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Driven by AI and new smartphone momentum, 2025 global foundry revenue hit record highs, with TSMC extending its market lead via advanced processes. For 2026, despite pre-stocking triggered by anticipated price hikes, AI remains the primary growth engine, while the sustainability of 2H consumer demand warrants close monitoring.
Market outlook diverges: Samsung accelerates US expansion despite yield risks. Rising memory costs slow SMIC and Nexchip, while AI orders boost HuaHong. GlobalFoundries significantly increases capex for localization in US and EU.
AI fuels HBM/storage price hikes, pushing Memory revenue past Foundry. While weak mature nodes and capacity barriers slow Foundry, Memory's output efficiency and price volatility drive its market dominance through 2026.
Samsung rebounds via advanced nodes and US fab restart. SMIC and Nexchip enhance HV tech amid pricing pressure. HuaHong optimizes fab allocation. Smaller foundries slow expansion due to technical hurdles, showing a market split between advanced and mature nodes.
AI drives TSMC's expansion and upgraded targets. Vanguard sees rising utilization and prices via power ICs. UMC grows steadily, while PSMC rebounds through memory demand.
Driven by accelerated 8-inch capacity cuts by TSMC and Samsung, coupled with rising demand for AI power components and panic stocking across the supply chain, the global supply-demand structure for 8-inch wafers is tightening. This significant rebound in utilization rates has prompted major Chinese, Korean, and Taiwanese foundries to initiate price hike strategies.
Intel is expanding advanced packaging globally to secure CSP orders but trails TSMC in yield and turnkey solutions. Despite EMIB's technical challenges, the growing AI market offers opportunities for both, moving beyond a zero-sum game.
NVIDIA's H200 supply upside is limited by tight advanced packaging and memory capacity prioritized for new platforms. While targeting the Chinese market, geopolitical risks are driving China to accelerate domestic chip autonomy and in-house ASIC development, expanding local market share.
Samsung to focus on advanced nodes in 2026 with full capacity utilization; SMIC to raise 8-inch and memory foundry prices on strong demand; HuaHong to expand capacity and advance specialty platforms; GlobalFoundries to develop automotive BCD and 22nm Bulk CMOS to win orders; Nexchip to outperform peers on localization and ramp OLED driver IC mass production with tier-one customers.
TSMC reduces 8-inch capacity to focus on advanced processes; UMC sees rising utilization from AI and future Samsung transfer opportunities. Vanguard acquires TSMC's used equipment to meet strong power IC demand; PSMC advances projects and plans fab leasing to optimize profits.
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