AMD announced the Ryzen 8040 series processor at the AMD Advance AI event. With TSMC’s advanced 4nm process, this new processor boasts up to a 1.6x improvement in AI processing performance compared to its predecessor.

From AMD’s press release, the Ryzen 8040 series introduces the Ryzen AI Network Processing Unit (NPU), featuring up to 8 Zen 4 CPU cores and an integrated GPU based on RDNA 3. Utilizing TSMC’s 4nm process, AMD claims that the Ryzen 8040 series NPU is approximately 1.4x faster than the NPU in the previous 7040 series and 1.8x faster than Intel’s high-end i9-13900H Processor.

AMD CEO, Lisa Su, stated that AMD is the first global entity to integrate an NPU into an x86 processor. The Ryzen 8040 series is already in supply and is set to be featured in new models from major players such as Dell, HP, Acer, Asus, and Lenovo starting early 2024.

In fact, the integration of NPUs into Windows PCs is not a new thing. Both AMD and Intel lag behind Qualcomm. Back in October 2022, Qualcomm had already revealed its collaboration with on the development of the Microsoft SQ3 processor, set to be used in the Surface Pro 9 5G tablet, reported by ANUE.

While AMD and Intel compete, Apple is also a formidable player in the AI field. Since the introduction of the A11 Bionic in 2017, Apple has been integrating the neural engine into its hardware to accelerate AI tasks, similar to the NPUs developed by AMD and Intel, aiding in facial recognition and photo processing.

(Image: AMD)

The global laptop and PC market is gradually recovering, coupled with the rising trend of AIPC. Laptop brands, including Acer and ASUS, as well as major contract manufacturers like Foxconn and Quanta, have all released positive outlooks for 2024.

Semiconductor giants such as Intel, NVIDIA, AMD, Qualcomm, and others actively entered the AI PC chip market in the second half of 2023, positioning themselves strategically. Both laptop brands and terminal manufacturers have expressed expectations for this development.

Acer

Jason Chen, Chairman and CEO of Taiwan-based computer manufacturer Acer, stated on November 30th that they are currently tallying the sales performance of Acer during Black Friday and Cyber Monday, and the current results are satisfactory. Looking ahead to the PC industry next year, from an overall economic perspective, there are still many uncertain factors, but it appears to be better than this year.

Chen further pointed out that the impact of the pandemic has passed, inventory digestion has also concluded, and entering the traditional seasonal performance, the specific application of generative AI will bring a new wave of demand stimulation.

Regarding AI PCs, Chen emphasized that the transition to AI PCs will be a gradual process rather than a sudden occurrence. He anticipates this transformation will take place in both commercial and consumer markets in the future.

ASUS 

According to UDN’s report, ASUS, another major Taiwanese laptop manufacturer, emphasized the significance of AI PCs during its November investor conference. Co-CEO, S.Y. Hsu, highlighted that AI PCs represent a crucial turning point for the industry, promising a significant improvement in user experience and ushering in a new era for the PC industry.

While he acknowledged that consumer acceptance of AI PCs would take time to increase, he predicted that the penetration rate of AI PCs would reach single digits in 2024 and double digits in 2025, depending on the user experience and technological maturity of AI PCs next year.

Foxconn

For Taiwanese electronics contract manufacturer Foxconn, the outlook for the PC industry in the coming year is described as “very good” by Chiang Chih-Hsiung, General Manager of the B Group and Digital Health at Foxconn.

This indicates Foxconn’s positive expectations for performance in the PC-related industry. Foxconn had previously emphasized that, in addition to AI servers, it would collaborate with customers to expand its presence in the AI PC sector in 2024.

Quanta

In a public interview on November 30th, Chairman Barry Lam of Taiwanese electronics manufacturer Quanta discussed the overall outlook for the next year, emphasizing the role of generative AI in shaping future technological developments.

With the rapid growth in AI computing power demand, the market conditions for next year are quite optimistic. Lin is particularly bullish on the future prospects of three major products: AI PC, AI servers, and AI automotive electronics, with a special emphasis on the significant growth potential of AI PCs.

Quanta is optimistic about the growth momentum in this sector, especially with Microsoft set to launch the latest Windows featuring AI functions next summer. Quanta envisions continued collaboration with GPT in the future for PCs.

TrendForce’s Insight

TrendForce reports the global shipment of notebooks is expected to reach 167 million units in 2023—a YoY decrease of 10.2%. However, with inventory pressures easing, the notebook market is anticipated to return to a balanced supply and demand cycle in 2024. Overall shipment volume is forecast to reach 172 million units, marking a YoY increase of 3.2%.

As for AI PC, TrendForce believes that due to the high costs of upgrading both software and hardware, early development will be focused on high-end business users and content creators. This targeted group has a strong demand for leveraging AI processing capabilities to improve productivity efficiency and can also benefit immediately from related applications, making them the first-generation primary users.

The emergence of AI PCs is not expected to necessarily stimulate additional PC purchase demand. Instead, most upgrades to AI PC devices will occur naturally as part of the business equipment replacement cycle projected for 2024.

