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However, the slump will have yet to reach the bottom at that time. Regarding the QoQ changes in the prices of the major categories of DRAM products for 1Q23, PC DRAM and server DRAM are projected to again register a drop that is near 20%. Conversely, mobile DRAM will experience the smallest price decline because its profit margin is ready the thinnest.
TrendForce projects that the global production capacity for power management ICs will increase by 4.7% YoY for 1H23. In the market for power management ICs, falling demand for products belonging to consumer electronics, networking devices, and industrial equipment continues to generate downward pressure on prices.
Therefore, the QoQ decline in the overall NAND Flash ASP for 1Q23 is currently projected to reach 10~15%, which is smaller than the QoQ decline for 4Q22. Regarding price trends of different NAND Flash products in 1Q23.
This, in turn, will constrain demand bit growth as well. TrendForce projects that for the period from 2022 to 2025, the YoY growth rate of NAND Flash demand bits will remain below 30%.
Global market intelligence firm TrendForce states that Chinese memory manufacturer YMTC is now at risk of exiting the market for 3D NAND Flash products by 2024 following its formal placement on the Entity List of the US Commerce Department on December 15. From this point forward, the Commerce Department will be reviewing and approving individual transactions related to the exportation, re-exportation, and sales of equipment, technologies, and other related goods from the US to YMTC. With acquisitions of equipment parts and technical support from its US partners becoming very difficult and prolonged, YMTC is going to be severely constrained from raising its bit output. Hence, its foothold on the market for 3D NAND Flash products is expected to weaken as time goes by.
