China’s penetration rate of new energy vehicles (NEVs) exceeded 40% for the first time in November this year, reaching 40.4% in domestic retail sales, a 4 percentage point increase from the same period last year. Optimistic growth is anticipated by 2024, with wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles expected to reach 11 million units.

The China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) released the latest data, forecasting that the total sales of passenger vehicles in China in November 2023 will reach 25.5 million units. With a huge increase of the 3.2 million units exported in 2017, the overall sales of passenger vehicles are set to significantly surpass the wholesale volume of 24.5 million units in 2017, reaching a historic high.

It is evident that NEVs in China are seen as a catalyst for the next wave of economic momentum. According to a report by the BJNews, Cui Dongshu, the Secretary General of CPCA, stated that the Chinese domestic retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles in November was 40.4%, a 4 percentage point increase from the 36% penetration rate of the same period last year.

This marks China’s first-ever monthly penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles exceeding 40%. As a key driver of growth in the Chinese passenger vehicle market, the retail sales of NEVs in November increased by nearly 40%, reaching 841,000 units with an 8.9% MoM growth.

In the first 11 months of this year, China’s cumulative retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached 6.809 million units, a YoY increase of 35.2%. CPCA believes that the growth outlook for the new energy passenger vehicle market in 2024 is relatively optimistic, with wholesale sales expected to reach 11 million units, a net increase of 2.3 million units, a 22% YoY increase, and a penetration rate of 40%.

Chinese brands in the NEV sector are gradually expanding their market influence through multifaceted development in technology and sales strategies. According to CPCA statistics, in November, 18 companies saw wholesale sales exceed 10,000 units, accounting for 88.9% of the total new energy passenger vehicle volume. BYD continued to lead the rankings with a monthly sales volume of about 301,400 units, followed closely by Tesla China with 82,400 units. The export of Chinese brand new energy passenger vehicles also showed significant growth, with A0-class electric vehicles accounting for nearly 60% and becoming the absolute mainstay of exports.

(Image: BYD)

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Honda, the Japanese automotive giant, is set to lay off around 900 employees from its Chinese joint venture, GAC Honda. This move comes as the company adjusts to the shifting market focus towards electric vehicles (EVs). Notably, this marks the first instance of job cuts in the 25-year collaboration between Honda and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co., Ltd. (GAC).

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Independent Brands in China Ascend but Japanese and Chinese Joint Ventures Decline

As per GAC Honda’s released data, the cumulative production and sales figures for the first ten months of 2023 witnessed a significant drop of 20.52% and 21.55%, totaling 520,500 and 499,400 vehicles, respectively. Apart from GAC Honda, both GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota have embarked on plans to scale back production or streamline personnel. Mitsubishi Motors announced officially to exit the Chinese market in October 2023, with GAC Aion taking over its factory.

Despite efforts by Japanese automakers to catch up EV revolution, the competition from independent brands remains formidable. GAC Honda and Dongfeng Honda introduced pure electric models like e:NP1 and e:NS1 in the Chinese market. GAC Toyota and FAW Toyota also entered the EV market with models like bZ3 and bZ4X.

However, facing intense competition from independent brands, joint ventures struggle to maintain market share. According to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA) data, independent brands claimed 60% of the market share in October 2023, while joint venture brands dropped below 40%. This is a stark contrast to two years ago when independent brands held only 41.2% of the market.

Constrained by the cautious approach of Japanese automakers to vehicle electrification, joint ventures lack a robust lineup of pure electric models, relying mainly on hybrid models. Despite the hybrid technology’s strength in Japanese automakers, they are gradually losing ground to independent brands like Geely and BYD, resulting in a steady decline in joint venture brands’ market share.

2. Japanese Automakers Urged to Collaborate Openly with Chinese Counterparts

The hybrid models and brand strength of Japanese automakers continue to command a presence in the market, due to current challenges such as EV high prices and range anxiety. However, in the mature Chinese market for pure electric vehicles, Japanese automakers must cede more control over the development of joint venture models to Chinese manufacturers. An example of successful collaboration is Dongfeng Nissan’s Venucia, which is based on Dongfeng Motor’s technology, blending Chinese manufacturers’ expertise with Japanese automakers’ brand strength.