Nevertheless, looking to the long term, the potential development of more diverse AI tools—along with a price reduction—may still lead to a higher adoption rate of consumer AI PCs.

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• Key Development Period for AI PCs in 2024; Global Notebook Market Set to Rebound to Healthy Supply-Demand Cycle with an Estimated Growth Rate of 3.2%, Says TrendForce

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

TrendForce’s late-November panel price update indicates an ongoing decrease in TV panel prices, influenced by subdued demand and ongoing negotiations. In contrast, prices for mainstream-sized MNT and NB panels remain steady.

• TV Panel

Entering the fourth quarter, TV panel shipments have noticeably weakened, with continuous price negotiations between buyers and sellers. Major TV brands have been consistently adjusting order demands since the latter half of the third quarter.

Faced with sluggish demand, panel manufacturers are attempting to slow down the decline in panel prices by expanding the scale of production cuts. The expected decline in TV panel prices for the entire month of November is anticipated to be comparable to the early estimates of the month.

Specifically, 32″, 43″, 50″, and 55″ panels are expected to decrease by USD 2 dollars, while 65″ and 75″ panels are expected to decrease by USD 3 dollars, and 85″ panels are expected to decrease by USD 5 dollars by the end of this month.

• MNT Panel

Entering the fourth quarter, there is a noticeable decline in demand for MNT panels. Some brand customers are beginning to request a reduction in panel prices. However, panel manufacturers are attempting to alleviate the overall price pressure by adjusting product combinations.

Mainstream specification panel prices are holding steady, with a slight decrease in prices for high-end specification panels.

It is anticipated that the prices of mainstream-sized MNT panels will remain stable in November, while larger-sized high-end models may experience a potential decline.

• NB Panel

Entering the fourth quarter, there is a sustained weakening in demand for NB (Notebook) panels. There is a significant divergence in pricing perspectives between buyers and sellers.

Some brand customers believe that panel prices should start to decline, while panel manufacturers insist on maintaining stable prices. However, panel manufacturers are inclined to provide certain purchasing-scale customers with private concessions.

Therefore, it is expected that NB panel prices will remain stable in November at the current stage.

Read more

• [Insights] Early November Price Update: TV Panels Drop, Monitor and NB Panels Steady

In the dynamic wave of generative AI, AI PCs emerge as a focal point in the industry’s development. Technological upgrades across the industry chain and the distinctive features of on-device AI, such as security, low latency, and high reliability, drive their rapid evolution. AI PCs are poised to become a mainstream category within the PC market, converging with the PC replacement trend, reported by Jiwei.

On-Device AI, driven by technologies like lightweighting language large models (LLMs), signifies the next stage in AI development. PC makers aim to propel innovative upgrades in AI PC products by seamlessly integrating resources both upstream and downstream. The pivotal upgrade lies in the chip, with challenges in hardware-software coordination, data storage, and application development being inevitable. Nevertheless, AI PCs are on track to evolve at an unprecedented pace, transforming into a “hybrid” encompassing terminals, edge computing, and cloud technology.

Is AI PC Industry Savior?

In the face of consecutive quarters of global PC shipment decline, signs of a gradual easing in the downward trend are emerging. The industry cautiously anticipates a potential recovery, considering challenges such as structural demand cooling and supply imbalances.

Traditionally viewed as a mature industry grappling with long-term growth challenges, the PC industry is witnessing a shift due to the evolution of generative AI technology and the extension of the cloud to the edge. This combination of AI technology with terminal devices like PCs is seen as a trendsetter, with the ascent of AI PCs considered an “industry savior” that could open new avenues for growth in the PC market.

Yuanqing Yang, Chairman and CEO of Lenovo, elaborates on the stimulation of iterative computation and upgrades in AI-enabled terminals by AIGC. Recognizing the desire to enjoy the benefits of AIGC while safeguarding privacy, personal devices or home servers are deemed the safest. Lenovo is poised to invest approximately 7 billion RMB in the AI field over the next three years.

Analysis from Orient Securities, also known as DFZQ, reveals that the surge in consumer demand from the second half of 2020 to 2021 is expected to trigger a substantial PC replacement cycle from the second half of 2024 to 2025, initiating a new wave of PC upgrades.

Undoubtedly, AI PCs are set to usher in a transformative wave and accelerate development against the backdrop of the PC replacement trend. Guotai Junan Securities said that AI PCs feature processors with enhanced computing capabilities and incorporating multi-modal algorithms. This integration is anticipated to fundamentally reshape the PC experience, positioning AI PCs as a hybrid terminals, edge computing, and cloud technology to meet the new demands of generative AI workloads.

PC Ecosystem Players Strategically Positioning for Dominance

The AI PC field is experiencing vibrant development, with major PC ecosystem companies actively entering the scene. Companies such as Lenovo, Intel, Qualcomm, and Microsoft have introduced corresponding innovative initiatives. Lenovo showcased the industry’s first AI PC at the 2023 TechConnect World Innovation, Intel launched the AI PC Acceleration Program at its Innovation 2023, and Qualcomm introduced the Snapdragon X Elite processor specifically designed for AI at the Snapdragon Summit. Meanwhile, Microsoft is accelerating the optimization of office software, integrating Bing and ChatGPT into the Windows.

