Global NEV Sales to Grow 14% in 2026; USMCA Renegotiation Poses Critical Risk to Auto Industry, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest findings have revealed that global sales of NEVs, including BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, reached 20.53 million units in 2025, up 26% YoY. 

Growth is expected to moderate in 2026. With China’s market expansion slowing, global NEV sales are projected to reach 23.4 million units, representing a reduced growth rate of 14% YoY.

China accounted for approximately 66% of global NEV sales in 2025. However, its annual growth slowed to 24% due to a high comparison base, putting it slightly below the global average.

Western Europe, in contrast, recorded nearly 30% YoY growth, marking its strongest performance since 2022.

BYD (brand) surpasses Tesla to lead global BEV sales in 2025

In the 2025 BEV rankings, BYD (brand) posted approximately 25% YoY growth, overtaking Tesla to claim the top position. 

Tesla experienced an estimated 9% annual decline, reflecting limited momentum in product refreshes. SAIC-GM-Wuling maintained third place, while Geely climbed to fourth, driven by strong demand for its sub-CNY 100,000 Xingyuan model. Geely’s market share surged from 3% to 6%. 

Xiaomi also saw rapid gains, doubling its share from 1% to 3% to rank eighth.

Although Volkswagen recorded overall sales growth, continued weakness in China led to a decline in ranking and market share. In an effort to reposition itself, Volkswagen launched its China-focused sub-brand ID.UNYX and deepened collaboration with Xpeng. Jointly developed models will enter the market in 1Q26, marking a strategic reset in China.

Geely rises to no.2 in the PHEV segment on Galaxy Series strength

In the PHEV segment, BYD maintained leadership with approximately 31.5% market share in 2025. However, it recorded its first decline in both sales volume and share, while group-level share stood at around 36%.

Geely advanced to second place with 6.3% share, supported by its Galaxy lineup. Both BYD and Geely, as large automotive groups, benefit from strong cost control and advantages in resource integration. 

By contrast, Li Auto, the 2024 runner-up, faced intensified competition in China and slower overseas expansion. Its 2025 sales fell approximately 30%, dropping to fifth place. The company is ramping up investment in AI-driven vehicle technologies to regain competitiveness.

TrendForce highlights significant policy changes across major markets in 2026:

• China is shifting subsidies from fixed-amount incentives to price-based percentages, potentially disadvantaging lower-priced models.
• The United States will no longer provide federal EV subsidies.
• Germany has reinstated subsidies without country-of-origin restrictions, which may benefit Chinese-made EVs.

A key inflection point will arrive on July 1, when renewal negotiations for the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement (USMCA) reach a critical stage. The U.S. is widely expected to push for revised terms. If Washington ultimately opts for an aggressive withdrawal, cross-border logistics costs would surge, disrupt established production efficiencies, and significantly weaken the long-term competitiveness of the North American automotive supply chain.

EVs, given their high degree of intelligent system integration, require substantial volumes of high-capacity, high-bandwidth memory. As a result, the segment is particularly exposed to memory price increases and supply volatility.
However, memory accounts for only 1–5% of total vehicle material costs. Amid intensifying competition in smart vehicle capabilities, automakers are prioritizing supply stability to ensure timely product launches and continuous feature upgrades.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of ICT Applications Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at TRI_MI@trendforce.com

For additional insights from TrendForce analysts on the latest tech industry news, trends, and forecasts, please visit our blog at https://www.trendforce.com/news/