Japanese joint venture brands face challenges, highlighting the necessity for innovative advancements in model technology amid the new energy vehicle era. Faced with the trend towards higher intelligence and electrification in new energy vehicles, Japanese automakers must recognize that their current priority is not to surpass Chinese manufacturers but to navigate the electrification wave successfully. Joint venture brands act as a crucial lifeline, and Japanese automakers can bridge the technological gap by leveraging joint venture platforms, utilizing resources from Chinese manufacturers, and fostering collaboration. The key lies in Japanese automakers transitioning from market development leaders to active learners.

This year, BYD, a notable figure in the global automotive market, has recently faced a downturn. The extensive price reductions initiated on November 24th have raised concerns, as it is perceived to contradict the company’s earlier commitment to avoid participating in price wars. BYD is now under pressure to intensify its efforts to reach its annual sales target of 3 million vehicles.

According to multiple reports from Chinese media on November 25th, in an attempt to overcome this challenging situation, BYD has been taking frequent actions. Following a wave of promotional activities in early November, on 24th, dealers reportedly implemented large-scale price reductions, expanding cash discounts to various models such as Qin, Han, Tang, and Song, ranging from CNY 3,000 to 10,000.

The discounts on models like Qin PLUS DM-i and Qin PLUS EV are particularly significant, reaching up to CNY 10,000, with the starting price of Qin PLUS DM-i dropping to CNY 89,800.

BYD Chairman Wang Chuanfu emphasized at the end of August that he was confident in achieving the annual sales target of 3 million vehicles and would not engage in intense price wars within the industry.

The recent measures of BYD, involving two price reductions within a month, have sparked discussions. BYD stated on November 25th that this promotion is limited to the month and is not an official price reduction activity. Its purpose is to accelerate the transition from gasoline-powered cars to electric vehicles.

The market is closely watching whether BYD can achieve its annual target. BYD’s official Weibo account stated on November 24th that it took just over three months to go from 5 million to 6 million units of EVs, marking another milestone. Moreover, in October, the sales of new energy vehicles exceeded 300,000 vehicles for the first time, setting a new monthly record.

However, while BYD’s monthly sales continue to grow, the year-to-date sales growth has significantly declined. In the next two months, BYD’s sales still need to climb above the 300,000 mark to achieve the 3 million annual target. Industry insiders suggest that BYD’s recent price reductions may boost its sales target but are also expected to intensify market price competition.

In addition, BYD faces threats from local competitors. Recently, various forces in the Chinese auto market have made significant deployments. The Huawei Luxeed S7 is set to be launched on November 28, and Huawei showcased a video on the 24th demonstrating the autonomous parking function of the Luxeed S7, highlighting its powerful technological capabilities.

Furthermore, Xiaomi’s progress in the car manufacturing sector continues to advance, with its new car expected to debut in the first quarter of 2024. The competition in the Chinese new energy vehicle market is, without a doubt, increasing.

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In May 2023, Hyundai announced a local investment of KRW 2 trillion (approximately USD 1.52 billion) to establish an EV factory in South Korea, with a groundbreaking ceremony held on November 13. The factory is expected to be completed in 2025, with electric vehicle production set to commence in the first quarter of 2026.

The initial production capacity is planned at 200,000 vehicles per year, focusing on electric SUVs under Hyundai’s premium brand, Genesis.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. IONIQ 5’s High Cost-Performance Welcomed in the North American Market, Serving as a Pillar for Hyundai’s Electric Vehicle Endeavors

The IONIQ 5, built on Hyundai’s E-GMP platform, boasts an 800V charging infrastructure and a 3.5-second acceleration from 0 to 100 km/h, all priced around USD 40,000. In comparison to other 800V competitors in the North American market, such as the Audi e-tron GT, Lucid Air, and Taycan, which are priced at approximately USD 80,000 to 100,000, the IONIQ 5 stands out with competitive features.

South Korea demonstrates a significant level of self-sufficiency in the strategic components of electric vehicles. Battery suppliers Samsung SDI and LG Energy Solution (LGES) rank among the world’s top ten battery suppliers.

Additionally, Hyundai Mobis stands as South Korea’s largest automotive parts supplier, offering a comprehensive product line that includes various components in electric motors and controls. With robust support from a powerful supply chain, this enhances Hyundai’s market competitiveness.

