According to the latest panel prices released by TrendForce in late January, panel manufacturers continue to implement large-scale production cuts and maintenance plans. Additionally, the shortage of upstream materials for polarizers is affecting the panel prices. 32-inch TV panel prices have seen an increase. Meanwhile, the prices of mainstream sizes for monitor panels are expected to stabilize. Here are the details:
Despite being a slow season for demand in January, panel manufacturers are actively trying to reverse the trend of TV panel price declines through extensive production cuts and maintenance plans.
Recent observations indicate that some Chinese brand customers are increasing their stockpile demand for the North American tax refund season in March-April.
On the other hand, the disruption in the supply of upstream polarizer materials due to the earthquake in Japan at the beginning of the month is also contributing to a stabilization in panel prices. Therefore, the price trend for TV panels in January is expected to see a rise in 32-inch panels, while 43-inch to 75-inch panels are expected to stabilize.
Entering January, despite the onset of a slow season for demand, panel manufacturers are encouraging customers to stock up early due to the upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year in February.
Observations indicate that there is limited room for additional orders in the latter part of January. The shortage of upstream polarizer materials is also expected to impact some VA panels. Therefore, in terms of monitor panel prices for January, mainstream sizes such as 21.5 inches, 23.8 inches, and 27 inches are expected to stabilize, while Open Cell panels are expected to have a downward space of USD 0.1 to 0.2.
After entering the first quarter of 2024, laptop panel demand has significantly weakened, as some customers increased their stockpiles at the end of the previous year. Brand customers are requesting panel manufacturers to lower prices, and panel manufacturers are adopting a relatively soft stance, resulting in downward pressure on panel prices.
Observations of laptop panel price trends in January show that 16:10 models, due to their higher unit prices, still have room for continued convergence with 16:9 models. Therefore, it is expected that the prices of 14-inch 16:10 models will decrease by USD 0.2, and 16-inch 16:10 models will decrease by USD 0.3, with a larger decline. Mainstream 16:9 IPS models are expected to decrease by USD 0.1, while 16:9 TN models are expected to remain stable.
TrendForce discloses the latest panel prices for early January, with details as follows.
Entering the first quarter of 2024, despite the onset of a demand downturn, panel manufacturers are persistently implementing large-scale production cuts and maintenance plans, aiming to create opportunities for a reversal in supply and demand for TV panels.
Currently, observations since December indicate that ter 2 brands have begun increasing inventory for 32″ and 43″ panels, with signs of price increases emerging.
Therefore, the anticipated trend for TV panel prices in January suggests that 32″ and 43″ panels may be the first to stabilize, while the price decline for larger-sized panels is expected to moderate. A projected decrease of $1 for 50″ and 55″, and a decrease of $2 for 65″ and 75″.
Entering 2024, despite current weak demand, panel manufacturers are encouraging early stocking through production cuts and scheduled maintenance plans to seek opportunities for stabilizing monitor panel prices.
Additionally, with potential risks in shipping routes in the current challenging environment, some customers, particularly those focused on the European and American markets, are intensifying their inventory plans.
Therefore, in the price trend for monitor panels in January, mainstream sizes such as 23.8″ and 27″ are expected to decrease by $0.1 and $0.2 for Open-Cell panels. There is also the possibility of further contraction of the decline.
After entering the first quarter of 2024, there is a noticeable decline in demand for NB panels. Brands urgently request panel manufacturers to lower panel prices. Additionally, the lower prices from Tier 2 panel manufacturers contribute to the ongoing downward pressure on panel prices.
Observing the price trend for NB panels in January, for 16:10 models, brands are aiming to narrow the price gap with 16:9 models due to the higher unit price. As a result, the 14″ 16:10 model is expected to decrease by $0.2, and the 16″16:10 model is anticipated to experience a larger decline of $0.3.
The mainstream 16:9 IPS models are expected to decrease by $0.1, while 16:9 TN models are expected to remain relatively stable.
The latest panel price update from TrendForce in early December indicates that prices for TV, notebook, and monitor panels will all decline this month due to the continued weakening of end-user demand. Detailed analysis is as follows:
Entering the fourth quarter, including promotions on Double Eleven and Black Friday, the results have been less than satisfactory. As a result, brands continue to revise down their demand for TV panels.
Panel manufacturers are responding to the declining demand by consistently reducing production, and the extent of production cuts continues to expand. This strategy aims to slow down the pace of price decline.
It is currently anticipated that the price decline for TV panels in December will slightly widen. Prices are expected to drop by USD 2 dollars for 32″ and 43″, USD 3 dollars for 50″ and 55″, and USD 4 dollars for 65″ and 75″.
As for monitor panels, demand has noticeably weakened since the fourth quarter. However, in the past few months, price declines have been observed only in high-end models.
