2026 Outlook: NVIDIA Strategy & China AI Autonomy

Last Modified

2026-01-06

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NVIDIA's H200 supply upside is limited by tight advanced packaging and memory capacity prioritized for new platforms. While targeting the Chinese market, geopolitical risks are driving China to accelerate domestic chip autonomy and in-house ASIC development, expanding local market share.

Key Highlights

Supply Chain Bottlenecks: H200 production upside is constrained by severe shortages in advanced packaging and HBM capacity, which are prioritized for new platforms like Blackwell.
Strategic Shift: NVIDIA is pivoting focus to next-gen platforms and rack-level solutions. The H200 is positioned mainly as a transitional product for the Chinese market rather than a long-term driver.
China's Self-Sufficiency: Driven by policy support for local suppliers and tech giants developing in-house ASICs to mitigate risks, China is accelerating its shift toward domestic chip autonomy

Introduction
- 2026 Projection on Distribution of H200 Demand
- Distribution of NVIDIA's High-End GPUs by Series, 2026
Additional Availability of H200 Expected to be Restricted as Tightened Capacity for Advanced Processes and CoWoS Prioritized for New Platforms
- Projected CoWoS Product Mix of TSMC (1Q24-4Q26)
Highly Constrained Memory Capacity to Restrict Flexibility of NVIDIA's Additional Orders for HBM3e 8hi

2026 Projection on Distribution of H200 Demand