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Micron's Japanese plant at Hiroshima suffered a power outage on July 8. According to TrendForce investigations, this plant's monthly wafer starts accounts for approximately 30% of Micron's total monthly wafer starts in 3Q22. In terms of global wafers starts, this plant’s proportion of wafer starts is approximately 7%. The plant’s primary production process is 1Z nm, accounting for more than 50% of capacity, followed by 1Y nm, accounting for nearly 35%. Although machinery initiated the uninterruptible power supply system when the outage occurred, due to the voltage drop, plant machinery required initialization and inspection. The power outage persisted for approximately 5~10 minutes and the effect on production capacity was limited.
According to TrendForce research, weak terminal demand debuting at the start of this year has led to a steady uptick in inventory pressure. In order to effectively control inventory, IC stocking momentum has trended conservative. Demand also reversed quickly for peripheral ICs that were in short supply in 2021 such as driver ICs, Tcons, and PMICs for panels, causing panel makers' demands on panel driver IC pricing to drop even more in 3Q22. With supply and demand imbalanced and inventory high, the driver IC price drop is expected to expand to 8~10% in 3Q22, and prices falling all the way until the end of the year cannot be ruled out.
According to TrendForce investigations, foundries have seen a wave of order cancellations with the first of these revisions originating from large-size Driver IC and TDDI, which rely on mainstream 0.1Xμm and 55nm processes, respectively. Although products such as MCU and PMIC were previously in short supply, foundries’ capacity utilization rate remained roughly at full capacity through their adjustment of product mix. However, a recent wave cancellations have emerged for PMIC, CIS, and certain MCU and SoC orders. Although still dominated by consumer applications, foundries are beginning to feel the strain of the copious order cancellations from customers and capacity utilization rate has officially declined.
According to TrendForce's latest "2022 Global Automotive LED Product Trend and Regional Market Analysis " report, although demand in the car market will decline in 2022 due to the impact of the Russian-Ukrainian war and China's pandemic resurgence, gains made in the penetration rate of LED headlights coupled with the development of advanced technologies such as intelligent headlights, logo lamps, and intelligent ambient lights will sustain a backstop for market demand in automotive lighting in 2022. At the same time, the soaring cost of plastics will compel automotive lighting product pricing to remain flat or even increase. Therefore, TrendForce forecasts that the market value of the global automotive lighting will reach US$32.68 billion in 2022, 4% YoY. The top five international automotive lighting manufacturers Koito, Valeo, Marelli Automotive Lighting, Hella, and Stanley, maintained a combined market share of 65% in 2021.
According to the latest TrendForce research, despite the rapid weakening of overall consumer demand in 1H22, DRAM manufacturers previously presented a tough stance on price negotiations and gave little ground, steadily conveying inventory pressure from buyers to sellers. Facing uncertain peak-season demand in 2H22, some DRAM suppliers have begun effectively expressing clear intentions to cut prices, especially in the server field, where demand is relatively stable, in order to reduce inventory pressure. This situation will cause 3Q22 DRAM pricing to drop from the previous 3~8% to nearly 10% QoQ. If a price war is incited due to companies competing for sales, the drop in prices may exceed 10%.
