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Demand in end applications has weakened in 1Q19, causing COFs (Chip on film) to exhibit no signs of undersupply in the market. However, according to WitsView, a division of TrendForce, problems in COF supply will begin to become felt in 2Q as demand rises due to the need to stock up. Also entertained is the possibility that there will be a 6-7% gap in demand in 2H this year, and glut ratio for the entire year is estimated to stand at 0.3%. COF will be key in determining whether panel manufacturers may reach shipment goals.
TrendForce states that the global 3D sensing market for smartphones has grown from 819 million USD in 2017 to 3.08 billion USD in 2018 as iPhones make a complete switch to structured light 3D sensing solutions. Yet due to smartphone suppliers mostly focusing on fingerprint on display (FOD), the global smartphone 3D sensing market is expected to grow by 26.3%, to a scale of 3.89 billion USD. Apple, anticipated to take up TOF technology in 2020, may boost market development and bring YoY growth up to 53.1%.
According to the research report by WitsView , a divison of TrendForce , on the supply and demand situation for large-sized panels, production capacity expansions by three of China's production lines and the 8.5 Gen production line belonging to Taiwan's AU Optronics have brought about the 202.4 million square-meter supply area in 2018, presenting a growth of 7.9% YoY, the largest since 2013. TV panel demand was driven up by the FIFA fever and profit cuts in the first half-year , while PC panel demand benefited from specification upgrades and the rising demand in gaming, with overall demand area covering 198.5 million square meters, a growth of 9.5% YoY. The glut ratio for the entire 2018 year shrank from the projected 2.4% to 2%.
DRAMeXchange, a division of TrendForce, points out that the drop in DRAM contract prices continues to grow in the first quarter due to the overabundance in inventory levels, falling by over 20% in overall ASP. The accelerating drop in prices did not stimulate a recovery in demand, and transactions have still been few. DRAM ASP is predicted to continue falling well into the third quarter as inventories clearouts have yet to be completed.
DRAMeXchange , a division of TrendForce , points out that 1Q19 contract prices across all NAND Flash product categories were impacted by a weak server demand, an extended smartphone replacement cycle, less-than-expected sales for Apple's new phones and other end demand disappointments. Combined with the quarter fall, this quarter presents a drop of 20%, the most dramatic drop since NAND Flash supply surpassed demand back in early 2018.
