The global semiconductor market is nearing the end of its inventory cycle. With the rise of AI-related applications, new energy vehicles, 5G, high-performance computing, and other emerging sectors, industry experts estimate that the global semiconductor industry could reach a valuation of $1 trillion by around 2030.

Recently, new signals have emerged from various regions globally, including China, South Korea, and Japan. Based on the changing data, the growth in different sectors reflects shifts in supply and demand, indicating a widespread recovery trend in the semiconductor industry.

South Korea: Memory Chip Exports Surge by 60.7% YoY

On October 14, local time, data from South Korea’s Ministry of Science and ICT showed that boosted by record semiconductor sales, South Korea’s ICT (Information and Communication Technology) exports in September 2024 increased by 24% year-on-year to 22.36 billion USD(about 160 billion RMB), marking the 11th consecutive month of growth and the second-highest monthly figure on record.

In the semiconductor sector, South Korea’s semiconductor exports amounted to 13.63 billion USD (about 96.5 billion RMB) in September 2024, a historical high, with a 36.3% year-on-year increase.

Notably, memory chip exports surged 60.7% year-on-year to 8.72 billion USD, a nearly 20% increase compared to the previous month. System semiconductor exports rose 5.2% year-on-year to 4.37 billion USD. The Ministry highlighted that the demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) and other high-value-added products has fueled significant growth in memory semiconductor exports.

South Korea is home to two of the world’s largest memory manufacturers: Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. According to TrendForce, Samsung and SK Hynix occupy the top two spots globally in the DRAM and NAND Flash markets, followed by Micron. Hence, South Korea’s semiconductor sector remains a focal point for the industry.

Additionally, the memory market has experienced significant fluctuations this year, with concerns about future trends.

TrendForce data indicated that before the third quarter of 2024, demand for consumer products remained weak, with AI servers driving the primary demand for memory. However, as HBM gains more market share, it is crowding out the capacity for existing DRAM products, leading suppliers to maintain certain pricing levels for contracts. Although server OEMs have maintained momentum in placing orders, smartphone brands are still cautious.

TrendForce forecasts that the growth rate of memory prices will significantly slow in the fourth quarter. Conventional DRAM prices are expected to increase by 0% to 5%, but with HBM accounting for a larger proportion of sales, the overall DRAM price is estimated to rise by 8% to 13%, marking a noticeable slowdown compared to the previous quarter.

China: Integrated Circuit Exports Grow by 22%

According to recent statistics from Chinese customs, China’s total imports and exports reached 32.33 trillion RMB in the first three quarters of 2024, up by 5.3% year-on-year. Of this, exports grew by 6.2% to 18.62 trillion RMB, and imports increased by 4.1% to 13.71 trillion RMB.

In terms of exports, China’s exports of mechanical and electrical products reached 11.03 trillion RMB in the first three quarters, an increase of 8%, accounting for 59.3% of total exports. Notably, high-end equipment exports grew by 43.4%, while exports of integrated circuits, automobiles, and household appliances rose by 22%, 22.5%, and 15.5%, respectively.

In terms of imports, China’s integrated circuit and auto parts imports grew by 13.5% and 4.6%, respectively, in the first three quarters. Consumer goods imports exceeded 1.3 trillion RMB.

Regionally, China’s trade with over 160 countries and regions has grown, indicating steady diversification. Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 15.21 trillion RMB, growing by 6.3% and accounting for 47.1% of China’s total trade. Trade with RCEP members grew by 4.5%, with ASEAN trade increasing by 9.4%. Meanwhile, trade with the EU and the U.S. grew by 0.9% and 4.2%, respectively.

Japan: Semiconductor Equipment Exports to China Surge by 61.6%

Data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance shows that in August 2024, Japan’s semiconductor equipment exports to China surged by 61.6%, reaching 179.9 billion yen (around $1.29 billion).

The total weight of equipment exported from Japan to China in August was 6,742 tons, a 41% increase compared to the previous month. Machinery accounted for 23.2% of Japan’s total exports to China, with semiconductor equipment making up 11.9%.

These figures underscore Japan’s critical role in the global semiconductor supply chain.

Additionally, ASML, the Dutch photolithography giant, previously reported that its exports to China grew by 21% quarter-on-quarter in Q2 2024, reaching 2.3 billion euros. Earlier data showed that Asia accounted for 84% of ASML’s 2023 revenue.

(Photo credit: istock)

In recent years, the U.S., Japan and the Netherlands, have increasingly expanding restrictions on China in semiconductor technology. South Korea, on the other hand, has been cautiously responding to U.S. demands due to its significant dependence on the Chinese market.

Yet, according to a report by South Korean media outlet The Korea Herald, the U.S. is increasing pressure on South Korea to comply with its export controls to China.

