Polysilicon

In the polysilicon market, post-holiday trading sentiment remains subdued, with overall deliveries primarily focusing on delivering previous orders. After the recent price hikes for polysilicon, trading activity has been tepid. Ingot manufacturers are mainly adopting a wait-and-see attitude, purchasing only as needed.

Polysilicon output is expected to see a slight rebound of nearly 2% this month, reaching about 130,000 to 140,000 tons. The demand for polysilicon may decrease further, and surplus supply could potentially become more serious this month.

Polysilicon prices are likely to stabilize this month under manufacturers’ firm stance, with future observations focusing on capacity adjustments and the impact of pre-stocking for the polysilicon futures market on the supply-demand balance.

Wafers

On the supply side, wafer production continues its downward trend month-on-month, estimated to be in the 48-49 GW range. On the demand side, the downward trend in cell production persists, and with module manufacturers continuously forcing prices down, the price pressure on wafers remains high, offering limited support.

The demand for 182N wafers has turned downward, and the proportion of production in this category has also been reduced this month. Meanwhile, the share of 210RN wafers in total output has increased significantly, with 210 wafers (R-type) accounting for nearly 20%. The gap caused by adjustments in downstream product sizes is rapidly being filled, leading to an oversupply of wafer and further price pressure on wafer manufacturers.

Cells

Cell production is expected to decrease by 4-5% month-on-month, with cell production adjusted down to 50-51 GW. This trend of production divergence is expected to intensify in Q4. On the demand side, major manufacturers have seen a slight recovery in orders due to the booming ground-mount installations, but overall module production recovery remains limited. The intense price competition in the module sector makes it difficult to support cell prices.

Prices for certain sizes have been revised downward this week, with P-type M10 and G12 both falling to RMB 0.27/W, while N-type G12R saw a faster production surplus, dropping to RMB 0.27/W as well.

Modules

Module production this month shows divergence. Overall, monthly production is up by 3-4%, reaching 49-50 GW. On the demand side, centralized PV installations have led to a slight recovery in orders for some manufacturers, but there has been no clear recovery in distributed PV projects. Overseas, inventory backlog issues in Europe are intensifying, leading to another month-on-month decline in module prices.

Prices for all types of modules remained stable this week. For bifacial M10-TOPCon modules, major manufacturers have adjusted their pricing range to RMB 0.65-0.73/W, while smaller manufacturers are offloading inventory at lower prices around RMB 0.65/W to return cash flow. For bifacial G12-HJT modules, mainstream pricing is concentrated in the RMB 0.75-0.83/W range.

PV Glass

On the supply side, production is expected to decrease month-on-month due to line maintenance and kiln closures. On the demand side, September saw relatively low stocking levels among module manufacturers. With the expected increase in module production post-holiday, stocking activity should pick up. However, rising inventories and a continued decline in upstream soda ash prices will continue to exert significant pressure on PV glass prices.

According to the latest customs data, China’s polysilicon import volume in August 2024 were 4,532 tons, a month-on-month increase of 55.13%. Among them, the import volume from Germany was 3829.3 tons, accounting for 84.50% of the total import volume.

Compared with the data in July, it increased by 117.67% month-on-month, which was the largest importer of polysilicon in China that month. The import volume from Malaysia was 417.6 tons, accounting for 9.21% of the total import volume, a month-on-month decrease of 59.30%. Polysilicon imported from the above two countries accounted for 93.71% of the total imports. The rebound in polysilicon imports in August was mainly due to overseas manufacturers stocking up in China. Therefore, it is speculated that silicon imports will decline slightly in September.

The average import price of polysilicon in August was 23.92 US dollars/kg, down 1.81% from the previous month. The average import prices from the two major import source countries were 23.87 US dollars/kg (Germany) and 16.70 US dollars/kg (Malaysia), with prices falling 11.05% and 13.29% respectively. It is the first time for import prices to fall in recent months. It is forecasted that early high-price urgent orders have basically been fulfilled in August, and imported silicon prices will mainly remain flat in September.

