With mobile DRAM inventory restocking largely completed and demand starting to soften, the urgency of procurement negotiations has diminished, and 3Q26 contract price settlements are likely to be pushed back further. On the pricing front, Samsung’s hikes have clearly moderated this quarter, as its previous quotes were already at elevated levels; by contrast, if SK hynix and CXMT aim to close the pricing gap, their increases will appear relatively more pronounced. TrendForce projects that the overall quarterly hike will narrow from last quarter to around 8-13% QoQ.
Looking ahead to 4Q26, under the combined pressure of weak end demand and elevated inventory levels, price increases are expected to further converge. However, the ongoing trend of suppliers shifting capacity toward server and HBM applications will remain intact, providing key support for keeping quarterly contract prices from falling back.
In July, high prices combined with weak consumer demand paralyzed the NAND Flash wafer market, resulting in flat contract prices and extremely low transaction volumes. While mainstream TLC and QLC prices stagnated, MLC recorded slight gains due to supply scarcity and substitution constraints. Overall market sentiment remains strictly cautious.
Resource reallocation to advanced processes has constrained niche capacity. Driven by inelastic demand in networking and automotive applications alongside severe shortages, SLC prices have surged sharply. While MLC retains baseline demand support, downstream cost tolerance has reached its limit, narrowing price gains toward high-level consolidation. Looking ahead, market trajectories are expected to diverge further, with SLC remaining strong and MLC leveling off.
Global server demand remains solid, sustaining stable Enterprise SSD orders. As suppliers boost production, improved supply has eased urgent order pressures and moderated quarterly contract price increases. Looking ahead, rising supply and delayed platform shipments will further cool price gains. Concurrently, the widening unit capacity price gap between high-density SSDs and HDDs is eroding total cost of ownership advantages, posing long-term growth challenges under strict enterprise cost controls.
Steady momentum in AI infrastructure builds is driving robust demand for cloud and server storage, supporting original suppliers in maintaining extremely low inventories and strong pricing leverage. Conversely, squeezed by elevated costs and sluggish demand, consumer electronics brands and module makers have turned conservative, keeping only minimal operational stocks. Consequently, the third-quarter market will exhibit a stark polarization—robust cloud demand contrasted with a muted peak season for consumer products.
Driven by robust AI server demand and capacity displacement from HBM, combined with delayed output from new fabs, DRAM supply remains tightly constrained, sustaining a seller's market. Conversely, boosted by the rollout of new capacity alongside weak consumer demand, NAND Flash is shifting toward a looser supply-demand structure and will face downward price adjustment pressure in the second half of the year, underscoring a clear divergence in their market cycles.
In 2027, supply–demand dynamics for DRAM and NAND Flash are expected to diverge. On the one hand, strong pull ins from AI servers will further widen the supply gap for DRAM. On the other hand, for NAND, weak consumer side demand combined with higher bit output driven by process migrations is likely to push the sufficiency ratio from negative to positive, placing downward pressure on prices in 2H27. However, if only NAND prices correct, the overall relief on total component costs for consumer products will remain quite limited. Overall, the pricing trajectory in 2027 still carries a high degree of uncertainty.
Long-term agreements and server demand provide a solid foundation for the contract market, while consumer memory procurement remains conservative due to cost pressures. The spot market saw a brief price stabilization driven by individual module makers, yet overall buyer momentum remains weak. Looking ahead, market conditions are projected to shift toward oversupply as major suppliers expand capacity and upgrade technology. Future market balance will heavily depend on the accelerated adoption and breakthrough of AI Agent applications to drive enterprise storage demand.
Driven by AI infrastructure, server storage demand surges, prompting manufacturers to shift capacity and advanced nodes. Conversely, consumer electronics languish due to high costs, inflation, and supply squeeze. Contract price growth slows markedly amid buyer resistance, while spot markets weaken, leading to a polarized market entering a plateau.
As memory giants realign capacity toward high-value advanced processes, mature node capacity faces severe compression. This structural shift has caused severe shortages in legacy chips, compelling industrial and automotive customers to adopt SLC as an alternative amid critical MLC deficits. Under the twin pressures of demand spillover and supply disruptions, SLC prices are expected to witness an explosive, structural rally in 2H, shifting the market dynamics from shipment-driven to price-driven.
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