TrendForce’s late-November panel price update indicates an ongoing decrease in TV panel prices, influenced by subdued demand and ongoing negotiations. In contrast, prices for mainstream-sized MNT and NB panels remain steady.

• TV Panel

Entering the fourth quarter, TV panel shipments have noticeably weakened, with continuous price negotiations between buyers and sellers. Major TV brands have been consistently adjusting order demands since the latter half of the third quarter.

Faced with sluggish demand, panel manufacturers are attempting to slow down the decline in panel prices by expanding the scale of production cuts. The expected decline in TV panel prices for the entire month of November is anticipated to be comparable to the early estimates of the month.

Specifically, 32″, 43″, 50″, and 55″ panels are expected to decrease by USD 2 dollars, while 65″ and 75″ panels are expected to decrease by USD 3 dollars, and 85″ panels are expected to decrease by USD 5 dollars by the end of this month.

• MNT Panel

Entering the fourth quarter, there is a noticeable decline in demand for MNT panels. Some brand customers are beginning to request a reduction in panel prices. However, panel manufacturers are attempting to alleviate the overall price pressure by adjusting product combinations.

Mainstream specification panel prices are holding steady, with a slight decrease in prices for high-end specification panels.

It is anticipated that the prices of mainstream-sized MNT panels will remain stable in November, while larger-sized high-end models may experience a potential decline.

• NB Panel

Entering the fourth quarter, there is a sustained weakening in demand for NB (Notebook) panels. There is a significant divergence in pricing perspectives between buyers and sellers.

Some brand customers believe that panel prices should start to decline, while panel manufacturers insist on maintaining stable prices. However, panel manufacturers are inclined to provide certain purchasing-scale customers with private concessions.

Therefore, it is expected that NB panel prices will remain stable in November at the current stage.

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• [Insights] Early November Price Update: TV Panels Drop, Monitor and NB Panels Steady

In the dynamic wave of generative AI, AI PCs emerge as a focal point in the industry’s development. Technological upgrades across the industry chain and the distinctive features of on-device AI, such as security, low latency, and high reliability, drive their rapid evolution. AI PCs are poised to become a mainstream category within the PC market, converging with the PC replacement trend, reported by Jiwei.

On-Device AI, driven by technologies like lightweighting language large models (LLMs), signifies the next stage in AI development. PC makers aim to propel innovative upgrades in AI PC products by seamlessly integrating resources both upstream and downstream. The pivotal upgrade lies in the chip, with challenges in hardware-software coordination, data storage, and application development being inevitable. Nevertheless, AI PCs are on track to evolve at an unprecedented pace, transforming into a “hybrid” encompassing terminals, edge computing, and cloud technology.

Is AI PC Industry Savior?

In the face of consecutive quarters of global PC shipment decline, signs of a gradual easing in the downward trend are emerging. The industry cautiously anticipates a potential recovery, considering challenges such as structural demand cooling and supply imbalances.

Traditionally viewed as a mature industry grappling with long-term growth challenges, the PC industry is witnessing a shift due to the evolution of generative AI technology and the extension of the cloud to the edge. This combination of AI technology with terminal devices like PCs is seen as a trendsetter, with the ascent of AI PCs considered an “industry savior” that could open new avenues for growth in the PC market.

Yuanqing Yang, Chairman and CEO of Lenovo, elaborates on the stimulation of iterative computation and upgrades in AI-enabled terminals by AIGC. Recognizing the desire to enjoy the benefits of AIGC while safeguarding privacy, personal devices or home servers are deemed the safest. Lenovo is poised to invest approximately 7 billion RMB in the AI field over the next three years.

Analysis from Orient Securities, also known as DFZQ, reveals that the surge in consumer demand from the second half of 2020 to 2021 is expected to trigger a substantial PC replacement cycle from the second half of 2024 to 2025, initiating a new wave of PC upgrades.

Undoubtedly, AI PCs are set to usher in a transformative wave and accelerate development against the backdrop of the PC replacement trend. Guotai Junan Securities said that AI PCs feature processors with enhanced computing capabilities and incorporating multi-modal algorithms. This integration is anticipated to fundamentally reshape the PC experience, positioning AI PCs as a hybrid terminals, edge computing, and cloud technology to meet the new demands of generative AI workloads.

PC Ecosystem Players Strategically Positioning for Dominance

The AI PC field is experiencing vibrant development, with major PC ecosystem companies actively entering the scene. Companies such as Lenovo, Intel, Qualcomm, and Microsoft have introduced corresponding innovative initiatives. Lenovo showcased the industry’s first AI PC at the 2023 TechConnect World Innovation, Intel launched the AI PC Acceleration Program at its Innovation 2023, and Qualcomm introduced the Snapdragon X Elite processor specifically designed for AI at the Snapdragon Summit. Meanwhile, Microsoft is accelerating the optimization of office software, integrating Bing and ChatGPT into the Windows.

While current promotions of AI PC products may exceed actual user experiences, terminals displayed by Lenovo, Intel’s AI PC acceleration program, and the collaboration ecosystem deeply integrated with numerous independent software vendors (ISVs) indicate that the upgrade of on-device AI offers incomparable advantages compared to the cloud. This includes integrating the work habits of individual users, providing a personalized and differentiated user experience.