According to the latest customs data, China’s polysilicon export volume in August 2024 was 4042.7 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 30.21%. Among them, the export volume to Vietnam was 1,596 tons, accounting for 39.48% of the total export volume. The export volume to Malaysia was 1,128 tons, accounting for 27.90% of the total export volume, and the polysilicon exported to the above two places accounted for 67.38% of the total volume.

In August, China’s exports showed a significant increase in exports to the EU, while exports to ASEAN countries weakened. The policy of photovoltaic installation subsidies in Europe is a potential reason for the improvement in demand in places such as the Netherlands. Export progress to Malaysia and other ASEAN countries has declined due to tight shipping capacity and port congestion. In addition, the uncertainty caused by the US election has also inhibited the growth of exports to ASEAN countries.

In August, the average prices of the two major exporting countries were 7.18 US dollars/kg for Vietnam and 9.73 US dollars/kg for Malaysia, with a month on month increase of 24.57% and 6.18%, respectively.

China’s export controls on antimony are set to take effect on September 15th. Furthermore, according to a report from Liberty Times Net, it is indicated that these controls could be escalated, with plans to impose additional restrictions on tungsten by the end of this year.

Addressing the matter, as per another report from CNBC, Lewis Black, CEO of Canada-based Almonty Industries, remarked that just three months ago, no one would have expected China to take such actions.

He pointed out that this move by China has unsettled many in the industry, including clients who lack backup plans—a fact that China is well aware of. Such a situation hasn’t been seen in 30 years.

Additionally, Tony Adock, executive chairman of Tungsten Metals Group, expressed that he views this as the start of broader restrictions on the export of certain rare earths and minerals. He finds it unlikely that China will stop at limiting antimony.

Per the latest annual report from the U.S. Geological Survey, in 2023, China was the world’s largest producer of antimony, with a production of 83,000 tons last year, accounting for 48% of the global supply.

On the other hand, the U.S. did not mine any commercially viable antimony. The report also noted that the U.S. has not engaged in commercial tungsten mining since 2015, with China dominating the global tungsten supply.

Tungsten, with a hardness nearly equivalent to that of diamond, is used in weapons, semiconductors, and industrial cutting tools. Both tungsten and antimony are listed as critical minerals by the U.S. government, and they are located within 10 elements of each other on the periodic table.

In response to these developments, Black’s company is said to be planning to spend at least USD 125 million later this year to reopen a tungsten mine in South Korea.

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On August 15, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced restrictions on the export of the strategic mineral antimony for national security reasons, set to take effect on September 15, 2024. According to sources cited by the Commercial Times, the market price of antimony could skyrocket to USD 30,000 per ton.

Antimony is strategically significant due to its extensive applications in solar photovoltaics, batteries, fireproof materials, military equipment, and even nuclear weapons.

Meanwhile, as per data from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), China is the world’s largest producer of antimony, with a production of 83,000 tons last year, accounting for 48% of the global supply. Other major producers include Myanmar, with 4,600 tons annually, Turkey with 6,000 tons, and Tajikistan with 21,000 tons.

The report from Asia Financial on August 17 indicated that around 20% of the world’s antimony is used in manufacturing solar photovoltaic glass to enhance the performance of solar cells. Most of the remaining supply is used in lead-acid batteries.

Additionally, antimony has growing strategic importance due to its role as a key material in military equipment such as nuclear weapons, infrared missiles, and night vision devices, as well as a hardening agent for bullets and tanks.

As a result, the global supply of antimony is facing a shortage. Reportedly, since the beginning of this year, the price of this rare metal has already doubled, with current trading prices exceeding USD 22,000 per ton, setting a historic high.

