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AI fuels HBM/storage price hikes, pushing Memory revenue past Foundry. While weak mature nodes and capacity barriers slow Foundry, Memory's output efficiency and price volatility drive its market dominance through 2026.
Samsung rebounds via advanced nodes and US fab restart. SMIC and Nexchip enhance HV tech amid pricing pressure. HuaHong optimizes fab allocation. Smaller foundries slow expansion due to technical hurdles, showing a market split between advanced and mature nodes.
AI drives TSMC's expansion and upgraded targets. Vanguard sees rising utilization and prices via power ICs. UMC grows steadily, while PSMC rebounds through memory demand.
Driven by accelerated 8-inch capacity cuts by TSMC and Samsung, coupled with rising demand for AI power components and panic stocking across the supply chain, the global supply-demand structure for 8-inch wafers is tightening. This significant rebound in utilization rates has prompted major Chinese, Korean, and Taiwanese foundries to initiate price hike strategies.
Intel is expanding advanced packaging globally to secure CSP orders but trails TSMC in yield and turnkey solutions. Despite EMIB's technical challenges, the growing AI market offers opportunities for both, moving beyond a zero-sum game.
NVIDIA's H200 supply upside is limited by tight advanced packaging and memory capacity prioritized for new platforms. While targeting the Chinese market, geopolitical risks are driving China to accelerate domestic chip autonomy and in-house ASIC development, expanding local market share.
Samsung to focus on advanced nodes in 2026 with full capacity utilization; SMIC to raise 8-inch and memory foundry prices on strong demand; HuaHong to expand capacity and advance specialty platforms; GlobalFoundries to develop automotive BCD and 22nm Bulk CMOS to win orders; Nexchip to outperform peers on localization and ramp OLED driver IC mass production with tier-one customers.
TSMC reduces 8-inch capacity to focus on advanced processes; UMC sees rising utilization from AI and future Samsung transfer opportunities. Vanguard acquires TSMC's used equipment to meet strong power IC demand; PSMC advances projects and plans fab leasing to optimize profits.
Memory price surge continues into 1Q26, pushing BOM cost to a critical point. Brands freeze price cuts and downsize specifications, facing severe sales challenges.
The foundry sector is undergoing a broad realignment as mature nodes contract, product mixes shift upward, and Chinese demand supports steady growth. Advanced-node expansion continues to face technical constraints.
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