According to Hyundai North America’s reported sales figures for August 2023, the IONIQ 5 and IONIQ 6, both built on the E-GMP platform, collectively sold 5,235 units in the North American market. This reflects a remarkable 245% growth compared to the same period in 2022.

The year-to-date total sales of the IONIQ 5 and 6 reached 28,000 units by August, showing a notable 63% growth compared to the same period last year. It’s noteworthy that these achievements were made without the benefit of the USD 7,500 subsidy under the “Inflation Reduction Act.”

The success of the IONIQ series has bolstered Hyundai’s confidence in making this platform a core element, facilitating the development of related models and further investments in the electric vehicle business.

2. IONIQ Temporarily Pauses Entry into Chinese Market Amidst Intense Homogeneous Product Competition

With the rise of local Chinese automotive brands and the trend toward electrification, Hyundai’s sales in the Chinese market have plummeted from 1.14 million vehicles in 2016 to 250,000 vehicles in 2022, as per data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers.

In 2021, Hyundai sold its first factory in Shunyi to Li Auto, and in June 2023, Hyundai announced plans to sell two more of its remaining four plants.

In the electric vehicle sector, the IONIQ 5 is built on an all-new electric vehicle platform, outperforming earlier models based on oil-to-electric conversion platforms in both overall efficiency and performance. With its affordable price, it presents a formidable challenge to equivalent models in Europe and the United States.

However, given China’s early development of new energy vehicle platforms and the completion of pure electric vehicle platforms by many domestic manufacturers, coupled with highly autonomous supply chains, IONIQ does not enjoy overwhelming advantages in China. Therefore, the initial focus on the European and American markets is a strategically sound decision.

As European and American automakers continue to establish pure electric vehicle platforms and competitors like Audi and Stellantis strengthen their technological exchanges with Chinese manufacturers, the advantages of the E-GMP platform will face challenges. To further enhance the economic scale of their products, the Chinese market remains a crucial challenge that Hyundai cannot ignore.

Xiaomi’s venture into automotive industry takes a significant stride as the company’s latest models, SU7 and SU7 Max, makes its debut in the latest catalog from China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. The listed entity is Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd. (BAIC), marked by the distinctive “Beijing Xiaomi” emblem on the rear.

Sources from Xiaomi’s car supply chain suggest an imminent small-scale trial production phase, hinting at the first model’s market introduction in February 2024, reported by UDN News.

As per the disclosure, the cars boast a 3,000mm wheelbase. SU7 will feature Fdbatt’s lithium iron phosphate batteries, and SU7 Max is complemented by CATL’s ternary lithium batteries. Interestingly, the smart driving features will not include an optional optical radar package.

The catalog showed Xiaomi’s car brand as Xiaomi, while the declared corporate entity is Beijing Automotive Group Off-Road Vehicle Co., Ltd. (BAIC ORV). The product’s rear proudly displays “Beijing Xiaomi.”

Despite leveraging BAIC’s production qualifications, Xiaomi’s car has its declared production address at the site of its self-established factory.

The car factory’s construction unfolds in two phases, with the first, covering approximately 720,000 square meters, achieving an annual capacity of 150,000 vehicles by June 2023. The second phase is slated to commence in 2024, concluding in 2025. Public records confirm the successful acceptance inspection of Xiaomi’s car first phase factory workshops on June 12.

Xiaomi Group Chairman Jun Lei’s October announcement highlighted smooth progress, anticipating an official launch in the first half of 2024.

Since Lei’s announcement of Xiaomi’s foray into smart cars, industry observers have closely monitored Xiaomi’s car dynamics. Internal sources reveal that Xiaomi’s car will leverage ICT industry experience to enhance operational efficiency across research, production, supply, and sales.

Xiaomi plans a US$10 billion investment in the automotive sector over the next decade. Operating in a wholly-owned model, Xiaomi aims to provide users with a comprehensive smart ecosystem and enrich their smart living experiences.

At the October Xiaomi product launch, the introduction of the HyperOS was a highlight, applicable not only to mobile devices but also set to feature in Xiaomi’s cars.

A notable addition revealed by National Business Daily, citing a supplier who visited Xiaomi’s car factory, is that the four major manufacturing process production lines (stamping, welding, painting, and final assembly) in Xiaomi’s car first phase factory are operational, engaging in small-scale trial production. With mass production scheduled to commence in December, Xiaomi’s car is poised for market launch in February next year.

(Image: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)