Apple has delayed the production schedule for the Apple Car from 2026 to 2028, as reported by Bloomberg. The vehicle is expected to feature a Level 2+ advanced driver assistance system.

TrendForce’s Insights:

• Aim for Fully Autonomous Driving: Apple Car Once Planned to Remove the Steering Wheel

Apple has named its project for the Apple Car “Titan”. The initial concept envisioned a fully electric vehicle without a steering wheel, potentially achieving Autonomous Driving Level 5.

The delineation of autonomous driving levels places Level 3 as a watershed: vehicles below this level still require driver control (by eyes and hands), with the system providing assistance.

Vehicles at Level 3 and above gradually empower the system to assume greater control, gradually freeing the driver’s hands and eyes. Therefore, only vehicles beyond Level 3 can be considered truly autonomous vehicle.

• Downgrading the Autonomous Driving Level: Apple’s Compromise with Market Realities

Having accomplished numerous revolutionary innovations in the consumer electronics realm, it’s understandable that Apple aims to replicate its successful model in the automotive industry. High-level autonomous driving represents a battleground where Apple can leverage its strengths.

However, with the complexity of vehicle components and the stricter validation standards for automotive regulations compared to commercial ones, Apple, if it intends to venture into car manufacturing, still needs to align with the technological development levels of other components.

For instance, to eliminate the steering wheel configuration, mature wire-controlled steering technology is necessary. However, among all car manufacturers currently, only Tesla, Toyota, and Infinity have adopted this technology, resulting in a relatively small market size.

Related component suppliers also are still in the process of research and development or observing the market. Even if suitable suppliers are found, the adoption of such advanced technology may raise the cost of car manufacturing.

Additionally, the trust between humans and machines has yet to mature, and related regulations are still under development. Achieving full confidence from drivers to take their hands and eyes off the steering wheel, even under the Apple brand, is not an easily achievable goal.

• Prioritizing Safety and Stability in Vehicle Design: Apple’s Compromise is the Right Decision

Given the direct impact on driver safety and the long product lifecycle, the automotive industry, whether traditional or electric vehicles, prioritizes safety and stability in design principles. Even with innovative technologies, their priority is secondary to safety and stability.

Designing an electric vehicle without a steering wheel is undoubtedly enticing, however, given the need for further validation in technology, regulations, and human-machine trust, the production timeline for Apple Car may continue to be delayed.

Additionally, the automotive industry adheres closely to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs theory. At this stage, the primary concerns for car manufacturers are not the presence of steering wheels or the level of autonomous driving but rather range anxiety and high car prices. These concerns belong to the “lower-level” needs of the demand pyramid, affecting the basic survival conditions of manufacturers.

Only by prioritizing the satisfaction of these types of needs can manufacturers proceed to fulfill higher-level demands for advanced autonomous driving.

If Apple Car’s project adjustments are indeed true, it represents a compromise with reality. However, it allows Apple to quickly introduce products to capture market share. After all, only by successfully achieving the goal of production from nothing to something can Apple have the opportunity to create a truly Apple-dominated battlefield.

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• [News] Rumors of Apple Car Possibly Using Micro LED, Could Spark an Automotive Revolution if True

The U.S. lawmakers is reportedly attempting to further drive the “decoupling” of the Pentagon’s supply chain from China. According to sources cited by Bloomberg, the U.S. Congress has prohibited the Pentagon from procuring batteries produced by six Chinese companies, including CATL and BYD.

Additionally, the other four battery manufacturers set to be banned are Envision Energy, EVE Energy, Gotion High-Tech, and Hithium Energy Storage Technology. Based on the report, of the top 10 battery suppliers in the world, just three are non-Chinese companies.

It is noted that this regulation is part of the “2024 National Defense Authorization Act,” passed on December 22, 2023. However, commercial purchases, such as Ford’s procurement of batteries from CATL in Michigan and Tesla’s sourcing of batteries from BYD, are temporarily exempt from these measures.

As per IJIWEI’s report, the U.S. government has long been eyeing the Chinese new energy vehicle supply chain. Previously, U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen argued that China’s new energy vehicle industry posed a threat to the “national security” of the United States.

At the end of 2023, a document was signed, stipulating that from 2024 onwards, all electric vehicles produced in the U.S. are prohibited from using Chinese batteries. The signing of this document is evidently unfavorable for companies in the electric vehicle battery industry looking to expand into the U.S. market.

According to the conditions for electric vehicle subsidies under the U.S. IRA Act, starting in 2024, the use of battery components produced by entities from “Foreign Entity of Concern” (FEOC) countries is prohibited. In 2025, the prohibition extends to the use of key minerals processed or recycled in FEOC countries. FEOC encompasses China, North Korea, Russia, and Iran.

The U.S. Department of Energy, in December 2023, released a notification of a proposed interpretive rule, requesting comments to define FEOC, covering overseas subsidiaries of Chinese companies and overseas enterprises with more than 25% ownership by Chinese state-owned enterprises.

However, given the current distribution of the battery supply chain, completely bypassing the Chinese battery supply chain in the U.S. is challenging. Even if feasible, it would come with substantial costs. The result could be a short-term inability to reduce vehicle prices, further impacting the gradually weakening demand for electric vehicles in the United States.

TrendForce indicates that the combined sales of BEVs and PHEVs in the United States totaled approximately 1.46 million vehicles in 2023. Due to the requirement that many vehicles must meet local assembly criteria in the U.S. to qualify for subsidies, numerous models lost subsidies in 2023.