Chetan Soni, president of the UK-based Commodity Research Unit (CRU), stated that given the current historical high prices, China’s recent announcement could further drive up prices. He added that prices might reach USD 30,000 per ton as buyers seek to secure future production or stockpile materials.

Soni believes that if antimony prices rise again, it will increase the Western world’s dependence on China’s critical minerals, including rare earths, gallium, and germanium, which have also faced export restrictions since last year.

Part of the market supply tightness may be due to disruptions in Russian supply, caused by sanctions imposed after Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, as well as a reduction in domestic production in Russia.

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• With the Ongoing Expansion of Global EV Battery Market, China’s Dominant Position Steadily Strengthens

In recent years, the rapid growth of EV and energy storage markets has driven robust demand for lithium-ion batteries (LiBs). Data shows that in 2023, the total shipment of LiBs exceeded 1 terawatt-hour (TWh) for the first time, with the market size growing more than tenfold compared to 2015, and EV battery shipment accounted for over 70% of the general battery shipment.

As the electric vehicle and energy storage markets continue to grow, the demand for LiBs will enjoy further expansion, with global LiBs shipment expected to outstrip 3,200 GWh by 2027.

Despite the fact that LiB was initially commercialized in Japan in the 1990s and long dominated by Japanese and South Korean manufacturers, over two decades later, China has leapfrogged the two nations. Currently, over 75% of the world’s LiBs are produced in China, marking China’s top position in manufacturing LiB.

Likewise, in the EV battery sector, which accounts for the largest demand in the LiB market, six out of the top ten manufacturers globally are headquartered in China, including CATL, BYD, CALB, Gotion High-Tech, EVE Energy, and Sunwoda, which are expected to hold increasingly higher market shares while the market shares of Japanese and South Korean companies is declining year by year.

For instance, Panasonic’s market share in the EV battery market has dropped to around 6%, and the combined market share of South Korean manufacturers to approximately 23%.

However, with the advancement and breakthroughs in next-generation automotive battery technology—all-solid-state battery (ASSB) technology—the position of traditional liquid-state battery is being challenged.

• Next-Generation Battery Technology Comes to the Fore

On January 3, 2024, PowerCo, a battery subsidiary of Volkswagen, announced that its partner, QuantumScape, had successfully passed its first endurance test on solid-state batteries, achieving over 1,000 charge-discharge cycles while maintaining a capacity of over 95%.

Additionally, in September 2023, another solid-state battery listed company based in the US, Solid Power, announced that its first batch of A-1 solid-state battery samples had been officially delivered to BMW for automotive verification testing. BMW aims to launch its first prototype vehicle based on Solid Power’s solid-state battery technology by 2025.

Last year, Toyota has repeatedly stated its intention to commercialize solid-state battery technology by 2027-2028.

• Does All-Solid-State Battery (ASSB) Technology Truly has the Potential to Overturn Liquid-State Battery Technology?

Traditional liquid-state LiB is primarily composed of cathode and anode electrodes, separator, and electrolyte. The cathode and anode electrode materials play the role of storing lithium, which affects the battery’s energy density, while the electrolyte mainly influences the motion rate of lithium ion during charging and discharging processes, typically using liquid (Organic solvents) as the electrolyte.

However, during the charge-discharge process of traditional liquid-state LiB, side reactions can easily occur on the electrode surface. For example, lithium dendrites formed on the surface of the anode electrode can easily penetrate the separator, causing a short circuit between the cathode and anode electrodes and leading to battery fires.

In addition, the liquid electrolyte is a flammable substance, making liquid-state batteries prone to ignition and explosion under high temperatures or when the battery experiences external impacts that result in a short circuit. Therefore, liquid-state battery faces significant challenges in terms of safety.

Compared to liquid-state LiB, the electrolyte in ASSB is solid, which is less volatile or prone to combustion. Meanwhile, solid-state electrolytes are temperature-stable and less prone to decomposition, rendering them highly safe.

