Memory Price Surge to Persist in 1Q26; Smartphone and Notebook Brands Begin Raising Prices and Downgrading Specs, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest investigations reveal that memory prices are projected to rise sharply again in the first quarter of 2026, exerting significant cost pressure on global end-device manufacturers. Consequently, smartphone and notebook brands are compelled to increase their product prices and reduce specifications. A further downward revision of shipment forecasts now seems unavoidable, with market resources becoming more concentrated among a few leading brands.

TrendForce notes that memory is increasingly accounting for a larger share of the BOM costs in consumer devices like smartphones and PCs. Even for Apple, which has strong profitability, the memory component in the total BOM for iPhones is expected to significantly increase in 1Q26. This development may lead Apple to reevaluate pricing strategies for new models and consider reducing or removing price cuts on older versions.

For Android brands targeting the mid- to low-end segments—where memory is a crucial marketing differentiator and a significant part of the BOM—rising memory costs will compel them to raise the launch prices of new models in 2026. They will also need to modify the pricing or lifecycle of existing models to minimize losses.

TrendForce further observes that rising memory costs will prompt notebook brands to adjust their product portfolios, procurement strategies, and regional sales strategies. High-end ultrathin notebooks, which often have mobile DRAM soldered directly onto the motherboard, cannot reduce costs by lowering specifications or replacing modules. Additionally, these models encounter stricter design limitations, making them the segment most prone to experiencing early and significant price pressure.

In the consumer notebook market, demand remains quite responsive to shifts in specifications and pricing. However, current stock levels of finished goods and inexpensive memory help safeguard short-term profits. While prices may stay stable for now, medium- and long-term adjustments, such as lowering specifications or raising prices, are inevitable. TrendForce forecasts more significant price fluctuations in the PC market by the second quarter of 2026.

TrendForce highlights that cutting down on specifications or postponing upgrades has become an essential cost-saving measure for smartphone and laptop manufacturers. This is especially true for DRAM, which makes up the largest portion of memory expenses. 

In high-end and mid-range models, DRAM capacities are expected to hover near the minimum standards, slowing upgrade cycles. The most affected will be the low-end smartphone market, where base models are likely to return to 4GB in 2026. Conversely, for budget notebooks, DRAM cannot be reduced quickly due to processor pairing needs and operating system limitations.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Semiconductor Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at SR_MI@trendforce.com

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