It is expected that in 2024, various automakers will increase the proportion of local assembly, expanding consumer options to stimulate demand. However, stringent conditions for battery adoption could become one of the variables affecting the growth of electric vehicle sales in the United States.

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• China Projected to Export 1.2 Million NEVs in 2023 amid Tightening Tariffs by the US, Says TrendForce
• [News] China’s New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate Exceeds 40%, Expected Optimistic Growth by 2024

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

In a bid to compete with rivals like Tesla, who conduct in-house research and development of advanced chips for automotive applications, Japanese automakers have reportedly established a new organization to collaboratively research and develop advanced automotive chips, integrating their technologies and designs.

According to a report by Nikkei, automakers including Toyota have established a new organization called the “Automotive SoC Research Association” (temporarily referred as ASRA), joining forces to develop advanced chips for applications like autonomous driving.

Established in December in Nagoya, ASRA is set to commence research on SoC products with a process of 10nm or more advanced nodes starting in 2024. In addition to Toyota, other automakers such as Nissan, Honda, Mazda, Subaru, and Japanese enterprises including Renesas Electronics and Socionext have also joined the initiative.

According to the report, the trend of automakers intensifying in-house development of automotive chips is growing. The report further indicates that semiconductor giants in the United States, such as NVIDIA and Qualcomm, are also developing high-performance SoCs for automotive use.

Leading electric vehicle manufacturer Tesla has opted for in-house development due to dissatisfaction with limited choices, and their self-developed SoCs are already actively deployed in their vehicles.

On the other hand, Chinese automaker NIO, for example, possesses semiconductor research and development teams in both China and the United States. They have successfully developed semiconductor products used for controlling Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) technology.

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

In the episode of CCTV’s “Face to Face” program aired on the evening of December 17, Xiaomi Group’s founder and chairman, Lei Jun, was interviewed and discussed Xiaomi’s efforts in the high-end and automotive sectors.

Lei Jun told reporters that he believes Xiaomi has many natural advantages in entering the automotive industry. He emphasized that the essence of smart electric vehicles today lies in the integration of the automotive and consumer electronics industries, constituting a significant convergence. Therefore, entering the automotive sector poses challenges for Xiaomi, but overall, the difficulty is manageable.

Lei Jun mentioned that three years ago, he thought making cars was a challenging endeavor. After conducting user research, they established the principle of adhering to conventions while introducing surprises: fully respecting the norms of the automotive industry, using mature industry technologies to ensure the quality of the first car, and innovating within this overarching framework.

Lei Jun stated, “For our first car, we’ve invested more than 3,400 engineers, and the entire research and development expenditure has exceeded RMB 10 billion. We’ve used more than ten times the investment. With this level of confidence, I approached it with a ‘must-win’ attitude.”

When discussing expectations for the first car, Lei Jun mentioned that there is definitely an expectation, but he acknowledges the complexity of the automotive industry. He expressed concerns, particularly fearing that the car might not gain immediate popularity, and people may not buy it initially.

However, he is even more worried that if everyone rushes to buy, there might be a wait of one or two years, which would undoubtedly lead to severe criticism.

Previous reports indicated that Xiaomi’s inaugural car aims to deliver 300 units in December, with preparations currently in progress for exhibition vehicles.

Earlier on December 12, information about Xiaomi’s car model SU7 battery appeared in the latest catalog of new energy vehicle models exempt from vehicle purchase tax released by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology.

The information shows that Xiaomi’s car model SU7 has two battery versions with capacities of 101kWh and 73.6kWh, respectively. Depending on the specific model, the corresponding CLTC (China Light-Duty Vehicle Test Cycle) range for the 101kWh version is 800km and 750km, while for the 73.6kWh version, it is 668km and 628km.

(Photo credit: China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology)

On December 13th, the Ministry of Trade, Industry, and Energy (MOTIE) of South Korea held a ceremony to celebrate the establishment of the public-private Mobility Charging Industry Convergence Alliance. During the ceremony, the South Korean government announced measures aimed at promoting the electric vehicle (EV) charging industry and providing support to charging station operators.

According to a news report from Businesskorea, the South Korean government revealed a target of capturing a 10% global market share for chargers made by Korean companies by 2030, a significant leap from the current 1%.

The South Korean government aims to acquire five key technologies by 2030 in the field of EV charging market. These include ultra-fast charging, wireless charging, charging robots, intelligent charging, and cybersecurity software for charging stations.

The ultimate objective is to foster the growth of at least five domestic charging pile manufacturers with a combined annual revenue exceeding KRW 50 billion (approximately USD 38.66 million). Additionally, the government wants to significantly increase South Korea’s global market share in the EV charging market from 1.2% last year to 10% by 2030.

To achieve this policy objective, MOTIE has established the public-private Mobility Charging Industry Convergence Alliance. This alliance consists of more than 40 companies and 20 organizations, encompassing charging pile manufacturers, component suppliers, charging service operators, as well as testing and certification organizations.

TrendForce anticipates that by 2026, the global tally of public charging stations will soar to 16 million, marking an impressive threefold increase from 2023 figure. Alongside this growth, the global ownership of new energy vehicles (NEVs), which include plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) and battery-electric vehicles (BEVs), is projected to surge to 96 million. This will result in a vehicle-to-charger ratio of 6:1, a significant decrease from the 10:1 ratio observed in 2021.

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

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• Driven by Global Government Initiatives: A Surge in Public Charging Piles Expected—16 Million by 2026, Tripling 2023 Figures, Says TrendForce