Furthermore, solid-state electrolytes exhibit better stability and mechanical properties, providing superior suppression of lithium dendrites and thereby enhancing battery safety.

On the other hand, traditional liquid-state LiB is limited in their choice of materials due to their narrow electrochemical window and side reactions between the liquid electrolyte and the cathode and anode electrode materials. Solid-state electrolytes, however, offer a wider electrochemical window and fewer side reactions, allowing for a broader range of electrode materials to be used in solid-state battery.

This enables the use of higher energy density active materials. For instance, solid-state battery based on lithium metal anodes can achieve energy densities of over 500 Wh/kg, while liquid-state LiBs can hardly reach this level, with a theoretical energy density limit of 350 Wh/kg. Currently, traditional liquid-state LiBs have approached their theoretical energy density limit, and there’s little room for further improvement.

On top of that, ASSB also boasts better temperature adaptability (-30 to 100°C) and high power characteristic, which can help improve the operating temperature range and fast-charging performance of EV battery.

Meanwhile, as there is no need for liquid electrolytes and separators, the weight of ASSB cells can be reduced. Additionally, processes such as electrolyte filling, degassing, molding, and aging can be removed during the cell assembly process, simplifying the cell manufacturing process. As a whole, given its outstanding performance, ASSB indeed holds the potential to revolutionize liquid-state LiB.

Currently, ASSB, in face of a series of technical challenges, has not yet achieved large-scale production. These challenges include the batch preparation of electrolyte materials, interface stability/side effects between solid materials, as well as the breakthrough of technical hurdles in cell preparation processes, production equipment, and other aspects.

Still, with significant attention and investment from countries worldwide, including Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US, ASSB has made important progresses and is expected to achieve mass production within 3-5 years.

• Will China be Overtaken in the Market Competition of All-Solid-State Battery?

Currently, ASSB has emerged as the high ground in the competition for next-generation battery technology. The development of ASSB has been listed as a national development strategy by major countries and regions such as Japan, South Korea, the US, and the European Union, and global enterprises are actively making inroads in this field.

Based on different solid electrolyte technical routes, ASSB can be divided into four types: polymer, oxide, halide, and sulfide solid-state batteries. Each of these technology routes has its own advantages and disadvantages. Currently, Japan and South Korea mainly select sulfide as the primary technical route.

In light of the development progress of ASSB in major regions globally, Japan is an early starter in R&D, which takes a lead in the application of patents, and accumulates the most solid-state battery patented technologies worldwide. Japanese companies like Toyota and Nissan have stated their intention to achieve mass production of ASSB around 2028.

In South Korea, major battery manufacturers like Samsung SDI, SK Innovation, and LG Energy Solutions continue to invest in R&D. Samsung SDI completed the construction of a pilot production line (S-line) for ASSBs in 2023 and plans to achieve mass production in 2027.

In the United States, solid-state battery development is primarily led by startups with high innovation potential. Companies like QuantumScape and Solid Power have solid-state battery products in the A-sample stage, while SES’ lithium-metal solid-state batteries have entered the B-sample stage. Other US companies such as Ampcera, Factorial Energy, 24M Technologies, and Ionic Materials have channeled more efforts in solid-state battery technical innovation.

Overall, the period around 2028 is expected to be tipping point for the mass production of ASSB.

Although China is currently the world’s largest manufacturer of LiB, there is still a significant gap between Chinese companies and international ones in terms of patent layout for ASSB.

Additionally, China’s solid-state battery technical routes are diverse, with a focus mainly on semi-solid/state-liquid hybrids, with semi-solid-state battery achieving small-scale production and adoption in vehicles, but investment in ASSB remains insufficient in China, and resources are dispersed. This has led to a significant difference compared to international forerunners.

Therefore, in the future competition for ASSB, companies from Japan, South Korea, Europe, and the US have the opportunity to surpass China and reshape the competitive landscape of future EV battery industry.

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