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DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, reports that the bit output from the NAND Flash industry increased steadily in 3Q18, as suppliers raised the yields of their 64/72-layer 3D NAND production. NAND Flash demand, however, had yet to catch up with supply despite the year-end busy season. The shortage of Intel CPUs and the lower-than-expected sales of new iPhone devices have respectively stifled the demand growths related to notebook PCs and smartphones. Also, the US-China trade dispute has been a negative influence on the whole market. Because the NAND Flash market had been in oversupply since the start of 2018, contract prices of NAND Flash products in 3Q18 registered significant declines from the previous quarter, and the average price drop was 10-15%.
The total revenue of the global DRAM industry grew by 9% QoQ, and again hit a new record high in 3Q18, reports DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. The survey of the price trends in the third quarter shows that contract prices in the mainstream application segments (i.e. PC, server, and mobile) maintained QoQ increases of 0-2%. Particularly, the contract price of mainstream DDR3 consumer DRAM was the first to drop during the quarter because of the weakening demand. Also, contract prices of graphics DRAM products fell by around 3% QoQ due to the sharp drop in the demand related to cryptocurrency mining as well as the higher base of the previous quarter.
According to WitsView, a division of TrendForce, the market has witnessed stronger demand for full-screen smartphones while higher screen-to-body ratio has become a major trend of this year. In order to make bezels narrower, drive ICs for mid- and high-end phones have been switching from solutions based on Chip-on-Glass (COG) packaging to those on Chip-on-Film (COF) packaging. With major smartphone vendors actively adopting COF solutions, the percentage of models using COF packaging would account for 35% of the global smartphone market in 2019, a significant increase from 16.5% in 2018.
The NAND Flash market has remained in oversupply for the whole year of 2018, according to DRAMeXchange, a research division of TrendForce, with sufficient inventories for notebook/smartphone OEMs. The China-US trade war and the shortage of Intel CPU have made situations worse on the supply side. In October, the contract prices of SSD, and eMMC/UFS witnessed continued fall, while the price drop of NAND Flash chips and wafers appeared to be larger.
Contract prices of PC DRAM products have started to turn downward sharply this October as major suppliers have completed most contract negotiations, reports DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce. The average price of 4GB PC DRAM modules for 4Q18 contracts has dropped by 10.14% QoQ from US$34.5 in 3Q18 to the current US$31. As for the average contract price of 8GB PC DRAM modules, it has dropped by 10.29% QoQ from US$68 in 3Q18 to the current US$61. Since the DRAM market has just entered oversupply, DRAMeXchange does not discount the possibility of further price declines in November and December. Also, the price decline of 8GB solutions will continue to surpass that of 4GB solutions because DRAM suppliers are now eager to sell off their inventory.
