EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, reports that some countries are planning or have started phasing out their solar subsidy programs as the global solar photovoltaic (PV) industry and market show stability in their development. During 2013-2017, the average annual growth rate of total PV demand was above 20%. However, this strong growth scenario will unlikely to happen in the future. As the market enters a stagnant phase, manufacturers across the PV supply chain have to be more cautious when planning capacity expansion so that they do not risk incurring losses.
In this release, TrendForce provides predictions of the information and communication technology industry for 2019, focusing on 10 key themes. Some of these themes continue from last year but will show significant evolution in the upcoming year.
According to the Solar Powering Taiwan: Special Report by EnergyTrend, the Capex of PV power systems has been decreasing, due to the drop in module prices caused by massive PV installations. In 1H18, the system costs of PV projects in Taiwan have been decreasing, approaching the level in Germany, Italy and the Netherlands. EnergyTrend expects the system costs to drop further in the second half of this year, which may motivate companies to make investments.
Cobalt prices have reached another record high in 1Q18, according to the data from EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce. As the result, the prices of lithium-ion battery cells are estimated to increase by 5~15% QoQ in 3Q18, but would have a chance to remain flat in the fourth quarter.
The global electric vehicle market continues to expand while the oil prices increase, power battery prices decrease, and countries have been proposing stricter CO2 emission targets for vehicles. EnergyTrend, a division of TrendForce, forecasts that the market share of electric vehicles will reach 5% in 2020 and 8~9% in 2023.