Nevertheless, with some panel manufacturers leading the way by adopting a softer stance on mainstream panel prices, a downward trend in mainstream panel prices has emerged in December.
Currently, the expected decline for December is as follows: a decrease of USD 0.2 dollars for 23.8″ Open Cell panels, and a decrease of USD 0.1 dollars for 21.5″, 23.8″, and 27″.
As for notebook panels, demand has similarly experienced a noticeable decline starting from the fourth quarter, with a trend of continuous downward revisions month by month.
Under the pressure of a sudden drop in demand, there is a growing noise demanding a decline in panel prices. In the past one or two months, panel manufacturers have mostly made concessions in higher-end specifications and 16:10 models to maintain the stability of mainstream 16:9 model prices.
However, it is expected that panel manufacturers may find it challenging to resist brand pressure this month, and the panel prices for mainstream FHD IPS models are anticipated to see a slight decrease of USD 0.1 dollar.
According to TechNews’ report, due to ongoing technology infringement disputes and the uncertainty in the tense relations between China and the United States, Samsung Electronics is cutting ties with the leading Chinese display supplier BOE. They are restructuring their supply chain, and other panel manufacturers such as AU Optronics (AUO), Sharp, and LG Display (LGD) are expected to benefit.
According to the Korean media outlet BusinessKorea’s report, industry insiders from South Korea revealed on the 15th that BOE is no longer among Samsung’s top three suppliers for TV panels in Q3, and its market share is starting to decline.
BOE accounted for approximately 10% of Samsung’s TV panel procurement in the first half of the year, originally ranking third among major panel suppliers.。
From the Q3 financial report, it is evident that Samsung has removed BOE from the main supplier list for TV and display screen device panels in the Device Experience (DX) division. This marks the first time since Q4 2015. Analysts believe that Samsung aims to restructure its partner relationships, focusing on domestic enterprises.
Samsung Electronics is planning to sever its medium to long-term partnership with BOE, primarily due to a patent infringement lawsuit involving its subsidiary Samsung Display (SDC) and BOE.
Insiders have revealed that collaboration between Samsung and BOE in the mobile phone panel sector has already ended. As for TV panels, the relationship has become tense due to significant cost pressure on Samsung caused by the panel manufacturer aggressively raising TV panel prices.
South Korean industry insiders anticipate that Samsung will increase collaboration with other suppliers, including LGD, Sharp, and AUO. Industry experts suggest that for next year’s TV panel procurement allocation, Samsung intends to increase the proportion of panels sourced from Japanese, Taiwanese, and South Korean manufacturers.
However, considering the significant production capacity of Chinese panel manufacturers and their production advantages in certain sizes, Samsung does not plan to completely sever cooperation.
Currently, Chinese panel manufacturers maintain an absolute advantage in global production capacity and are working to mend customer relationships. Besides, AUO’s TV panel production capacity may not be able to fully meet customer demands.
Reportedly, in preparation for the supply chain restructuring, LGD plans to increase the utilization rate of its LCD plant in Guangzhou, China, raising shipments from 9 million units this year to 16 million units next year.
TrendForce released the early November panel price trends today, with TV panel prices experiencing an unstoppable decline, while MNT (Monitor) and NB panel prices remained relatively stable.
Entering the fourth quarter, TV panel shipments continue to weaken. However, the attempt by agents to influence panel prices through a surge in shipments of small-sized TV panels seems to have subsided, and panel prices are returning to a more balanced negotiation between buyers and sellers.
Major TV brands have been adjusting their orders since the latter half of the third quarter, and these adjustments have expanded into the all panel sizes in the fourth quarter.
Although panel manufacturers are still controlling production, it appears that they are finding it challenging to resist the decline in panel prices due to sluggish demand. As of the current outlook, it is expected that in November, panel prices will decrease by 2-dollar for the entire month in the sizes of 32″, 43″, 50″, and 55″, while sizes of 65″ and 75″ will experience a 3-dollar drop, and 85″ will face a 5-dollar decline.
Entering the fourth quarter, demand for MNT panels has started to weaken. In October, mainstream panel sizes showed a tendency to stabilize in terms of pricing, with only some high-end models having slight room for price reductions, especially for high refresh rate specifications.
Currently, it is expected that panel manufacturers will continue to maintain a stable price trend for mainstream size MNT panels in November. However, should brand demand fall short of expectations, there is a possibility of price decreases, particularly in Open Cell panels or in larger-sized, high-end models.
Entering the fourth quarter, demand for NB panels continues to weaken. However, panel manufacturers remain committed to maintaining stable panel prices, especially as they face downward price pressures in TV and MNT panels. Panel manufacturers are reluctant to make significant concessions on NB panel prices, except for the possibility of offering certain discounts through project-based bundling models.
Currently, it is expected that NB panel prices, whether for entry-level TN panels or mid- to high-range IPS panels, will continue to maintain a stable trend in November.