Ablikim Ablimiti, Vice President of Lenovo, highlighted five core features of AI PCs: possessing personal large models, natural language interaction, intelligent hybrid computing, open ecosystems, and ensuring real privacy and security. He stated that the encounter of AI large models with PCs is naturally harmonious, and terminal makers are leading this innovation by integrating upstream and downstream resources to provide a complete intelligent service for AI PCs.

In terms of chips, Intel Core Ultra is considered a significant processor architecture change in 40 years. It adopts the advanced Meteor Lake architecture, fully integrating chipset functions into the processor, incorporating NPU into the PC processor for the first time, and also integrating the dazzling series core graphics card. This signifies a significant milestone in the practical commercial application of AI PCs.

TrendForce: AI PC Demand to Expand from High-End Enterprises           

TrendForce believes that due to the high costs of upgrading both software and hardware associated with AI PCs, early development will be focused on high-end business users and content creators. This group has a strong demand for leveraging AI processing capabilities to improve productivity efficiency and can also benefit immediately from related applications, making them the primary users of the first generation. The emergence of AI PCs is not expected to necessarily stimulate additional PC purchase demand. Instead, most upgrades to AI PC devices will occur naturally as part of the business equipment replacement cycle projected for 2024.

(Image: Qualcomm)

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• Key Development Period for AI PCs in 2024; Global Notebook Market Set to Rebound to Healthy Supply-Demand Cycle with an Estimated Growth Rate of 3.2%, Says TrendForce
• [News] AI PCs and Smartphones on the Rise as Generative AI Expands to the Edge

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. With impressive performance metrics, this development is poised to shake up the PC processor market as Arm architecture gains ground, posing a substantial challenge to the established x86 architecture.

At this year’s Qualcomm Snapdragon Summit, the company announced its latest PC processor, the Snapdragon X Elite. The launch of laptops featuring the Qualcomm Snapdragon X Elite is expected in mid-2024, marking an opportune moment for a “counteroffensive.”

TrendForce indicates that Arm architecture PC processors have secured around an 11% market share this year, primarily propped up by Apple’s laptop processors. Industry insiders reveal that, in light of the growth potential in the PC processor market, semiconductor giants are increasingly adopting ARM architecture to venture into the market.

2024 Sees Laptop Upgrade Surge, Desktop Market Shrinks                  

Statistics reveal that the surge in remote work during 2020 prompted a shift in consumer preferences from desktop computers to laptops. Moreover, the ongoing establishment of cloud platforms by businesses in 2021 and 2022 has generated positive momentum, signaling a shrinking desktop market and an expanding PC market.

AI-powered PCs and Windows 12 next year are expected to ride a fresh wave of upgrades in 2024. Therefore, when PCs featuring ARM architecture become widespread, Intel and AMD may not be predominantly affected in the laptop processor business based on the x86 architecture. Instead, the desktop processor segment could face the most significant impact.

Kedar Kondap, Qualcomm’s Senior Vice President and General Manager of the Compute and Games Division, foresees an upgrade wave fueled by AI PCs next year, with further growth anticipated in 2025. It is expected that consumers will lean towards AI PCs for their next computer purchases.

The initial wave of products equipped with Qualcomm’s AI PC processors has been unveiled, aligning with the upcoming wave of device upgrades in next year. While Intel is set to launch its first AI acceleration engine, the Intel Core Ultra, featuring integrated NPU in December, its Microsoft Windows 12 certification remains a point of observation.

In a broader perspective, Intel and AMD are positioned to follow up with the AI PC trend by 2025. This coincides with the ending service of Windows 10 and the gradual implementation of Wifi 7 and 6G technologies. By 2028, they are expected to play a pivotal role in driving AI PC growth.

On another note, a South Korean analyst anticipates that the growth momentum in AI PCs hinges on when Apple incorporates AI features into Mac computers.

ARM vs. x86, Microsoft’s Crucial Role                                    

This is because Microsoft is set to launch Windows 12 next year, featuring the built-in Copilot AI assistant. It will collaborate with operating systems and software such as Windows, Edge, Microsoft 365, Outlook, and the Bing search engine, ushering in an entirely new AI-driven user experience.

Several tech giants are fiercely competing in the AI PC market, with NVIDIA and AMD investing in the development of Arm architecture processors. It’s worth mentioning that in 2016, Microsoft agreed to let Qualcomm exclusively develop Windows-compatible chips, and this agreement is set to expire in 2024. Consequently, Qualcomm may gain a strategic advantage. In contrast, the collaboration between NVIDIA and MediaTek on Arm processors might only begin to bear fruit in 2025.

As for AMD’s foray into Arm architecture research and development, whether this indicates a less optimistic outlook for the x86 market is a matter for ongoing observation. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger expressed that he isn’t concerned about Arm architecture processors vying in the PC market. From a different perspective, Intel may even consider assisting with manufacturing.

