In Q3, TV panel purchasing momentum is strong, with an estimated 7~8% growth by QoQ. Manufacturers are confident in raising prices due to increased demand, aiming to turn TV panel production profitable. As a result, TV panel prices are expected to continue rising, with increases of 2~8 USD for different sizes.

Monitor panel prices continue to rise in July, with consumer models showing higher demand than commercial ones. Brands focused on consumer models or smaller secondary brands are more likely to experience moderate price increases. Anticipated price adjustments for July: Open Cell products are up by around 0.2 ~0.5 USD, the 21.5-inch panel is up by 0.2 USD, the 23.8-inch panel is up by 0.2 USD, and 27-inch panel price remains unchanged.

In Q3, panel manufacturers consider raising prices for NB panels. Q2 saw a 30% shipment growth due to increased demand from brand customers, but Q3 demand is expected to be cautious, leading to a 3% shipment increase. Lower-end TN models have higher demand than IPS ones. Anticipated July prices: 14-inch and 15.6-inch TN models may see a slight 0.1 USD increase, while IPS models remain unchanged.

According to the latest panel price analysis released by TrendForce in late June, TV panel prices continue to rise as panel manufacturers maintain control over their production capacity, ensuring a balance between supply and demand.

Despite lackluster sales performance during the 618 promotion, there has been a significant increase in sales revenue, reflecting strong demand for large-sized products with higher prices. Brand customers have not adjusted their procurement needs accordingly, and overall procurement demand is expected to continue growing as they prepare for the peak season in the second half of the year. This sustained growth in demand is likely to support the continuous upward trend in panel prices. Currently, it is projected that in June, prices for 32-inch panels will increase by 2 US dollars, 43-inch panels by 3 US dollars, 50-inch panels by 7 US dollars, and 55-inch panels by 8 US dollars. Meanwhile, 65-inch and 75-inch panels are expected to see an increase of 10 US dollars.

Following two consecutive months of price hikes by Taiwanese panel manufacturers, Korean and Chinese panel manufacturers have also begun considering raising prices. However, the recent weak demand in the commercial market has led brand customers, primarily focused on commercial sales, to continuously revise down their shipment forecasts. Consequently, the inclination towards price hikes is conservative, and both buyers and sellers remain in a stalemate. It is currently anticipated that Open Cell panel prices for this month will continue the upward trend of the past two months, with an expected increase of approximately 0.2 to 0.5 US dollars. As for panel module pricing, there is a possibility of a 0.1 US dollars increase for 21.5-inch and 23.8-inch organic panels, while 27-inch panels are expected to maintain a stable trend.

The demand for notebook (NB) panels is showing a monthly improvement trend. After several months of price stability, panel manufacturers are gradually becoming more inclined to raise prices. However, brand customers remain cautiously optimistic about the demand in the second half of the year and continue to exercise restraint in their stocking pace. Therefore, the idea of price increases is still leaning towards a conservative and resistant stance. It is currently expected that panel prices in June will remain stable. However, with the ongoing increase in demand, it is not ruled out that starting from July, certain NB panel prices may experience a slight upward trend.

Demand for stocking up ahead of the upcoming June 18th promotion is dwindling, and the TV panel market is gradually returning to normal levels. Panel manufacturers are carefully managing production rates to maintain a balanced supply and demand. As a result, TV panel prices are expected to continue their strong upward trend in May. Anticipated price increases include a $1 rise for 32-inch panels, $2 for 43-inch panels, $9 for 50-inch panels, $10 for 55-inch panels, $12 for 65-inch panels, and $11 for 75-inch panels.

As TV panel prices continue to rise, monitor panel prices are also showing signs of potential increases. Open Cell products, including VA and IPS panels, may see price adjustments ranging from $0.2 to $0.5 in May. The panel module market is well supplied, with different strategies among regional manufacturers. Only Taiwanese manufacturers have confirmed price hikes, while others remain cautious. The possibility of customers adjusting orders due to differing price strategies could result in shifting demand. Overall, mainstream panel module prices are expected to remain stable in May, with a chance of $0.3 to $1 increases for smaller sizes.

While overall notebook panel demand has been increasing month by month since 2Q23, most of it is driven by urgent orders. Due to the uncertain future demand outlook from brand customers, panel manufacturers are cautious about raising prices. Brand customers have replenished their panel inventory to a healthier level, but without proactive stocking, panel prices are unlikely to see a short-term improvement. In May, panel manufacturers can only maintain stable prices, and the possibility of price increases depends on clear signs of significant demand recovery from brand customers.

In May, TV panel prices are expected to continue rising due to strong inventory momentum and dynamic operating capacity utilization by panel manufacturers. Especially Chinese manufacturers aim to restore TV product profits to above break-even points by the end of Q2, so the price increase of TV panels in May is significant. Full-size TV panel prices are expected to increase by 1~10 USD, which are all predicted to rise above cash costs in May.

VA panels are in higher demand than IPS panels for monitors currently, and Open Cell panel prices have slightly risen in recent months. The monitor panels are expected to continue to rise by 0.3~0.5 USD in May. Module product demand outlook is uncertain, with limited price increase space, so prices will likely remain stable in May. Taiwanese panel manufacturers have released information on price increases for monitor panels, and their impact on the market atmosphere and price trends needs to be observed still.

Demand momentum for notebook panels is slowly increasing, but the overall demand outlook is unclear, so the NB brands remain conservative attitude on their panel inventory. Meanwhile, the NB brands are expected to be high-maintenance while dealing with the tentative messages about raising the NB panel prices from panel manufacturers. Therefore, TrendForce believes that notebook panel prices are expected to remain stable in May.

Industry trend & Price trend

IT panel industry is expected to see a peak season in the second half of the year. Indicators such as channel inventory and brand inventory have improved from the slump last year, and a rebound in demand can be expected in the second half of the year. However, commercial IT panels are being purchased quite cautiously due to high inflation and economic uncertainties, while consumer IT panels can be expected to perform better.

In the display sector, there has been an observed increase in prices for gaming monitors, but it is unlikely to see a large-scale replenishment like in the TV market due to sufficient supply of IT panels and increasing production capacity in China. There is limited room for a significant price increase, but consumer displays may experience a small rebound, unlike commercial displays.

As for TVs, it is expected that the cost of production will surpass cash cost in May and June, leading panel manufacturers to increase their production rates. The extent of this increase will be crucial, as it could potentially drive panel prices higher or stall the price increase altogether. Production increase poses a significant uncertainty for supply and price hikes, with the third quarter remaining a key period that will depend on demand. If China returns to cash levels, higher production rates could be a potential risk.

Utilization rate

According to TrendForce, global panel manufacturers had a production capacity utilization rate of around 67%-68% in the first quarter, which is expected to increase to 73%-74% in the second quarter. The third quarter is conservatively estimated to reach utilization rate of nearly 80%.

China Dominates the LCD Market

As Samsung and LG Display gradually withdraw from the LCD market, Chinese panel manufacturers continue to expand their market share. This year, the global shipment volume for TV panels is expected to reach 70% market share.