving price increases. SanDisk raised NAND Flash prices, but weak demand limits contract price impact, with server demand offering future support. MediaTek and Samsung will launch LPDDR5X-compatible processors, easing LPDDR4X shortages.
In 2Q25, global smartphone production saw a slight increase due to seasonal demand and inventory adjustments. Production estimates for 2025 and 2026 suggest steady growth. Mobile DRAM revenue was driven by low baselines, higher shipments, and price increases. Reduced LPDDR4X supply led to panic buying and significantly higher prices.
The iPhone 17 lineup officially welcomes a new ultra-thin flagship model. Apart from the base variant, all models in the series feature notable upgrades in design and hardware specifications. Although the overall smartphone market faces increasing challenges, both in demand and pricing, shipments are still expected to see slight growth over last year. The Pro series will remain the primary sales driver, while the market acceptance and sales performance of the new Air model will require time to be validated.
Smartphone production is recovering due to seasonal demand and inventory adjustments. Top brands dominate. China's subsidy offers limited long-term impact. Market uncertainty demands agile, diversified strategies.
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