(Image: Qualcomm)

On August 3rd, India introduced a licensing regime for the import of laptops and tablets. However, it was swiftly postponed after facing criticism from the industry and the United States. The regime would have enabled the government to delay or reject import requests and required permits for each shipment.

In a recent development, the Indian government has decided to permit the unrestricted import of laptops and tablets and has initiated a new “authorization” system to monitor the shipment volumes of these devices without disrupting market supply.

Officials have announced that the new “Import Management System” will go into effect starting from November 1st, requiring companies to register their import quantities and values. This data will be used for monitoring purposes, although the government will not deny any import requests.

India’s Trade Secretary Sunil Barthwal announced during a press conference on Friday that there will be no restrictions placed on the import of laptops. He emphasized that the government’s intention is to closely monitor laptop importers rather than imposing restrictions.

This decision has come as a relief to global laptop manufacturers such as Dell, HP, Apple, Samsung, and Lenovo, who had been apprehensive since the announcement of the regime in August.

From April to August, India’s imports of electronic products and software, including laptops, tablets, and personal computers, amounted to $33.6 billion, marking an almost 8% growth compared to the previous year.

S. Krishnan, a senior official from the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, stated that the objective is to “ensure that we have all the data and information we need to have a fully credible digital system.”

The India Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) has expressed deep appreciation for the government’s recent decision to maintain unrestricted imports of laptops and tablets.

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• [News] Google Follows in Apple and Samsung’s Footsteps, Set to Manufacture Pixel 8 Series Phones in India

(Photo credit: Pixabay)

On October 2, 2023, the CEO of Alphabet announced that Google, under its umbrella, is partnering with the leading laptop brand, HP, to manufacture Chromebook laptops in India. This move comes at a time when Dell, Asus, and other laptop manufacturers have begun production in India. HP is leveraging its existing local factories and government incentives, aiming to capitalize on the vast population and educational opportunities in India. In a similar vein, Samsung and Google have collaborated in Vietnam to launch the Galaxy Chromebook Go, targeting the education sector. The Chromebook is gradually expanding its production and introduction to various regions.

TrendForce’s Insights:

1. Google Teams Up with HP to Launch Chromebook, Chromebook Plus Aims to Attract New Consumer Segments

Through the collaboration of HP, a dominant player in the global laptop market, and Google, renowned for its software expertise in the Chrome operating system, Chromebooks are set to be manufactured in India for the first time. This partnership leverages the power of two industry giants to produce Chromebooks locally, offering a cost-effective alternative to the long-standing dominance of white label tablets in India’s education market. Chromebooks, equipped with the Chrome OS, known for easy management and robust security, are set to benefit from government incentives and manufacturer collaborations, working together to create affordable, secure, and high-quality devices. This effort aims to enhance the learning experience for Indian students.

HP, since 2020, has been utilizing the Flex Ltd. factory in Chennai, India, for the production of laptops and desktops. On October 2, 2023, they extended their production line to include Chromebooks. The factory will assemble various types of devices, including laptops, desktops, and Chromebooks, all designed to cater to the local market’s needs. This move is expected to enhance HP’s brand value and market share in India.

In addition, Google and various leading brands launched the Chromebook Plus in the North American market on October 8, 2023. The new models come in screen sizes of 14 inches and 15.6 inches, boasting high-end hardware configurations and AI features. The base model starts at $399.99, with a price difference of less than $200 compared to conventional laptops currently sold in India. This suggests the possibility of local production for the Google Chromebook Plus in India, aiming to attract a diverse range of consumers.

2. Apart from India’s policies and incentives, Vietnam also Attracts Foreign Investment with EU Tariff Benefits and Low Labor Costs

India, with its population of 1.4 billion, presents a dual advantage of a vast labor force and a significant domestic market. After the successful local assembly of iPhones in India, the nation is taking strides toward its goal of local manufacturing. The Indian government has initiated the “Make in India” policy, aiming to entice the production, assembly, and shipment of more electronic end-products in the country. In August 2023, the Indian government announced a delayed implementation of import restrictions on computer products, with a decision pending a year later. Currently, many brand manufacturers can still import fully assembled products into India, temporarily avoiding the impact of high tariffs on imported materials and equipment. Brand manufacturers may also utilize this period to actively collaborate with the government in planning local production initiatives in the region.

Beyond India, numerous Taiwanese assembly plants have made investments in Vietnam. In contrast to India’s policy-driven approach to local manufacturing, Vietnam offers advantages such as EU tariff preferences and low labor costs. For example, Samsung has previously established its dominance in Vietnam by assembling panel modules and laptops. As a result, in collaboration with Google, they introduced the Galaxy Chromebook Go in Vietnam, targeting local markets with simplified, lower-end laptop configurations. It is speculated that other Taiwanese manufacturing plants in Vietnam will follow this operating model.

As the overall technological and industrial capabilities in Vietnam continue to improve, they are poised to take on mid to high-end laptop models by 2024-2025. While American brands continue to rely on China for the production of consumer and business laptops, the collaboration between Google Chromebook and other brand manufacturers in regions like India and Vietnam is expected to become increasingly close.