China’s EV Cell Prices Rebound; Modest Increase Expected in 2026, Says TrendForce

TrendForce’s latest “Lithium Battery Industry Chain Monthly Price Report” indicates that China’s EV battery market stayed strong in November 2025. Despite the usual off-season, automakers' continued aggressive stocking kept demand high. 

Meanwhile, prices for essential inputs such as cathode materials, electrolytes, and copper and aluminum foil surged sharply, raising material costs and driving up EV cell prices. Notably, cobalt-rich NCM cells experienced the largest price increase.

TrendForce reports that average NCM cell prices climbed across all formats in November. NCM square cells reached CNY 0.48/Wh, up 6.7% MoM, while NCM pouch cells averaged CNY 0.50/Wh, up 4.2% MoM. Square LFP cells remained relatively stable at CNY 0.34/Wh, unchanged from October. With automakers expected to complete most of their year-end stocking ahead of schedule, demand for EV batteries may ease slightly in December. However, given continued upstream material inflation, EV cell prices are still forecast to rise modestly.

ESS cell prices holding steady with potential rise ahead

In November, ESS cell prices remained stable, buoyed by stronger-than-expected demand in the latter half of 2025. Leading manufacturers are already adjusting their 2026 shipment goals upward, indicating strong confidence in next year’s market expansion. Additionally, large-capacity (over 500 Ah) ESS cells are approaching mass deployment, with CATL having already shipped cells at the gigawatt-hour scale with a capacity of 587 Ah. TrendForce anticipates a continued increase in the share of 500+ Ah products in total industry shipments in 2026.

Currently, ESS cell producers are operating with full order books and high-capacity utilization rates, thereby helping to stabilize prices. Nonetheless, rising raw-material costs are increasing procurement pressure, suggesting a mild upward trend in ESS-cell pricing through subsequent quarters.

TrendForce notes that both the EV and ESS sectors experienced strong momentum in 2H25, with remarkably rapid expansion in the ESS segment. This growth has fueled significant price increases for lithium, cobalt, copper, and other metals critical to li-ion battery manufacturing. 

For example, cobalt prices have continued to climb since March due to changes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo’s export policies—now up more than 140% from their annual low—thereby driving NCM cathode material prices higher as well.
Other battery materials also saw sharp increases amid strong seasonal demand and tightening supply. Notably, LiPF₆ and vinylene carbonate (VC) surged more than 230% and 260%, respectively, between July and November.

Looking ahead to 2026, TrendForce expects demand for both EV and ESS batteries to remain healthy. Suppliers of key battery materials, including cathodes, anodes, separators, and electrolytes, have already announced planned price adjustments, with some negotiations finalized and set to take effect in new-year contracts. As a result, TrendForce forecasts a modest rise in EV cell prices in 2026.

For more information on reports and market data from TrendForce’s Department of Green Energy Research, please click here, or email the Sales Department at GER_MI@trendforce.com

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