In this release, TrendForce provides its forecast of 10 key trends in the tech industry for 2021.
On August 17, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced the latest revisions to its Entity List, which now includes 38 additional Huawei subsidiaries. Suppliers are prohibited from providing semiconductor products and components manufactured with U.S. equipment and software to Huawei and its subsidiaries. TrendForce provides the following analyses on the impacts that the expanded sanctions against Huawei have on five tech industries, including semiconductors, memory products, smartphones, display panels, and 5G communications.
5G communications have seen various uses in telemedicine and industrial IoT during the spread of COVID-19 in 2020, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Primary applications of 5G during this period include contactless disinfection robots, remote work, and distance learning. Currently, China has been most aggressive in developing 5G networks, with more than 400 5G-related innovative applications in transportation, logistics, manufacturing, and healthcare in 1H20. At the same time, the emergence of 5G services has created a corresponding surge in base station demand.
The share of connected cars is steadily rising in the new car market, owing to the rapid development of V2X in recent years, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. As well, 3GPP, the standards-setting organization for telecommunications protocols, announced on July 3rd that it had approved Stage 3 of 5G Release 16 (R16). This marks the completion of 5G Phase 2, after which the industry will see a rising number of supported 5G applications, including autonomous driving. This represents a further expansion of V2X applications. As such, the number of connected cars sold in the new car market is projected to reach about 74 million units in 2025, an 80% penetration rate.
RF front-end component IDM and foundry revenues will be affected under the dual influences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Chinese government’s policy of decoupling from the U.S., driven by the ever-intensifying U.S.-China trade war that began in 2019, according to TrendForce’s latest investigations. Lowered demand for telecommunications end-devices in 2020 is also expected to lead to a bearish market for GaAs RF front end as well. GaAs RF front end revenue is projected to reach US$5.793 billion this year, a 3.8% decline YoY.