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Chinese manufacturers are expected to raise their market share from 39% this year to 52% next year in the monitor panel market, and 36% to 39% in the notebook panel market, according to TrendForce’s preliminary shipment forecast of panel makers for 2021. As such, these manufacturers are expected to maintain their plans of transitioning some production capacities from TV panel manufacturing to IT panel manufacturing in spite of the TV panel shortage in 2H20 caused by various factors such as the closedown of SDC’s LCD panel manufacturing operations, the rise of the stay-at-home economy, and the stimulus policies instituted by governments worldwide.
Owing to a 20% increase in TV demand in North America, as well as the fact that TV brands had deferred their shipment schedules in 1H20 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of the third-quarter cyclical upturn were further compounded in 3Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Quarterly TV shipment reached a historical high of 62.05 million units in 3Q20, which was a 38.8% increase QoQ and 12.9% increase YoY.
The memory market (including DRAM and NAND Flash) is still in a state of oversupply in 4Q20, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. In light of recent U.S. sanctions against Huawei, other smartphone brands have been actively stocking up on memory products in an effort to capture Huawei’s lost market shares, but this procurement momentum is insufficient to improve the lethargic state of the memory market. In addition, as memory demand from the server industry has yet to make a noticeable recovery, overall memory ASP is expected to remain weak in 4Q20 and decrease by about 10% QoQ.
In this release, TrendForce provides its forecast of 10 key trends in the tech industry for 2021.
On October 4, 2020, SMIC made formal announcements assessing the Commerce Department’s notification to SMIC's suppliers that they will be restricted from shipping certain U.S.-originated equipment, components, and raw materials to the Chinese foundry, according to TrendForce's latest investigations. U.S.-based semiconductor equipment suppliers, including Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA, are expected to bear the brunt of the impact from the latest sanction against SMIC, while Netherlands-based ASML will be affected as well, since its machines contain U.S.-originated key components. By contrast, TrendForce’s preliminary analysis indicates that the export restrictions will likely have less of an impact on suppliers of silicon wafers and other raw chemical materials for semiconductors, since these suppliers are mostly Japanese and European companies.