At the Korea-U.S. Economic Security Conference 2024 held in Washington, D.C. on September 10th, U.S. Commerce Department Undersecretary Alan Estevez called on South Korea’s two leading HBM manufacturers, Samsung and SK hynix, to align with U.S. export controls on China. He urged that their production capacity be reserved for supplying advanced chips to allied nations, rather than competitors such as China.

Estevez emphasized his appreciation for South Korea’s long-standing cooperation with the U.S., but pointed out that since AI can be used for military purposes, it is crucial to prevent China from acquiring advanced chips to train AI models.

South Korea’s Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo responded that while they will discuss the matter with the U.S., export controls have a significant impact on South Korea’s businesses and economy.

Some industry sources cited by The Korea Herald have further pointed out that the direct export volume of chips from Samsung and SK hynix to China is not significant, so the actual impact may be limited.

However, per a previous Reuters report cited sources, it’s indicated that about 30% of Samsung’s HBM chip sales in the first half of this year were to China.

The Korea Institute for Industrial Economics and Trade noted that, unlike Japan and the Netherlands, South Korea cannot fully align with U.S. export control measures due to its significant reliance on exports to China.

Per the Chosun Daily citing data from South Korea’s Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy and the Korea International Trade Association, it’s shown that in July of this year, South Korea’s exports to China increased by 14.9% year-on-year to USD 11.4 billion, the highest since October 2022. Notably, memory exports surged 89% year-on-year to USD 6.8 billion.

Semiconductor exports saw particularly strong growth, with chip exports rising 49% year-on-year. In June this year, Korea’s memory exports also amounted to USD 8.8 billion, accounting for 65.8% of total semiconductor exports, which reportedly represents the highest proportion in two years since December 2021.

These figures reflect South Korea’s robust performance in the chip sector and the strong demand from the Chinese market for Korean semiconductors and other ICT products.

Meanwhile, due to the U.S.’s strict restrictions on chip manufacturing technology, China is striving for breakthroughs in the HBM field.

The HBM market is currently dominated by South Korea’s SK hynix, Samsung Electronics, and the U.S.’s Micron, all of which are producing the latest standard HBM3 chips.

However, a report from Tom’s Hardware, citing industry sources, has indicated that Chinese companies, including CXMT, have made progress in developing HBM and are in the early stages of production. Huawei is also collaborating with other Chinese companies, with plans to produce HBM2 chips by 2026.

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• [News] ChangXin Memory Technologies in China Has Reportedly Begun Mass Production of HBM2
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(Photo credit: Samsung)

To counter the U.S.’s ongoing semiconductor restrictions launched the U.S., China has outspent the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan combined on chip manufacturing equipment in the first half of this year.

However, sources cited by a report from Commercial Times have warned that China’s excessive investment could soon lead to global overcapacity issues in traditional chip production, which is similar to the oversupply problems seen in the electric vehicle and solar energy sectors in recent years.

Per the data cited by CNBC from the Semiconductor Equipment and Materials International (SEMI), China spent USD 24.73 billion on chip manufacturing equipment in the first half of 2024, surpassing the combined USD 23.68 billion spent by the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan during the same period. This surge in spending is driven by China’s efforts to achieve semiconductor self-sufficiency amid U.S.-China tensions.

The report further notes that since the U.S. implemented stricter export restrictions in October 2022, Chinese companies have been rapidly accelerating their procurement. SEMI data suggests that China’s total procurement this year is expected to exceed USD 35 billion.

Citing Clark Tseng, Senior Director at SEMI, the report indicated that the current equipment stockpiling trend may continue into the second half of this year and is expected to ease only by 2025 as companies work to absorb excess capacity.

Citing Alex Capri, a Senior Lecturer at the National University of Singapore and Research Fellow at the Hinrich Foundation, CNBC pointed out that Chinese companies are preemptively stockpiling chip manufacturing equipment in response to the risk of further export restrictions from Washington before the U.S. presidential election.

Capri highlighted that as China is making smooth progress in traditional chip production, the world might soon face an oversupply of traditional chips, similar to the overcapacity issues seen in electric vehicles and solar panels.

As a result, companies outside China could struggle to compete in the sector with lower-priced products from Chinese companies.

A previous report from Bloomberg pointed out that China has thus become the largest market by revenue for top global chip equipment suppliers. The latest quarterly financial reports from companies such as Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA show that China contributes approximately 40% of their revenue.

For Japanese company TEL and Dutch company ASML, the contribution from the Chinese market is even more significant, with nearly half of their revenue coming from China.

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• [News] China’s 1H24 Chip Equipment Purchases Exceed Taiwan, Korea, and US Combined, Reaching USD 25 Billion
• [News] China’s Import of Chip Making Equipment Hit New High This Year, with Mature Nodes Driving the Demand

(Photo credit: SMIC)

SK hynix President Justin Kim shared insights on SK hynix’s current memory products and HBM-related offerings in a speech titled “Unleashing the Possibilities of AI Memory Technology.” Per a report from TechNews, he announced at Semicon Taiwan that the company would begin mass production of 12-stack HBM3e by the end of this month, marking a pivotal moment in the HBM battlefield.