While current promotions of AI PC products may exceed actual user experiences, terminals displayed by Lenovo, Intel’s AI PC acceleration program, and the collaboration ecosystem deeply integrated with numerous independent software vendors (ISVs) indicate that the upgrade of on-device AI offers incomparable advantages compared to the cloud. This includes integrating the work habits of individual users, providing a personalized and differentiated user experience.

Ablikim Ablimiti, Vice President of Lenovo, highlighted five core features of AI PCs: possessing personal large models, natural language interaction, intelligent hybrid computing, open ecosystems, and ensuring real privacy and security. He stated that the encounter of AI large models with PCs is naturally harmonious, and terminal makers are leading this innovation by integrating upstream and downstream resources to provide a complete intelligent service for AI PCs.

In terms of chips, Intel Core Ultra is considered a significant processor architecture change in 40 years. It adopts the advanced Meteor Lake architecture, fully integrating chipset functions into the processor, incorporating NPU into the PC processor for the first time, and also integrating the dazzling series core graphics card. This signifies a significant milestone in the practical commercial application of AI PCs.

TrendForce: AI PC Demand to Expand from High-End Enterprises           

TrendForce believes that due to the high costs of upgrading both software and hardware associated with AI PCs, early development will be focused on high-end business users and content creators. This group has a strong demand for leveraging AI processing capabilities to improve productivity efficiency and can also benefit immediately from related applications, making them the primary users of the first generation. The emergence of AI PCs is not expected to necessarily stimulate additional PC purchase demand. Instead, most upgrades to AI PC devices will occur naturally as part of the business equipment replacement cycle projected for 2024.

(Image: Qualcomm)

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• Key Development Period for AI PCs in 2024; Global Notebook Market Set to Rebound to Healthy Supply-Demand Cycle with an Estimated Growth Rate of 3.2%, Says TrendForce
• [News] AI PCs and Smartphones on the Rise as Generative AI Expands to the Edge

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. With impressive performance metrics, this development is poised to shake up the PC processor market as Arm architecture gains ground, posing a substantial challenge to the established x86 architecture.

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. The launch of laptops featuring the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite is expected in mid-2024, marking an opportune moment for a “counteroffensive.”

TrendForce indicates that Arm architecture PC processors have secured around an 11% market share this year, primarily propped up by Apple’s laptop processors. Industry insiders reveal that, in light of the growth potential in the PC processor market, semiconductor giants are increasingly adopting ARM architecture to venture into the market.

2024 Sees Laptop Upgrade Surge, Desktop Market Shrinks                  

Statistics reveal that the surge in remote work during 2020 prompted a shift in consumer preferences from desktop computers to laptops. Moreover, the ongoing establishment of cloud platforms by businesses in 2021 and 2022 has generated positive momentum, signaling a shrinking desktop market and an expanding PC market.

AI-powered PCs and Windows 12 next year are expected to ride a fresh wave of upgrades in 2024. Therefore, when PCs featuring ARM architecture become widespread, Intel and AMD may not be predominantly affected in the laptop processor business based on the x86 architecture. Instead, the desktop processor segment could face the most significant impact.

Kedar Kondap, Qualcomm’s Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Compute and Games Division, foresees an upgrade wave fueled by AI PCs next year, with further growth anticipated in 2025. It is expected that consumers will lean towards AI PCs for their next computer purchases.

The initial wave of products equipped with Qualcomm’s AI PC processors has been unveiled, aligning with the upcoming wave of device upgrades in next year. While Intel is set to launch its first AI acceleration engine, the Intel Core Ultra, featuring integrated NPU in December, its Microsoft Windows 12 certification remains a point of observation.

In a broader perspective, Intel and AMD are positioned to follow up with the AI PC trend by 2025. This coincides with the ending service of Windows 10 and the gradual implementation of Wifi 7 and 6G technologies. By 2028, they are expected to play a pivotal role in driving AI PC growth.

On another note, a South Korean analyst anticipates that the growth momentum in AI PCs hinges on when Apple incorporates AI features into Mac computers.

ARM vs. x86, Microsoft’s Crucial Role                                    

This is because Microsoft is set to launch Windows 12 next year, featuring the built-in Copilot AI assistant. It will collaborate with operating systems and software such as Windows, Edge, Microsoft 365, Outlook, and the Bing search engine, ushering in an entirely new AI-driven user experience.

Several tech giants are fiercely competing in the AI PC market, with NVIDIA and AMD investing in the development of Arm architecture processors. It’s worth mentioning that in 2016, Microsoft agreed to let Qualcomm exclusively develop Windows-compatible chips, and this agreement is set to expire in 2024. Consequently, Qualcomm may gain a strategic advantage. In contrast, the collaboration between NVIDIA and MediaTek on Arm processors might only begin to bear fruit in 2025.

As for AMD’s foray into Arm architecture research and development, whether this indicates a less optimistic outlook for the x86 market is a matter for ongoing observation. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed that he isn’t concerned about Arm architecture processors vying in the PC market. From a different perspective, Intel may even consider assisting with manufacturing.

(Image: Qualcomm)