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NVIDIA's H200 supply upside is limited by tight advanced packaging and memory capacity prioritized for new platforms. While targeting the Chinese market, geopolitical risks are driving China to accelerate domestic chip autonomy and in-house ASIC development, expanding local market share.
Samsung to focus on advanced nodes in 2026 with full capacity utilization; SMIC to raise 8-inch and memory foundry prices on strong demand; HuaHong to expand capacity and advance specialty platforms; GlobalFoundries to develop automotive BCD and 22nm Bulk CMOS to win orders; Nexchip to outperform peers on localization and ramp OLED driver IC mass production with tier-one customers.
TSMC reduces 8-inch capacity to focus on advanced processes; UMC sees rising utilization from AI and future Samsung transfer opportunities. Vanguard acquires TSMC's used equipment to meet strong power IC demand; PSMC advances projects and plans fab leasing to optimize profits.
Memory price surge continues into 1Q26, pushing BOM cost to a critical point. Brands freeze price cuts and downsize specifications, facing severe sales challenges.
The foundry sector is undergoing a broad realignment as mature nodes contract, product mixes shift upward, and Chinese demand supports steady growth. Advanced-node expansion continues to face technical constraints.
Benefiting from inventory stocking for smartphones and PCs alongside a recovery in automotive demand, the rebound in mature processes drove growth for UMC and HuaHong. TSMC's advanced processes and AI boosted Q3 production value, while Chinese foundry Nexchip climbed to eighth place, with a stable outlook for Q4.
Soaring memory prices increase system costs and retail prices, hurting the consumer market. TrendForce thus lowered 2026 shipment forecasts for smartphones, notebooks, and game consoles. Game console makers may abandon price cuts due to costs, shifting to high-price, profit-preserving strategies.
Global foundry markets show steady demand and diverse capacity as leaders push advanced processes and packaging amid geopolitics.
Advanced-process expansion and layouts for both Chinese foundries and GlobalFoundries, stressing supply autonomy and cross-border investment amid strategic shifts for long-term needs.
AI-driven demand push chiplet-based packaging; EMIB costs less than CoWoS, signaling a move to modular, efficient interconnects.
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