He also stated that AI development is only at its first stage, with future growth expected to reach a fifth stage, where AI will interact with humans through intellect and emotion. Kim outlined AI’s key challenges, including power, heat dissipation, and memory bandwidth requirements.

The biggest challenge currently, according to Kim, is power shortages, with data centers expected to need twice the power they do now. Relying solely on renewable energy will not meet this demand, and increased power use will also generate more heat, requiring more efficient heat dissipation solutions.

Thus, SK hynix is working on AI memory that is more energy-efficient, lower in power consumption, and has greater capacity, while also offering solutions tailored to different applications.

Kim then shared the latest progress on HBM3e, noting that SK Hynix was the first supplier to produce 8-layer HBM3e and will begin mass production of 12-layer HBM3e by the end of the month. Additionally, SK Hynix introduced its latest products in DIMM, enterprise SSDs (QLC eSSD), LPDDR5T, LPDDR6, and GDDR7 as well.

Regarding technology development, Kim highlighted that HBM4 will be the first product based on a base die, combining SK hynix’s advanced HBM technology with TSMC’s cutting-edge manufacturing to achieve unparalleled performance. Mass production schedules will be aligned with customer demands.

On a global scale, Kim announced the establishment of a new facility in Yongin, South Korea, with plans to begin mass production in 2027, positioning Yongin as one of the largest and most advanced semiconductor hubs.

Moreover, SK hynix will invest in Indiana, USA, expected to start operations at a new plant in 2028, focusing on advanced HBM packaging.

Eventually, Kim stated that SK hynix will concentrate on AI business, looking to build AI infrastructure with SK Group. This includes integrating power, software, glass substrates, and immersion cooling technology, and working to become a core player in the ecosystem, overcoming challenges with partners to achieve goals in the AI era.

Read more

• [News] SK hynix Secures up to USD 450 Million Funding for Indiana Packaging Facility under CHIPS Act
• [News] SK Hynix President to Join Semicon Taiwan, Bolstering HBM Partnership with TSMC and NVIDIA

Per Korean media theElec on August 19, Samsung Electronics is considering outsourcing part of its Micro LED display production to a third party including China-based MTC.

According to industry sources cited by Korean media, Samsung is currently evaluating the possibility of outsourcing production due to cost considerations, particularly for the low-end Micro LED display targeting markets like India and the Middle East.

Industry sources further reveal that the proportion of outsourced orders is expected to account for 20-30% of Samsung’s total Micro LED display products.

It’s reported that Samsung mainly provides Micro LED display for residential and commercial applications. In TV market, Samsung purchased Micro LED chips from San’an and PlayNitride.

After these chips are placed on substrate, transferred and packaged, Samsung directly handles other processes. For low-end products, the majority of current Micro LED production is done by itself, with only a small portion outsourced.

Technically, Samsung’s latest Micro LED TV uses LTPS TFT (Low-Temperature Polycrystalline Silicon Thin-Film Transistor) technology, while its commercial Micro LED display is still based on PCB technology.

The report suggested that if Samsung outsources the production of commercial Micro LED modules to manufacturers like MTC, they would assemble them for Samsung using PCBA (Printed Circuit Board Assembly) methods.

Given that companies like MTC in China have improved their Micro LED module technology, Samsung believes there is no significant difference between outsourcing production and completing the related module processes in-house.

Moreover, it could reduce production cost. If cooperates with MTC, Samsung expects Micro LED production cost to potentially decrease by 5-10%.

Besides cost reduction, Korean media point out that Samsung’s consideration of outsourcing low-end product production could allow it to focus on Micro LED module bonding and seamless technology, which are closely related to semiconductor manufacturing processes.

Industry sources highlight that the bonding and seamless technology of Micro LED modules are more critical, as these processes determine the final quality of Micro LED, despite the highly overlapping supply chains of Micro LED chips among manufacturers.

In fact, Samsung’s plan to reduce Micro LED cost has long been an open secret within the industry. As per Korean media reports in July, Samsung has already initiated its cost reduction plan and is currently working with relevant partners to push this project forward.

However, it’s worth noting that the potential partner mentioned by Korean media is BMTC. According to information from LEDinside, MTC’s LED business includes two downstream subsidiaries: VMTC and BMTC.

The former focuses on COB fine-pitch display business, while the latter on SMD LED packaging, backlighting, and lighting. If Samsung were to collaborate with MTC on Micro LED manufacturing, the corresponding products would theoretically be VMTC’s COB modules.

Currently, no official confirmation is disclosed, and the actual situation remains to be verified.

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(Photo credit: Samsung)